21/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Railway Stakes day

The Masters at Ascot begins this Saturday with the best race meeting Perth has to offer, Railway Stakes Day, with the 1600m Group l being the feature. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Think if this becomes a sit/sprint then 3 Long Beach (Bet Now: $1.90) is clearly the one to beat. Team Williams trained gelding that was 1200m back to 1100m when racing here two weeks ago and worked home well without threatening behind Elite Street. Back up to 1200m and I think the small field will help his cause.

5 Boomtastic (Bet Now: $3.80) has improvement to come for Simon Miller. Both runs this time in have seen her beaten fair and square by Elite Street, the latest being two weeks ago when near the speed and fighting on okay to finish a close up fifth. Hard fit now and back to this sort of depth, a win wouldn’t totally shock with her.

1 Carocapo (Bet Now: $13.00) might need one more but he does have the class/quality to measure up. Resumed four weeks ago at this track/distance when leading and tiring late in a somewhat disappointing resumption behind Laverrod. Think a rise to 1400m would help his cause, but the small field offsets that query somewhat.

12 Heavenly Waters (Bet Now: $16.00) looks a sharp filly. Just one trial to go off, but it was an impressive trial win at Albany several weeks ago, leading throughout and what I liked is that when she was asked for an effort, the response was instant and she drew clear. Don’t think this race has any standouts so she doesn’t need to be anything special to measure up.

I’m giving 5 Liwa (Bet Now: $4.00) another chance. Simon Miller trained filly that had trialled up very nicely prior to her debut here two weeks ago where she seemed to lob into the right spot just off the speed and on face value, her finale was disappointing. Had trialled up too well prior to sack off her off one run and she’s in the right camp.

11 Flying Missile (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Cable Bay filly on debut for Neville Parnham. She comes into this off the back of just one 400m trial, so it’s hard to get a real gauge on her ability, but she won the trial and ran solid time relative to the morning. Has gate one to use, which is a big bonus for her, and stable have a good record with their juveniles.

Think with Pike electing to ride 4 Midnight Blue (Bet Now: $2.60), that’s the lead for me. He and Adornment clashed over 1800m here two weeks ago, and thanks to a ripping steer from Ramoly, Midnight Blue was able to get a dream inside split, dash through and win. Pike takes over and in what could be the start of a big day for him, I’ll be in his corner.

6 Come Right Back (Bet Now: $4.20) has been in work a fair while for Adam Durrant but is just racing so well and holding his form. Could easily make a case that he should have won a fortnight back. Just got stuck behind tired ones and P Hall had to wait for the run to open while Treasured Crown was out wide and had built up full momentum and on the line, that was the difference. Just has to keep holding his form to go close.

9 British Bessy (Bet Now: $18.00) can bounce back here. Comes through the Treasured Crown race above from a fortnight back where she was back near last in the run throughout and never really threatened in a disappointing effort considering she had a $5 SP. Her best is clearly good enough to beat these, so she deserves another chance.

Fitter and up to 1200m, I’ll go the way of 7 Just A Pinch (Bet Now: $26.00) for the Casey camp. Was seven weeks between runs when racing over 1000m here on Cup Day and really liked the way she warmed to the task late when third to Acromantula. Yet to prove herself at 1200m, but gets gate one and the tempo will likely ensure it becomes a sit/sprint.

4 Chantorque (Bet Now: $3.50) is a beauty for Russell Stewart. Three weeks between runs since scoring a dominant win over 1000m, sitting outside Charleton Eddie and simply proving too strong for that galloper. Hard to see the tables being turned there, and this girl did hold a nomination for the Jungle Mist, so stable must be thinking she’s going well.

Gee I’ve been disappointed by 3 Queen Brown (Bet Now: $5.50) but she does drop a fair way in depth/grade here. Raced in the Burgess Queen on Cup Day and yes, was held up for a few strides, but overall, she had her chance and was ordinary. I thought she could be a Kingston Town horse, so she has let me down, but can win this if she brought her best.

5 Sweet Dreamin’ (Bet Now: $8.00) has returned in super order for Holly Locke and third up here, think he’s hard to beat. Ran over 1200m here three weeks ago and wound up with real purpose late when a closing second to In Love With Paris. His overall 1400m record isn’t too flash, but off last run, he should be fine.

