20/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, The Goodwood day

The Adelaide Carnival wraps up this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Goodwood Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Game Keeper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He really caught the eye fresh at Sandown before going to the Warrnambool Carnival where he was one of many to struggle on the track for the Carnival when down the track behind Independent Road. Back on firmer footing, up in trip, I wouldn’t be penning him.

2 Morty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope. He ran a few weeks back over 1550m on the Parks track where he tried to make a sustained run from the back and did a really good job to loom but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Conqueror. That was his first run since March 3 so you’d think there is room for improvement…not sure he wins, but a first four threat.

4 Smiling Assassin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a tough nut that should be strong at the end if he’s within range. He did that a fortnight back here and while he was never a threat, I thought he found the line pretty well late when fourth to Silent Surrente, beaten just over five lengths. I reckon he’s better at 2500m but if this is a truly run 2000m, he’ll be one of the strongest at the end.

6 Howl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. David Jolly trains this gelding, who resumes, having not raced since November 16 here when back in the run and making up solid headway without threatening behind Keep Reading. I can’t find a recent trial/jumpout for him but he is a horse who can sprint well fresh and will be launching late if he’s ready to go.

9 Rushaway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) Lad has solid wet track stats and can roll forward so he has a bit going for him to only run well. He ran last Saturday over 1200m here and was far from disgraced in defeat in a much stronger race, won by Manhattan Times. Seven day back onto a wet track is absolute gold, he gets Craig Williams, will press forward…takes beating.

8 Daring Move (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. She has been kept on ice, having not raced since the Railway at Oakbank when down the track and seemingly not handling the circuit behind Taunting. Back on the home deck is a big tick and overall, this isn’t a strong race, so with her best, she’s certainly in the mix.

5 Chilled (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1200m but it’s hard knock how genuine she is. Matt Laurie trained filly that was a narrow second two back over this trip in the Mornington Sires before going to the Without Fear over 1050m here two weeks ago where she got a peach from Mick Dee and in a driving finish, she was able to get the job done. Think with a patient steer and cuddled before pushing the button, she can see out the 1200m strongly enough and take this out.

1 Heuristic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for James Cummings since contesting the Breeders Stakes at this track/distance. He was near the speed throughout and presented to win under Pannell. He was there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Treasurway. The end of 1200m is the query but with a soft trip, I think it’ll be okay and is a key chance.

2 Bolted In (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands some level of respect. Matty Seyers trained juvenile that was backed with confidence when debuting last Wednesday at Balaklava. #They got it spot on, as he sat on speed, was clicked up in the straight under Eaton and found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. Good racing style and has ticker, so he has plenty going for him.

5 Stormy Grey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for the Griffiths/De Kock camp. She has steadily got better with racing and that was confirmed with her maiden win on the home deck at Cranbourne over 2500m, where Murray had her behind the leader and really, from 1200m out, she was always going to win. Just a matter of getting clear and once she did, she gapped them and was arrogant. She’ll eat up the truly run 2500m here and be one of the strongest late.

4 Moya Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly with good talent and should appreciate getting to this trip. Her last couple of runs have come at 2000m, winning her maiden quite impressively two back at Pakenham before going to the Oaks where she got a mile out of her ground but loved the way she found the line late in the piece behind Affaire A Suivre. Racing like 2500m will be ideal and she’ll be strong at the end.

12 Ravin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 2500m. Price/Kent trained filly that is still a maiden but looks to have good staying ability. She ran three weeks ago in the Chairmans over 2000m here. They rode her a touch warm and while she found the line again, she probably wasn’t as effective as what she was the start prior. Reckon with a more conservative steer, 2500m is ideal and has upside to come IMO.

Hard to get away from 9 Foxy Frida (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Andrew Noblet. She bolted on this day last year in the Centaurea and I think she’ll be winning again. She ran two weeks ago in the Queen Of The South here and looked the winner when Egan presented her but she couldn’t withstand the finale of in form filly Caste. Hard fit now and right down in the weights, I think it will be a case of good luck beating her.

5 Lord Vladivostok (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win and I think he gets his chance here. Caught the eye late at Oakbank behind Rolls before going to the 1400m a few weeks ago in the City Of Adelaide and was again warming to the task at the end when beaten 1.4L by My Khalifa. Love him up to the mile on the big track and with a half positive ride, he’ll only run well and be hard to beat IMO.

