Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:15) Noel Rundle Handicap (90) 1100m
Hoping we can get a decent price about 5 Egyptian Bullet (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) because I think she could well be a decent each way gamble. John McArdle trains this mare, who trialled up well prior to resuming at Warwick Farm on a bog where she didn’t like it all and was slow to recover post race, so I think just bin the resumption. Her efforts in the Spring hold her in good stead for this if she brings that kind of form here. Dry track a big tick.
1 All Over Bosanova (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) has had a few homes but is now with Phillip Stokes. Did a really good job in her stint with John O’Shea, especially in her last two runs when winning the Camarena at Canberra before a narrow third in the Maurice McCarten. Does seem most effective on dry ground, which she gets here. Only negative is the weight because biggest weight she’s carried to victory is 57kg.
7 Miss Vixen (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in really good order for the Cindy Alderson stable. First three runs in the early part of the Autumn were quite good with a couple of placings, including one behind Clarice Cliffs. Freshened up and ran at the Sandown midweeks a couple of Wednesdays back and sprinted very nicely off a slow tempo to win. Off that run, she has to be respected.
Race 2. (12:50) Bill Collins Handicap (78) 2000m
He wants further but hard to ignore the Australian debut of 8 Lord Gododdin (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) for Chris Waller. This bloke had his first start in Australia at Flemington on All Star Mile Day where he got a fair way back off the speed but didn’t stop chasing and was good late behind dominant winner Prometheus. 2000m+ is when he’ll come into his own, but think he goes close regardless.
15 Divanation (Bet Now: (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) is the daughter of Makybe Diva who is putting together a tidy little record. Just found the mile and tight track not her go first up at the Valley before going to Geelong where I thought Mallyon rode the mare a bit cute but her class got her home in the end. She’s looking like she wants 2000m+, which she gets now, and has upside to come.
17 Skelm (Bet Now: (Bet Now: $81.00 TOP ODDS) is a Terry Kelly trained stayer who won a couple of races on the bounce in impressive fashion before failing over 2400m. Freshened up and ran over the mile at Sandown last Wednesday when back in an on pace race and couldn’t come on at all behind Sentimentalist. Think he’ll take really good improvement from that and up to 2000m a big tick.
Race 3. (13:25) Bert Bryant Handicap (84) 1600m
10 Handsome Return (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) on top for me. Will Clarken has a very good record when he brings horses to Melbourne and he brings a progressive one here. Very disappointing resumption behind Amberdi before stepping up to 1550m where he bounced back to his best with an impressive win, sitting off the speed before pouncing and putting the race to bed quickly. Confident he can go close against these.
9 Prometheus (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is a Matty Dale trained gelding who hasn’t raced since All Star Mile Day at Flemington over the mile when given a sweet steer off the pace before bouncing on the lead and dashing clear for a dominant win. Been kept on ice since and the tick over trial at Canberra was very good in sharp time, so I don’t think fitness will be an issue and Dunn remains on.
12 Sir Pippin (Bet Now: (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is a former UK galloper for Chris Waller who made his Australian debut on Yarra Valley Cup Day where he was given a sweet steer from Lane and in a bunched finish, he got the job done in the last few strides. Has been freshened up since then and the tick over trial at Cranbourne was good. Interesting to see how he goes because the form from the Yarra Valley race hasn’t been great.
Race 4. (14:00) Jack Elliot Handicap 1600m
David Briedoake rarely gets it wrong with his fillies and mares and has a handy filly here in the shape of 1 Princess Jenni (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS), who has plenty of room for improvement. Given a sweet steer from Olly last start in the Alexandra at the Valley, sitting back, wide with cover, before getting the ideal drag up, peeling wider and finishing best to win. Was going down the Adrian Knox/Oaks path but is here with potentially the SA Oaks in mind. Surely she beats these if right.
2 Music Bay (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) had somewhat let the punters down in her first two runs back from a break, going down as fav, but bounced back big time last Wednesday at Sandown when just off the speed before Crowther asked her for the effort and she put them away impressively. Harder here, but now her confidence is up, from a soft gate, she can win this for sure.
15 Our Hot Date (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) is a Patrick Payne trained filly who looks to be heading in the right direction. Was really good on debut behind Hurricane Fighter before going to Pakenham where she got a soft run outside the speed before putting the leader away and dashing clear for a dominant win. She’s got a really good action and puts her head down, wanting to have a dig, which is a good sign.