8 Tiff Has Spoken (Bet Now: $3.00) is a Sharon Miller trained mare that is second up here after resuming at this track/distance two weeks ago where she got off the speed and tried hard when she presented and kicked, but had no answers for the brilliant finale produced by Point Taken. She’ll come on from that and is a second up winner.

9 Always On Call (Bet Now: $81.00) is one that can add value to multiples. Justin Warwick trained mare that has had two runs back from a spell, and while each time she hasn’t threatened to win, I thought first up she did make up ground late. Last start, she ran her race behind the barriers, so the mounting yard and how she parades will be crucial as to how strong her winning claims are.

I think you have to cop the tip that the stable have scratched Magical Dream so that 17 Western Empire (Bet Now: $6.50) gets a run and with that, he’s one of the hardest to beat despite being a maiden and only having his third start here. He was excellent in the Fairetha last time out, closing off with purpose to just miss out on the win. He’s a good one and is the one to beat.

14 Brave Angel (Bet Now: $8.50) is another that I think could measure up in the Kingston Town. Was on her in the Champion Fillies last Saturday and not sure she was 100% happy on the bog track but stayed on and was good in defeat behind Watch Me Dance. Lightly raced, but very promising and is a leading contender here.

This looks a real plan and target for 7 Phanta (Bet Now: $15.00). Impressive maiden win in September and was immediately kept on ice. Resumed in the Fairetha where he led at a good clip and tried very hard but felt the pinch late when fourth. He’ll likely lead this field up and look the winner for a long way. Last bit is the query.

8 Tycoon Storm (Bet Now: $4.00) lacks the class of some of these, but she is just so genuine. Likely has eyes towards the Jungle Dawn and maybe even the Starstruck, but she is sharp enough to beat these. Last start saw her record an impressive win over 1500m here. Gets a lovely run from the gate and will be strong at the end.

1 Flower Of War (Bet Now: $2.70) is back to Mares grade and I think this is her sweet spot. She’s not quite up to the top level but in these Mares races, with her on speed racing pattern, she’s very hard to beat, so I’m happy to ignore her Prince Of Wales run from three weeks ago and now back to this level, she can bounce back for sure.

11 Miss Frost (Bet Now: $13.00) tends to save her best for 1000m, but if she can get a decent drag up into the race, she has the turn of foot that can see her win this. Was excellent from the back three weeks ago over 1000m here when third, clocking some of the best late splits of the meeting. Just needs things to fall into place.

Pike gave up the ride on Arcadia Queen in the Mackinnon for the Railway and spending two weeks in quarantine, so with that in mind, I’m clearly in the corner of 11 Inspirational Girl (Bet Now: $3.90). She fits the profile of these Bob Peters runners. Gradually go through the grades and when throw in the deep end, they measure up, and she was outstanding in the Asian Beau. She’s the one they have to beat.

4 Kay Cee (Bet Now: $6.00) is the Kingston Town horse for me. She’ll need to be every bit as good as we think she is. She did the right thing for me in the Kingston Town last year and looks spot on for that race in 2020, but is still a leading chance here because her win two weeks ago in the Lee Steere was impressive and was strong to the line.

8 Red Can Man (Bet Now: $8.50) i think if he’s to win the race, he’ll need to do no work in the run and relax. He can get quite keen in the run and that has been his downfall recently when it comes to measuring up to the better performed horses, so this is a great test for him, but ability wise, he’s up to these and is a winning threat.

9 Laverrod (Bet Now: $2.90) can bounce back in this kind of race. Was on trial for a start in the Railway but his Lee Steere run was a howler. On speed and was a beaten horse 500m out in a very ordinary effort. He has credits in the bank and is much better than what he showed last time out so he has to be given another chance.

7 Money Maher (Bet Now: $23.00) is one I can entertain here. Three weeks between runs since contesting the Asian Beau where he was just off the speed and seemed to have his chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Inspirational Girl. He was first up there with improvement to come so he’s a winning threat.

11 Son Of Bacchus (Bet Now: $34.00) is a knockout chance here. Needed the run fresh behind Elite Street before going to the Asian Beau where he was more than sound in defeat in a hot race won by Inspirational Girl, who will likely be favourite for the Railway, so the form is A1, his third up record is super, run of the race from the draw…hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 17 Western Empire

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Long Beach

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 12 Heavenly Waters

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 17

Leg Two: 1, 8, 9, 11

Leg Three: 4, 8, 11, 13, 14

Leg Four: 2, 7, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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