20/4/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington, Mornington Cup day

1 Perspiration (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a colt that I feel has a decent engine under the hood. I thought he was given little hope with the ride two weeks ago at Caulfield but he kept finding the line in a really good effort behind Feroce, finishing second. Think with a better steer, can settle closer in the run, he’ll be dangerous for sure.

3 Brighella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a nice type for James Cummings. He debuted over 1000m at Cranbourne where he gave them a start and a beating, launching late to finish over the top for a big win, overcoming how biased that track has been. He’ll love getting to 1200m and with a drag into the race, he’ll be dangerous.

8 Climate Change (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is two weeks between runs since resuming in the Dequetteville at Morphettville when wide no cover on speed and fought hard but condition just gave way late in the piece behind Lincolnshire. Better for the run, good racing style and with a touch of quality, she commands respect.

2 Maracana (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Danny O’Brien trained mare that resumed at Flemington three weeks ago over 1400m in a strong 84 and just looked in need of the run behind He’s Our Bonneval. Much better suited in a race like this, especially back to Mares grade, she looks extremely hard to beat.

4 Mawkeb (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. This mare was freshened up prior to racing at Sandown on Easter Monday where she was good from off the speed and kept chasing when third to a nice horse, Moya Lass. Fitter and up in trip, she is going well enough to threaten.

1 Thought Provoking (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver at odds. Price/Kent trained mare that resumed in the Legacies race mentioned above from two weeks back. She got into a decent spot behind the speed but found zero under pressure and was a bit on the plain side behind the Moody/Coleman filly. Fitter, kind map, I am not penning her.

I’ll take a chance on 5 Ranveer (Bet Now:  $SP.00), that resumes for Matt Laurie. He hasn’t race since this meeting last year, and this race, where he was first up and ran a closing second to Fasuto, but should have won had he got clear air. His jumpout work has been strong, maps perfect, home track advantage…appeals.

3 Fasuto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to rock and roll first up. Clinton McDonald trained gelding that resumes, and won this race last year. He hasn’t raced since Ballarat Cup Day where he struggled on the bottomless deck behind Taunting. He is much better suited at this level, he went like a jet in a recent Cranbourne jumpout and maps ideally. Leading contender.

12 Princess Duhallow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look for Team Hayes. She ran at Yarra Valley on Country Discovery Day where she was tardy away and I think that sealed her fate when fourth to Our Cracklin Rosie. Think with a clean jump, she’ll land on the bunny and take running down. One of the leading contenders.

2 Brayden Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a really good prep and should take beating against this lot. Definite pass mark first up in the Echuca Cup before going to the mile at Flemington three weeks ago where he got a fair way back but liked the way he finished his race off behind Arran Bay. Hard fit and up to 2000m, he’ll do me.

7 Lionel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Former UK stayer that makes his Australian debut for Ciaron Maher, having not raced since Sep 22 at Ascot when placing over 2816m. He has had extensive trial/jumpout work and we know with this stable and imports, he creates interest. Watch the market.

5 Bear Story (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t really set the world on fire since arriving from Ireland but this is one of the easier races he has contested since arriving. He resumed over the mile at Flemington three weeks back where he attempted to lead throughout and he gave a decent enough kick but couldn’t quite see it through behind Arran Bay. Not sure he wins, but a first four threat.

9 Talbragar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented animal for Julius Sandhu that had his first run for the stable three weeks ago down the straight at Flemington when bombing the start but he picked himself up and kept finding the line in a pretty good return behind impressive winner Midtown Boss. If he has taken no harm from that return, he appeals against these.

6 End Assembly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Mark Currie, he now finds himself with Moody/Coleman and he comes here off the back of impressive jumpout work at Pakenham, indicating he’s here to rock and roll and given his efforts in Queensland, he was a Stakes winner, so he commands respect.

1 Show Some Decorum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but he is racing really well at the moment for Team Freedman. He put together a couple of wins on the bounce before going to Echuca and the El Dorado when outclassed but game in defeat behind Deekay. Back to this level, he is dangerous.

