Nine races have been set down for Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (14:33) Free Entry To Belmont Pk Plate 1400m
8 Mia Gusto (Bet Now: $4.80) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but she is a filly who is crying out for 1400m and she gets it here. Last couple of runs have come over 1200m here where each time she has been back in the run and closed off, the latest being two weeks ago when beaten just over a length. The rise to 1400m I like and if she’s within range, I think she’ll win.
4 Mojo’s Luck (Bet Now: $8.50) has the hard 1400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead. That came here where he led throughout and was there to be beaten but he found plenty under pressure to fend them off and get the win, just. He commands respect despite the rise in depth.
3 Bird’s The Word (Bet Now: $7.50) is a knockout hope. Ran over this track/distance last Wednesday when given a peach by CJP and he was able to get the job done in what was a pretty weak Class One. The depth here is clearly stronger but with the hard lead up under the belt, he’s a first four contender.
Race 2. (15:13) Tabtouch - Westspeed (Rs0ly) 1200m
Back to 1200m I do like for 5 Keep Attacking (Bet Now: $4.20) and with that, he is on top. Ran over 1300m here two weeks ago where he was given a lovely ride by Harvey and was there to win, but had no answers late for the finale produced by Arcadia Grace, who I suspect is a swimmer. Back to 1200m, hard fit, he’ll do me.
1 Astro Warrior (Bet Now: $2.70) has come back in super order for Hayden Ballantyne. Lovely front running ride from Lucy Warwick saw him win at the midweeks here at this track/distance, getting complete control in front and giving nothing else a look in. If he leads and gets control again, he’ll take beating.
3 Reign Of Fire (Bet Now: $4.60) should love getting back to this level. He has contested solid benchmark races in both runs this time in, the latest being last Saturday when back and making up some headway behind River Rubicon. Back to this level, hard fit, he’ll take beating against these.
Race 3. (15:53) Bowls A Sport For Life (Bm72+) 1200m
If the seven day back up is no issue, then I am clearly in the corner of 3 Mercanto (Bet Now: $3.10). He was massive in defeat last Saturday here, closing off strongly nearer the inside, which was quicksand, when fourth to River Rubicon. He gets run of the race from the gate and overall, the depth is quite thin for a 72+.
7 Holy Ghost (Bet Now: $15.00) is the one I’d consider a threat. He finished behind Mercanto in the race mentioned above last Saturday. The strong tempo ensured he was a mile off them in the run and never a factor, but did make up solid headway late. Can get close to the win if he’s within range.
8 Solid Azza (Bet Now: $17.00) would be on top if this track was firm. He is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when back in the run and worked home with real purpose late when fourth to Mercanto. He’s crying out for dry ground, but last start showed that wet tracks are okay-ish.
Race 4. (16:29) Love The Bowlo (Rs0ly) 1000m
7 Born To Rule (Bet Now: $3.90) looks a straight bat option. Adam Durrant trained mare that resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago where she had the suck run behind the speed and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish the job against the pattern when third to Sockoff. Maps ideally again and fitter, proven on wet ground, she’ll do me.
2 First Law (Bet Now: $6.50) deserves another look. Team Gangemi trained gelding that ran down the straight at Pinjarra last start and for mine, he just didn’t seem suited down the straight. I reckon back around a bending track, on wet ground, he’ll run a much improved race.
The wet track concerns me with 6 Sunnysilk (Bet Now: $9.50). Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance when back in the run and held up but had his chance behind Spirited Session, who went within a lip of winning last Saturday. If this track isn’t completely bottomless, he’s in with a shout.
Race 5. (17:05) K Krstic Grabs Gold (Bm72+) 2000m
4 Crescent City (Bet Now: $3.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Team Williams trained gelding that tried his guts out two weeks ago here but just missed out on the win when second to Our Norman, who got complete control in front and was too good. If this track can dry out, he’ll clearly be the one to beat.
8 Olden (Bet Now: $4.00) is flying and has to command respect. Strong winner over 2100m here last time, getting an absolute peach by CJP to knuckle down strongly late and win despite doing a bit wrong late. He’s liking wet ground and despite more depth here, he has to rate highly.
