The Ascot carnival swings into top gear on Saturday with a cracking ten race program, highlighted by the $1 Million Group One Carlton Draught Railway Stakes (1600m) with the boom horse Ranger the punters elect ahead of the up and comer Luckygray, who has won six of eight career starts, including an arrogant last start effort over 1400m.
In other key races, Ortensia will look to remain unbeaten under the care of Paul Messara when she lines up in the $500,000 Group One Burswood Winterbottom Stakes (1200m) while Rons Call, King Saul and Shining Knight dominate betting in the $350,000 Group Two Sky Racing W.A. Guineas (1600m).
Race One: Crown Lager Handicap 1400m
Back Me: Classic Emblem did plenty wrong yet proved too good when winning on debut in a very strong race over 1100m. Extra 300m looks perfect for him.
Don’t Back Me: Keepers Court was awesome last start, but there appears to be some depth here, so he does look a risk.
Big Danger: Say Stars made up good ground behind Classic Emblem and she will also appreciate the rise in distance.
Roughie: Democratism tried to lead throughout in a much tougher race last start and weakened. Should get the soft run from the gun barrier and looks a place chance.
Race Two: Pure Blonde Handicap (74) 1100m
Back Me: Morning Mist had the perfect run and drew away for a top win first up. She’ll get the same scenario here and she is the one to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Tenacious Dane was exactly that when winning last start at Bunbury, but even with the claim she looks poorly weighted.
Big Danger: Success Park is in the same boat as the top pick. He’ll get the soft run and prove hard to beat with luck in running.
Roughie: Pribyl has trialled nicely leading up for this and from barrier one, he may finish top four if he can get a clear run.
Race Three: Corona (BM68+) 1400m
Back Me: Pin Rouge has the form on the board behind Westriver Kevydonn. Drawn perfectly here, looks the winner.
Don’t Back Me: Forever Special is knocking on the door to win, but she might be looking for further now.
Big Danger: Mcscar got out late and hit the line hard late last start. 1400m suits and look for him late.
Roughie: The old boy Oscar Wildly got back to winning form at Pinjarra and is always near the money in these type of races.
Race Four: Carbine Club Of Wa Stakes 1400m
Back Me: Grey Monarch looks a good thing against this lot. Ran very well last week in the R.J. Peters and the class drop, the weight…just find the best price available.
Don’t Back Me: Philby was excellent in the Lee Steere at WFA behind Ranger, but he has been up for a long time. That is the main concern.
Big Danger: Wolfe Dreams looks the big improver. Should get the lead on a platter and watch out. He’ll give cheek if left alone.
Roughie: Dempsey has been unplaced in all three first up runs, but his barrier trial effort suggests he may change that.
Race Five: Tattersall’s Cup 2100m
Back Me: There’s something wrong if Saint Encosta doesn’t win here. Top effort behind Fawkner on Oaks day and only has to cope with the bad alley to spank these.
Don’t Back Me: Western Jewel didn’t have much luck last week, but when Pike jumps off, you know the horse should be left out.
Big Danger: God Has Spoken does have class and that will carry him a long way here. All three runs in Melbourne were super and he’ll love a return back home.
Roughie: Guest Wing didn’t look comfortable inside horses last start and the wide barrier will help his cause. Expect him to bounce back.
Race Six: Jungle Mist Classic 1200m
Back Me: Bontiara didn’t win by big margins last prep, but she did the job well enough. I’m tipping her to fire first up.
Don’t Back Me: Svara was excellent when resuming, but she is looking for further I think.
Big Danger: Dante’s Diamond has the gun barrier and will push forward to get a lovely sit off the pace. Definite chance.
Roughie: Best Feature will get back and look to charge at them late. She’ll hit the line better than anything else.
Race Seven: Sky Racing Wa Guineas 1600m
Back Me: Red Hot Sax is the only horse in the race who has form at the mile. He looks an outstanding e/w bet at $21 from barrier one.
Don’t Back Me: King Saul looks very short to me. I thought his run behind Ron’s Call was ok, but nothing great. Not a betting prospect.
Big Danger: Ron’s Call is a deserved favourite after four great wins this time in. This is his grand final so anticipate a big run.
Roughie: Shining Knight got back and ran home strongly behind Ron’s Call. The 1600m suits and he is a definite threat.
Race Eight: Carlton Draught Railway Stakes 1600m
Back Me: Ranger is a superstar who would be very competitive if he ran in the Eastern states. He is flying at the moment and is the clear horse to beat.
Don’t Back Me: He’s Remarkable looks badly drawn because there will be speed on and he might get caught up behind tired horses I think. That’s a big concern.
Big Danger: Luckygray was brilliant last start and the time just oozed top class. He’ll get back, do no work and absolutely fly late.
Roughie: Kincaple is getting fitness in the legs for the Perth Cup and even though this is a long way short of his best, he’ll sit near the tempo and grind away.
Race Nine: Burswood Winterbottom Stakes 1200m
Back Me: Get the best price for Ortensia, watch her win, line up to collect. She has class, talent and should improve on her first up win on Oaks day.
Don’t Back Me: Grand Nirvana is going well at present without winning. That should continue here because he’ll have to work from the barrier.
Big Danger: Rarefied flew and missed the bob in the Sallinger behind Sister Madly. WFA isn’t his go, but he has the talent to overcome that.
Roughie: Werd will lead and go along at a strong tempo. 1200m is a risk with him, but he’ll give you a run for your money.
Race Ten: Carlton Dry (BM74+) 1000m
Back Me: The Entourage has his fair share of weight, but class will just about get him home. Solid effort in a Group Three race last start and from the barrier Grantham will have him in the perfect spot ready to pounce.
Don’t Back Me: Gotham City sat outside the speed and toughed it out to win last start. In saying that, he does look very poorly weighted.
Big Danger: The Corporation had the soft run last start on the fence and just missed out in a close finish. He’ll get a similar run here and can win if he gets that tad more luck.
Roughie: Centrum had the lovely trail, hit the front and was nailed late behind Canardly Miss. Has to do some work from the wide barrier, but he can get in the money with the right drag in to the race.
Written by Adam Page
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