21/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Caulfield Cup day

A bumper ten event meeting has been set down for Caulfield on Saturday for Caulfield Cup Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Caulfield Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Caulfield Cup

6 Kandinsky Abstract (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a fair amount of hype on him due to the lofty price tag but I think you can make genuine excuses for him in all three runs. Back on a leaders track fresh in the San Domenico before going down the straight his next two at Flemington and IMO, you can safely say he doesn’t handle the straight track. Back on a bending track, 1400m, I think you have to give him another look.

1 The Instructor (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has ticked the 1400m box, which means he is one of the leading contenders. That 1400m box tick was last start at Sandown where he was on speed and credit to him, he was there to be run down but he found plenty under pressure to fend them off and was strong to the line, so with that in mind, 1400m here is fine and with the racing style, he appeals.

3 Kaizad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat here for GaiBott. He ran in a 1400m maiden last Wednesday at Warwick Farm where he was on speed throughout and seemingly moved quite well. He was under some pressure at the top of the straight but as the race went on, he got better and was dominant late. He has the 1400m lead ins under the belt and with a good racing style, he’ll look the winner for a long way.

2 Riff Rocket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be taking care of these, all things being equal. He is following the path of Mr Maestro from last year, who won the Super Impose with quality before winning this race. But, the win of Riff Rocker was much more arrogant and with such authority the way he put them away. Off that, an extra 200m is no issue and provided he gets around Caulfield find, he should be far too good for these.

3 Apulia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one with upside and improvement I feel. Just found The Valley not to his liking two back behind Fistsoffury before going to the Super impose where he got too far back but did make up solid headway behind Riff Rocket. Doubt he turns the tables but fitter, up to 2000m, more positive ride, he can run an improved race.

6 Gates (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 2000m for Moody/Coleman. Son of Frankel that resumed over 1500m at Sandown where he got better as the race went on and albeit the margin was narrow, the win had good merit. Has upside, trip no issue IMO…doubt he wins but a first four threat.

8 Wings Of Song (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be heading in the right direction for Patrick Payne and I think up to 2000m is a big, big tick. She has run over the mile her past two, the latest at The Valley where she kept finding the line, just missing out on the win when second to Konasana. Looking for more ground, which she gets here, and with upside/progression, she appeals.

Class will carry 1 Tropical Squall (Bet Now:  $SP.00) a long way towards victory. She is three weeks between runs since leading throughout at a solid clip to win the Flight Stakes at Randwick. She was there to be beaten but she just kept chipping away to fend them off. Them…wasn’t a strong bunch, so that is the query, but she has runs on the board and will be out of trouble on speed.

7 Basillina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a progressive filly for Team Browne. She is another with two 1600m runs under the belt. She comes through the Edward Manifold where she got too far back and didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight but she wasn’t too bad to/through the line, suggesting a rise in trip will suit and seems to have petrol left in the tank.

Going to take a chance with 1 Arkansaw Kid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Team Hayes. He is five weeks between runs since a down the track effort in the Poseidon at Flemington but did pull up post race with Cardiac Arrhythmia, so a clear forgive run. Tick over jumpout last week at Flemington was strong where Olly rode and he sticks for this. Maps to do no work and off his 2YO form, he has to rate highly as a key winning chance.

2 Don Corleone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality colt for Team Snowden that has runs on the board and should prove hard to beat. He comes through the Danehill where he was 1400m back to 1100m and just found them a bit sharp but stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Stretan Angel. Gets back up in trip, Zahra sticks, he maps to get a suck run and has class. Leading chance.

3 Treasurway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) also comes through the Danehill and I didn’t think she was too bad. She got back in the run and was held up for a few strides but managed to get clear and was solid late without threatening behind Stretan Angel. Not sure she is good enough to win but for wider exotics, she can certainly be entertained.

12 Lovely Lookin’ (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a pretty decent looking filly for Andrew Gluyas. Market said she was unbeatable three weeks ago on the Parks track and once she found the front, it was race over and she gapped them, winning by a space and had something in hand to my eye. Heading in the right direction and no reason why she can’t win again despite the grade/depth rise.

2 Bossy Nic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous. Team McEvoy trained filly was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Scarborough but despite having no friends in the market, she ran a very credible race when closing off nicely to run third, beaten just under a length. Has good room for improvement and should be stronger than most at the end.

1 Lazzago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is back on track for Chris Waller. This filly was far from disgraced when racing in Sydney before being freshened up and racing in the Sacrborough at The Valley where she was somewhat luckless in the straight and I think you can make a case to say that with clear air, she wins instead of a fourth to Coeur Volante. Bigger track, better for the run, she’ll be hard to hold out.