3 My Khalifa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at the mile but he’s a very genuine horse that has to be given another look. Loved the way he let down to win the City Of Adelaide two back on the Parks track before going to this track/distance where he looked to truck in the run but once Pannell asked for the effort, he didn’t find a great deal and just whacked to the line. With a more economical run, patient steer, he can take this out.

4 Cap De Joie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. She has had three runs at around the 1600m-1700m range on the bounce, the latest coming at Sandown a fortnight back where she was backed as if unbeatable but she really struggled on the wet ground and only got warm late in the piece behind Unusual Culture. Like her up in trip and she does have a bit of quality about her.

8 Thought Provoking (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has returned in really good order and is one of the key chances. This mare has been runner up in both runs this time in. Should have won fresh at Mornington before going to Sandown where they rode her forward and she battled away really well in defeat. Hard fit now and getting up in trip, big jockey upgrade, she’s very likeable.

7 Last Girl Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. This mare was big odds in the Queen Of The South two weeks back and while she was never a threat, she did make up solid headway and the run was quite good I thought, beaten five lengths by Caste. That was her second run since the freshen up so up to 2000m now, she is a definite first four contender.

4 Foxicon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong this time in for Peter Moody and has to be respected. Three weeks between runs since a strong win over 1000m at Sandown. She got into a lovely spot behind the speed under Hefel before angling into clear air and gee she let down with purpose late to win impressively. Very genuine mare and should take beating once again despite more depth.

7 Snapped (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Team Freedman since racing over 1000m at Sandown where she got back off the speed and warmed up nicely late in the piece when second to the very much in form Foxicon. The stable rarely get it badly wrong when they come to Adelaide so she has to be respected, especially given she can launch late.

10 Legless Lady (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat second up for the Macdonald/Gluyas camp. She was kept relatively safe in betting a few weeks ago here when settling near last in the run. She got a lovely ride from Holder and drove hard late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to surprise winner Star Hills. Better for the run under the belt, and with a drag into the race, she’ll take holding out.

9 Lofty Strike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets a golden chance to get his Group l win. He is a quality colt for Julius Sandhu that hasn’t raced since the TJ Smith where I thought he was far from disgraced in defeat in what has turned out to be a hot, hot race, won by I Wish I Win, with Giga Kick a game second. Freshened up, drops a fair bit in depth IMO and with Jamie Mott back aboard, he’ll sit off the fast speed and confident he finishes over the top.

16 Royal Merchant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripper for Maher/Eustace and has to be respected. Market wanted her in the Tobin Bronze a fortnight back and with a peach from Michael Dee, she was able to settle just off the speed before angling clear at the right time and drove hard late to win well and wear down the in form She Dances. She’s a very genuine filly and only has to hold her form to be around the mark.

5 Curran (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be hit and miss but his best is certainly good enough. He won The Discovery on Good Friday at Geelong before going to the Hareeba at Mornington where he got back in the run and made up minor headway without threatening behind Jigsaw. Think a fast run 1200m will suit him and with his finale, he can get a suck run and launch late.

3 Jacks On Ice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. Market wanted him two back at Gawler and he duly bolted up. He then went to Morphettville two weeks ago where he was on speed and looked home but couldn’t hold out the finale of Toast The Deel. He’s fourth up from a break so he should just about be at peak fitness and I think with a bunny to chase, he’ll be stronger at the end this time around.

4 Nicajon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) swims so he is easily likeable here if the track becomes a paddock. He ran during the Warrnambool Carnival and was very good from the back when a close up fifth to Summit Queen, beaten under a length. He is a winner at this track, he has a gate to settle much closer in the run and still be effective late.

17 Sixfootone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. He attempted to lead throughout last Wednesday at Balaklava and gave a very good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off and was run down late by a very nice horse, Pompeii Empire. He is finding it hard to win but is consistent and thereabouts. With his racing style, he’ll give himself every chance.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 9 Lofty Strike

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Cap De Joie

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 5 Stormy Grey

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4

Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 10

Leg Three: 9

Leg Four: 3, 4, 13, 15, 17

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