21/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Classic day

The Belmont Winter Carnival continues on Saturday where it is Belmont Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

Tricky race to start the day. 7 Raise A Smile (Bet Now: $2.90) is the one I’ll just go the way of. This girl is on the quick back up after winning at this track/distance last Wednesday where she came with a well timed run under Pike to surge hard late and get the win. More depth here, but time was pretty good and she should get a good run off the pace.

1 Misty Metal (Bet Now: $4.00) is the best horse in the race and with that being the case, she has to carry the top weight. She ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and led all the way in a dominant display under Kate Witten, controlling things in front and kicking hard late to draw clear. She’ll be more dynamic at the shorter trip…just has to carry the weight.

3 Thunderstrut (Bet Now: $6.50) is the map horse. She ran fourth to Misty Metal in that race mentioned above and for mine will be better with a sit on that filly. She sat outside Misty Metal and tried to go with her but couldn’t go on with it when tiring. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing and should get the box seat run.

4 Essential Spice (Bet Now: $3.30) on top but with not much confidence. She was heavily backed when racing over 1000m here a fortnight ago where she led all the way and to the eye, it was ugly viewing. It was only the bob of the head that got her the win and she staggered in. But that day, the track was genuinely wet so it would have felt like 1100, possibly 1200. Still, there are queries on her at the trip, but she’s the one on form.

1 Kiss The Breeze (Bet Now: $8.50) has had little to no luck this time in and that’s the case once again with another tough draw. He’s two runs this time in have seen him do a power of work on speed and just feel the pinch late. The thing in his favour is that he’s got an 1100m win under the belt and there is no doubting he’ll be hard fit for the 1200m assignment.

3 Party Night (Bet Now: $126.00) started long odds in the Essential Spice race where he was first up but his chances were gone after a couple of strides given he was tardy away and had to settle out the back, not coming on at all. Blinkers Off now so hopefully that’ll get him more focus of the surroundings and his form from last prep reads well.

I’ll give 4 Snow Lord (Bet Now: $9.50) another chance. He is on the seven day back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday on the wet track where he was wide no cover and didn’t look entirely happy on the shifty track behind Swift Sis. Back to 1000m on firmer footing (hopefully) with the claim, he should sit off Undisclosed and prove hard to beat.

9 Undisclosed (Bet Now: $6.00) does look the leader and will give a great sight. She showed dazzling gate speed to lead at this track/distance two weeks ago and tried hard but just tired late when third to Ambiente. Should find the front comfortably from the inside gate and I think she’ll be much better on top of the ground if the rain stays away.

5 Bombs Away (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of War Chant resuming for the Lindsey Smith team. This bloke has been off the scene for around six months, with his form being a long time ago, so it’ll be interesting to see how he goes here, but he looked to trial alright recently at Lark Hill, and is a noted fresh performer, plus he likes Belmont.

2 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $4.40) is absolutely flying at the moment for Adam Durrant. Brilliant win two back at Northam before being given a three week break. He then raced at Pinjarra where he got a mile back and looked no hope on the turn but once he got clear air, gee he savaged the line and was most impressive. Handles all conditions, so if we get rain, it won’t harm his chances.

4 Stoicsim (Bet Now: $6.00) is a definite threat for me. This bloke resumed over 1400m here last Saturday where he didn’t look entirely happy on the surface but despite that he worked home quite well late in the piece behind Atlanta Blue. Up to the mile is a big tick and he can pull out a decent run second up. Happy to include him.

1 Taxadermy (Bet Now: $5.00) is three weeks between runs for the Lindsey Smith yard since resuming at this track/distance where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a pretty decent kick but just felt the pinch late when fourth to Bella’s Idol. Tick over trial at Lark Hill looked quite good and has placed three from five second up.

1 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $1.55) should be taking care of this lot. The win, against similar/weaker opposition, in the Aquanita was dominant and he looked to do it with something in reserve to the eye. State Prosecutor tried to run him down but he was comfortably holding and I suspect something identical will occur.

I think it will be Pike magic that helps 2 State Prosecutor (Bet Now: $3.10), because I think that’s the only way he can turn the tables. Got a mile back in the Aquanita and ran home well, but the winner just had the break and was holding. If he could sit closer in the run, then perhaps race on, but the Durrant runner does look a pure stayer.

8 Habesha (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a nice progressive filly for Justin Warwick on the quick back up after racing over the mile here last Wednesday where she was a good thing beaten, getting badly held up in the straight when appearing to be bolting and when clear she savaged the line to just miss. Confident she’ll run the trip and has upside.

Hard to get away from 2 Red Army (Bet Now: $2.10). Was all over him when having his first run at 2000m a fortnight back and for a few strides in the straight there was cause for concern because he was strongly challenged but he lifted late and proved too good. I think he’ll eat up the extra furlong and prove hard to beat.

3 Witness In Court (Bet Now: $13.00) ran third to Red Army in that race mentioned above and I thought his effort was quite good. He probably should have finished a touch closer but was never going to win. Just got a mile out his ground but kept finding the line to run third, albeit four lengths from the winner. Doubt he turns the tables but should run well again.

8 New Age (Bet Now: $9.00) 8was hard in the market in the Red Army race and I’d be willing to forgive him for the failure. He was up on speed and did do some work to get there, plus I don’t think he pulled up 100% post race. Pike remains on and start prior, he was dominant on a soft track at Pinjarra, so he ticks that box.

14 Yindi (Bet Now: $4.00) looks one of the best bets right across Australia, not just Belmont. Those dreaded bar plates came off first up last Wednesday over 1200m when first up here and it was there for all to see. Outstanding turn of foot and won with a fair bit of ease on the line. This doesn’t look a strong race and I’m all over him.

1 Kramden (Bet Now: $15.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a spell, both coming at this track/distance. Sprouted wings to win fresh before racing here two weeks ago and finishing off with purpose to run third to Great Again. Wide gate is no issue because he’ll get back anyway. But can he given Yindi a start and beating? I think not. Still, he’s going too well to ignore.

9 Cardup Legend (Bet Now: $67.00) could be the big improver. Been on him both runs this time in and while it only reads eighth and fifth, his efforts have been quite good given he did have over two years off. He is a 1200m winner and being third up now, he should be close to peak fitness and there are enough signs to suggest he’s come back okay.

Landed with 4 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $4.20) in the get out. Adam Durrant trains this gelding, who is third up from a break now so he should be hard fit and ready to go. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and for mine I thought he was ridden a touch too close on the speed and just didn’t see it out when fourth to Gunnago. He’ll be better with a more conservative steer.

8 Abdicator (Bet Now: $2.05) is three weeks between runs since resuming over 1300m here where he had the box seat sit but just got slightly held up early on in the straight. He was out in time and had his chance to finish off when third to Seeker. 2/2 at the trip, 2/2 second up and Pike jumps on, so he’s very likeable.

10 Adrian Makfi (Bet Now: $61.00) is a son of Makfi for Jim Taylor who is second up here. He resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back and was okay without setting the world on fire when fifth to the in form Great Again. Most of his race has come in the northern part of WA and hasn’t really been tested in town but he’s a three time 1400m winner and should get a soft run from the draw.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Yindi

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Come Play With Me

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 4 Snow Lord

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 14

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10

$50 Investment= 250% of the dividend if successful

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