Adam Page gives us his runner by runner preview and analysis for tomorrow’s Group 1 Australian Guineas at Flemington racecourse. View his tips.
Caulfield Guineas winner, but I’m starting to question how much depth was in that race. Hasn’t been that great this preparation particularly last start. I might be proven wrong, but I don’t think he can win.
2. Playing God
The star of Western Australia. Has won his last four starts in great style, including a win in the Group One Kingston Town Classic. Drawn perfectly, one of the worlds best in Brett Prebble riding, rises 200m after last start…he ticks alot of boxes.
Almost won the C S Hayes Stakes but was grabbed by Bullbars. Has the nightmare draw (17) to contend with and that just about puts a line through his chances.
4. Mr Chard
Kept grinding away behind Bullbars. He’ll love the rise to 1600m but has the bad barrier (13) and others seem better credentialled.
5. Run For Levi
Been ordinary this preparation and it’s hard to see him improving enough to take this out. He has drawn barrier one but thats the only positive about his prospects.
Didn’t get into the race behind Bullbars. On his best form he’d give this a mighty shake. Nick Hall sticks and he looks the value runner.
Had a gut on him yet showed wonderful fight to win last start. He will have improved on that and looms as one of the hardest to beat. The Snowden team can do nothing wrong at present and they may get their second group one win in seven days.
8. Dusty Star
Blowout horse. Went way too hard in front so to finish within three lengths of Bullbars was outstanding. He’ll lead here and one of the best front running riders is in the saddle, Darren Gauci. If he can get this horse to relax and go much more comfortably in front, he’ll give his backers one heck of a sight.
9. Spirited Eagle
Very tough customer. Was no closer than three deep last start yet still kept on finding to finish third behind Bullbars. If he gets cover, he can turn the tables.
10. Smokin Joey
He’s a stayer, wait until he gets to 2000m+.
11. Under The Eiffel
The boom horse from the Vasil yard. An absolute massive run at Caulfield when just ran off his legs yet surged to the outside and looking the winner before the bias kicked in and he ended up finishing second. This race looks perfect for him: 1600m, big track, midfield barrier and he has upside.
12. Eclair Surprise
He is a nice Derby horse I think. Ran home strongly last start behind Dusty Star. Not sure he can win but include him in the exotics.
13. Enjin Number Nine
Was given the run of the race by Bossy last start but he didn’t find much behind Bullbars. He is talented but I don’t think he can reverse that finish here.
On track towards the Oaks. Hit the line well in the Vanity but she is looking for 2000m and beyond. A first four hope if they go mad in front.
15. We Can Say It Now
Gifted filly from New Zealand. Already has won two Group one races and looking to make it three here. Has wowed trackwork onlookers at Flemington and from all reports, if she brings that trackwork on raceday, she’ll win.
16. Southern Speed
A future Group one winner no doubt, but the barrier is a massive dint to her chances. Lindop will have to drop her back and hope for the best. If she can pinch runs and somehow be within four-five lengths from the front at the 300m, watch out.
No thank you. Hasn’t been racing well enough to threaten these.
Not sure he is up to these. Was ok behind Bullbars but he just lacks that x-factor.
Good horse but he wants it easier and over a shorter trip.
If he got a start, he’d be hard to beat, but he is fourth emergency. Good stayer in the making, he looks a serious Derby contender.
Selections (Not in order): 3 Playing God, 7 Bullbars, 11 Under The Eiffel, 15 We Can Say It Now
Written by Adam Page
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