6 Bold Success (Bet Now: $5.00) gets another look for me, purely because the stable are running him rather than the paddock because the run behind Our Norman last time was the worst run in some time. I am backing in the stable to have him on track for this and on prior form, he commands respect.
Race 6. (17:40) The Professionals (Rs1mw) 1200m
6 Honey Dew (Bet Now: $4.00) has proven herself to be an absolute swimmer in recent times and with that in mind, I have to be in her corner. Dominant display at this track/distance last time, lapping up the heavy track and giving her rivals a spanking. Hard fit, in form, she’ll do me against this lot.
7 Alsephina (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Team Williams trained mare that resumes. She had a three run prep as a 3YO in the Autumn, winning the first two in impressive fashion before a game third. Given a break and thought her recent trial was a good piece of work. Just a query on the wet ground so watch the market.
5 Cold Shizzle (Bet Now: $9.00) is capable with his best. Forgive the run last time over 1300m here when wide no cover for the trip and just feeling the pinch late behind Hibiscus Lady. Good track/distance record and with the claim for Holly Watson, I want to give him another chance.
Race 7. (18:15) Afgri Equipment (Bm66+) 1400m
8 Advanced (Bet Now: $2.00) is a very interesting runner. Michael Grantham trained gelding that is first up after a two run Autumn prep. Arrogant first up win at Northam before racing here and was a tad on the plain side when fourth to Above The Peg. I think he’ll be suited on the wet track and his recent trial win was sharp.
9 Kohli (Bet Now: $9.00) has such an awful racing pattern but is capable of being dangerous if he’s within range. He ran oer this trakc/distance two weeks ago when back, spotting a big start, and was okay late without threatening behind Success Play. Doubt he beats Advanced, but runs well.
4 Ohbeeh (Bet Now: $18.00) is a first four contender. Ran over 1200m here three weeks back. She was on speed throughout and gave a solid kick from the front, but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Dorado. Like her up to 1400m and she comes into the mix if this track is playing on speed.
Race 8. (18:50) Amelia Park-Blue Spec (Bm82+) 1600m
11 No Apology (Bet Now: $5.50) is a great each way bet here IMO. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he attempted to lead throughout and he looked home, but was nabbed on the peg by Westriver Miracle. More depth here, but he’s a line chaser and loves to fight, so with hard fitness, he’ll do me.
4 Ginger Flyer (Bet Now: $3.00) is a mare that is flying for Simon Miller. Strong win over 1400m here a fortnight back, knuckling down strongly late to wear down the two leaders and finished best. Proven at the mile…just creeping up in the weights, but she’s just so genuine.
5 Red Army (Bet Now: $41.00) is such a fascinating runner. Team Williams trained gelding that resumes. He hasn’t raced since May 2020 here and has clearly had his issues. He had three trials in the Spring of 2022, then a couple of trials in the Autumn last year. Has had two trials this time in for his return…I’d be stunned if he won, but wouldn’t shock if he snuck a first four spot.
Race 9. (19:25) Bpl Perth Suns (Rs1mw) 1600m
Keen on 9 Arcadia Grace (Bet Now: $6.50). Lot of quality about the win over 1300m here two weeks ago, coming from last and rounding them up with ease to win and win impressively. The late splits suggested the wet track was to her liking and fitter, up to the mile, she’s clearly the one to beat.
2 Mr Mt Walker (Bet Now: $6.00) loves getting his toe in so he commands respect. Lovely ride from McGruddy saw him win at this track/distance a fortnight back when getting the suck run behind the speed before angling clear and in a driving go, finished best. Hard fit, in form, he’ll be around the mark.
8 Seduce Me (Bet Now: $7.50) is racing like a rise to the mile will be ideal. She was 1400m back to 1300m two weeks back here and wasn’t suited when back against the pattern when fourth to Hibiscus Lady. The form prior suggested a mile would be ideal and she gets that here.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 Arcadia Grace
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 6 Honey Dew
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 No Apology
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 6, 7
Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 9
Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 8, 11
Leg Four: 9
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