I am very keen to bet up on 6 Spacewalk (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He looks a different/better horse this prep. Trial work was super and there was just so much arrogance about the first up win at Warwick Farm. Genuine tempo he’ll sit off and will be stronger than most at the end. I can easily mark him odds on and he only has to run up to the first up win to make a mess of this lot.

1 Lofty Strike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality sprinter for Julius Sandhu that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since The Goodwood at Morphettville where he got too far back in the run but was very good late in the piece when a close up fourth. He is a bomb fresh horse who has jumped out well and does have a liking for this track. Similar to Spacewalk, he’ll sit off a good speed and launch at them late.

3 Indian Pacific (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a marvel for Neville Parnham and he makes another trek to Victoria from Perth. He resumes, having not raced since New Years Day when a close up fifth to How’s The Serenity in the Summer Scorcher at Ascot. Jumped out well at Flemington and 1000m horse in a 1000m race = good recipe. Dangerous at odds.

1 Madame Pommery (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won the Thousand Guineas this time last year and I reckon she’s well placed to take out this event. Her run was full of merit in the Epsom three weeks ago after getting a mile back in the run. She made up good headway against the pattern behind stablemate Rediener. Has gate one to settle just off the speed, J Mac on and back to Mares grade, she appeals big time.

2 Skew Wiff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an element of class about her and that will carry her a long way being a last start Group l winner at Hastings, beating home Legarto, a star mare, so we know how strong that is, and despite being a late scratching at Flemington, her work since has been quite encouraging. I think watch the market and see what it does.

9 Call Di (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door for Ryan/Alexiou. This mare was unwanted in betting two weeks ago in The Nivison but she was far from disgraced in defeat against the pattern behind the heavily backed Magic Time, beaten just over three lengths. Much better set up this time around and I think with a more positive ride, she’ll certainly run a positive race.

I actually think 6 Fender (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a small speck at a likely decent price. He comes through a sit/sprint in the Gilgai where he just wasn’t suited by that race shape and down the straight. He copped a bad squeeze as well, which sealed his fate. I think he can run a much improved race up to 1400m and back onto a bending track. Worth a throw at the stumps each way.

5 Umgawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Team Corstens. He comes through the Tamerlane race from two weeks at Flemington where he wasn’t suited by the race shape but I really liked the way he finished his race off to run third. Ran well here the start prior and I think with a half positive ride, I think he’s good enough to win this.

2 The Fortune Teller (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This guy needed the run fresh in the Bill Ritchie behind subsequent Epsom winner Rediener. He then went to Flemington a fortnight back and was good in a sit/sprint behind all the way winner Tamerlane. Hard fit now, stable in form and strikes a very winnable Stakes race.

1 Gold Trip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) proved last year that he can run in all three majors and be more than competitive. All the talk, from Mark Zahra (riding Without A Fight) post Turnbull, was run in the Cox Plate but I am glad he is running here. The Turnbull win…it was Winx-esque in terms of the turn of foot and arrogance of putting the race to bed so easily. Yes, poorly weighted compared to those from the Turnbull leading into this, but I think he can overcome that and still win.

8 Soulcombe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has this nasty habit of flopping out the gates and giving away a head start. That said, he is absolutely flying at present and his runs in both the Underwood and Turnbull have been more than sound. Crying out for 2400m, he’s weighted to win it…I just don’t think he can give them a start and a beating so he is going to need a ripping steer from Williams.

Those in the know in Japan say the Melbourne Cup is the race for 3 Breakup (Bet Now:  $SP.00), but IMO, I think 2400m is his sweet spot. His Timeform ratings/data suggest 3200m will be his go, but IMO, I reckon he will be much better placed here. The depth won’t be as deep compared to the first Tuesday in November, he’ll be strong at the end and we know how good the Japanese are in this race.

5 Viviane (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Matty Ellerton and is showing a real liking for Caulfield. Several weeks between runs since winning over 1100m here. She landed on speed and credit to her, she found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win, making it five wins on the bounce. Good test here against some likely types but hard to knock the way she’s racing.

8 Willinga Beast (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for Kris Lees that comes into this off a freshen up after resuming at Rosehill on Sep 9 where she had a suck run in transit from gate one and battled away gamely in defeat behind Red Card, who dominated from the front and gave nothing else a look in. Tick over trial at Newcastle was very sharp and back to Mares grade, she appeals.

3 Vespertine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality mare for Grahame Begg that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since the Glasshouse at the Sunny Coast during the Winter Carnival when back and making up minor headway without threatening behind Irish Songs. I reckon she has eyes on Cup Week at Flemington but has run well at Caulfield and has a good fresh record. Leading contender so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Spacewalk

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Riff Rocket

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 6 Fender

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 8

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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