The 2011 Commercial Club Albury Gold Cup two day Carnival kicks off this Thursday with the Enpower Solutions (EPS) City Handicap race day. The feature race is worth $60,000 and has attracted 15 horses. Read Adam Page’s preview of the race with his analysis on each runner and my selections.
1. Voice Commander
Looked fresh when he ran a very good fourth in the National Sprint at Canberra. He’ll improve on that run I assume fitness wise and against this lot, he should be winning with normal luck. Kathy O’Hara knows the horse well and she’ll know where to put this grand horse in the run. I’m pretty confident he’ll win.
2. Berringama
Good galloper resuming for Brian Cox. Not a real noted first up performer but he does have form behind Moudre and Reward For Effort. Class alone will put him in the finish. I rate him highly.
3. Lebrechaun
I think he surprised a few punters when he won the National Sprint last start. He was kept safe at $10 but he had barrier 12 and that forced many to put a line through his chances but Michael Cahill produced a great ride to get the horse home. Cahill has chosen to ride the stablemate Happy Finish. That is the lead that makes me think this horse isn’t a winning chance.
4. Happy Finish
Has come back well this prep albeit in easier company. two starts on the track for a win and a placing but the key to him is a dry track. 14 starts on a good track for six wins and four placings. The forecast is for slight rain so that worries me about his chances but he is drawn to get the run of the race so I’d include him in multiples.
5. Onthelookout
Wasn’t far behind Lebrechaun in the National Sprint, finishing a 2.1 lengths fourth. Loomed up to win at Rosehill prior to that but peaked on his run. This bloke is flying and he can handle a little bit of give in the ground. I regard him as a serious threat.
6. Hillbilly Dancer
Handy gallpor when right. Did the job wel last start carrying 61.5kg. He drops 8.5kg on that run but he steps up in class and 1400m is too far for him I feel. I’m happy to leave him out.
7. Jeuneys End
Capable stayer resuming. Bumped into very good horses last campaign such as Linton, Playwright, Mr Charlie, Moudre and Ranvet Stakes winner Zavite. He has won twice second up so I wouldn’t rule him out totally.
8. Ravna Gora
Consistent type that is never far away from the action. Didn’t mind his run behind Girls Go Racing last start. Big query with him is the rise to 1400m. He has never raced beyond 1200m in his career but with the exception of two or three horses it isn’t a strong race so if ever he was going to run a strong 1400m and win, it’ll be here.
9. Regular Aussie
Good strike rate winning six of his 15 starts. Has won five of eight this distance and doesn’t mind the track being wet. Was a bit disappointing last start at Echuca but I’m prepared to forgive him there and give him another chance. Only has 51.5kg to carry which he won’t realise because the lowest weight he has carried prior to this has been 53.5kg.
10. Tarrabrandra
Tim Clark got the best out of this gelding to get the win on this track last start. Another horse who hasn’t raced at 1200m but he has drawn well and should get the gun run. I’m sure Clark will cuddle this horse to save him up for the final 300m because that is the unknown. If he gets the distance, he is a winning hope.
11. Cent Otto
He’ll be winning races this prep no doubt but I don’t think he’ll be winning here. He has a wide draw, rises in class and appears to appreciate racing anti-clockwise more than clockwise. Prepared to risk him.
12. The Invincible One
Hasn’t been racing well of late and although he is drawn well, he’ll need to improve many lengths to trouble the big guns in this race.
13. Gandalf The White
A sneaky chance. Looked good in a barrier trial before running a solid race first up. Has placed second up and if they want to go crazy in front, he’ll be the one charging home at the end at a good price.
14. Russwillcrow
Not sure he’ll run out the 1400m strongly. Has a lethal record at the track but I don’t think he is good enough to beat these. If he was in an easier race over a shorter journey, I’d back him. But not here.
15. Miss Aristocrat
Ran the 1400m out well enough last start to get the bikkies but this is a steep rise in class from Tumut. She’s got no weight on her back but that’s about the only thing that is going for her.
Overview:
I’ve put Voice Commander on top. His form is just better than these I feel and although he meets Lebrechaun here as well, I just feel there is more upside to the Nick Olive runner. Tarrabrandra for second. Hasn’t run beyond 1200m in his career but he is drawn to get the sucker run off the pace and with cover, he can run the trip out if ridden well. Jeuneys End for third. He has class on his side and although 1400m is well short of his best distance, I’m expecting him to be wound up for a first up performance. Berringama is put in for fourth. Has good form behind him and if he can overcome the horror draw, he is right in the thick of things. 1-10-7-2
Written by Adam Page
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