4 Dual Pressure (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps each way. Matty Ellerton trained galloper that ran last Saturday in the Bendigo Guineas where he got dragged back from the wide gate and was never a factor when down the track behind War Machine. If he can use the inside gate and settle closer, he’ll only run well I’d suggest.

8 Grid Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for Team Hayes. She has won two of her three runs this time in, the latest start being a win over 1400m at Pakenham where she lobbed into a beaut spot behind the speed before angling clear and she knuckled down with purpose to win and win well. Confident she measures up.

11 Finale (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is still a maiden but Cliff Brown has a nice filly on her hands here. She ran last Thursday in a Pakenham maiden over 1400m where she got off the speed and worked home well but couldn’t quite get there when second to impressive winner New Sovereign. Fitter and up in trip, this isn’t a deep race, so I am not penning her.

3 Sea What I See (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is destined for better races than this so keen to see how she goes. 4/4 this time in, the latest being three weeks ago at Flemington where she defied a betting drift and made an absolute mess of them after getting clear. Destined for Stakes races I feel and this can be another winning stepping stone.

5 Desperado (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Ciaron Maher and rates highly as one of the hardest to beat for mine. He was a strong winner a fortnight back at Caulfield, letting down with purpose from off the speed and knuckled down with purpose to win nicely. Potentially has eyes on Warrnambool? Keen to see how he goes against these.

7 Sing For Peace (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Patrick Payne trained stayer that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since Aug 5 when down the track over 2500m at Murray Bridge, producing an end of prep run. Been given a good break and first up at 2000m tells me he is fit and ready to go, so watch the market.

4 First Immortal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look. Most were keen on him in the Easter Cup two weeks ago at Caulfield where he was right up on the fence, in restricted room, and didn’t really get a chance to get clear air and build the revs, so I am forgiving of the run. Hard fit now and up to 2400m, with clear air, he can bounce back hard.

1 Captain Envious (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found positive/winning form and he can go on with it. He was a surprise winner of the Easter Cup at Caulfield but he was impressive given he was in restricted room and had to shove into clear air to win, which he did and was strong. He’ll love 2400m and appeals.

2 Future History (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He comes through the Easter Cup where he sat on speed throughout and was seemingly going nicely. He gave a strong kick but being second up, condition just gave way late in the piece behind Captain Envious. Hard fit, good upside, he’s in with a shout.

5 Pintoff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but a race I want nothing to do with. Formerly with Carly Cook, he now finds himself with Ciaron Maher. He did an excellent job when last in work, winning 2/2. Now with Maher, his recent jumpout win at Cranbourne was very good and off a good speed, he’ll be very strong at the end.

15 Devil’s Throat (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a nice horse for Team Snowden that resumes. This guy only had one run when last in work, which came on Dec 9 at Randwick when down the track behind Brudenell where he bled. Given a break, jumped out really well in readiness and can press forward.

4 Holyfield (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. Three weeks between runs since resuming in the Bob Hoysted at Flemington where he just found the 1000m too short and was never a winning factor behind Sans Doute. Fitter and up in trip, good second up record, he can take this out without totally surprising.

4 Dashing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Aaron Purcell. Did more than enough fresh at The Valley behind Johnny Rocker before racing three weeks ago at Flemington where he was given a 12/10 and was there to win but condition just gave out late when close up in defeat behind He’s Our Bonneval. Hard fit now, his best is good enough.

8 Frigid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win for John Leek Jr. This mare ran a fortnight back at Caulfied where she made a sustained run from off the speed and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up third to Regal Azmon. Third up, so she should be hard fit and her best is very good, especially for this level. She appeals.

1 Mathletic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited up to 1600m. Michael Moroney trained import that made his Australian debut a few weeks back in the Bel Esprit at Caulfield where he just found them a touch sharp and couldn’t come on when down the track behind Brudenell. Much better suited at this level and up in trip, he’s an improver for sure.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 Brayden Star

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Perspiration

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 4 Dual Pressure

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 10, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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