Race 5. (14:35) Robert Taranto Handicap 1200m
Not the greatest of races going around but am going the way of 3 Cristal Eyes (Bet Now: $11.00) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This filly put together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce prior to racing over 1400m at Flemington on All Star Mile Day when not suited by the slow tempo set by the eventual winner Outrageous. Fresh and back in depth at 1200m looks an ideal recipe.
4 High Ratio (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be heading in the right direction for the Mick Price stable. Given a sweet ride from Olly last time out at Sandown and visually, he had to fight hard for the win, but the leader did crawl them so he had to dash, and he did so in good style for a horse probably not suited at that set up. Looks better suited here despite the class rise and is a leading chance.
Not sure that 10 Battle Master (Bet Now: $19.00) beat much on debut at Hamilton but gee the manner in which he did it was impressive. Looked to be going nowhere on the turn but Fry picked his way through nearer the inside and once clear air arrived, he savaged the line and dashed hard to win, clocking some of the better late splits of the meeting, and for a maiden horse on debut, that’s usually a good sign they’ve got ability, so giving him respect here.
Race 6. (15:15) Geoff Murphy Handicap 1100m
Confident that 14 Tofane (Bet Now: $4.20) can measure up here for Mike Moroney. Just failed to finish it off on debut at Bendigo in a good form race before going to Ballarat where Olly had her near the speed and once he asked the filly for a response, it was instant and he powered right away to win most impressively, with something in hand. Finds a very winnable race here and I think she can win.
I think class just about comes to the fore here in the shape of 1 Thrillster (Bet Now: $5.50), an above average filly for the Corstens camp resuming. She had a very good Spring, highlighted by a win in the Atlantic Jewel and did run a close up fifth in the Thousand Guineas, so in terms of class, has these covered. Just depends if she can carry the weight and how forward she is because I suspect stable has blacktype in mind, whether it be SA or QLD. But, she has class.
7 Voila (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Chris Waller trained filly who comes to Melbourne after resuming on a bog at Warwick Farm where she was four and five wide throughout against the older horses but still loomed and hit the front for a few strides, but that early burn just caught up with her late as she was feeling the pinch and bloused. Think back on firmer footing and back to her own age/sex, she appeals.
Race 7. (15:55) Victoria Handicap 1400m
7 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Tony Noonan trained gelding who is becoming a bit frustrating to follow but at his best, he’s certainly up to beating these. Not much went right for him last time out but eventually got clear air and worked to the line strongly. I think he is most effective when away from the rail, outside horses with cover, and having last say. If that can eventuate here, hard to beat.
8 Zebulon (Bet Now: $5.00) looks to be going quite well for Aaron Purcell but can’t quite crack it for a win. He comes through the Golden Mile at Bendigo where not much went right for him from the wide gate, then didn’t get the clearest of paths in the straight when eighth to Haripour. Has been a bit costly for punters at his past couple but convinced he’s going well and has to be respected.
Couple of these comes through the Anniversary Vase and I think 5 Kemono (Bet Now: $6.50) is worth following up on. Just got a tad far back in the run but got wide with cover into the turn and loomed large, but first run in a few weeks, his condition just gave way I thought. Now has the run under the belt and stable is absolutely flying at the moment. Definite chance against these.
Race 8. (16:35) Easter Cup 2000m
Something each way for me in the shape of 1 Ambitious (Bet Now: $23.00). If you look at his Australian form, he does tend to race much better when racing clockwise, which does concern me here, but has class. Resumed in the Peter Young at Caulfield and was held up slightly but overall was disappointing behind Avilius. Has been nominated/accepted/scratched a few times, so keen to see what he does, and recent Flemington jumpout was quite good.
I think a somewhat forgotten horse here is 5 Furrion (Bet Now: $8.00). I thought he was super first up at Flemington behind Violate before going to the Golden Mile at Bendigo when back and never really in the hunt behind Haripour. Was near fav for that race and for mine, just pen the run. Suited big time up to 2000m and two of his better runs to date have been at Caulfield.
6 Odeon (Bet Now: $6.50) is a frustrating conveyance but his turn is coming I think and it might well be here. Good without being great in the Golden Mile before backing up over 2000m here when involved in a real speed battle the last 800m and just feeling the pinch late behind Our Libretto. Now he’s had the hard run at 2000m under the belt, he’ll be better off I suspect.
Race 9. (17:10) Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap 1200m
5 Superhard (Bet Now: $4.20) is third up for John Sadler and should be ready fitness wise. Electric first up win down the Flemington straight before going to the 955m behind Desert Lashes and was just run off his legs I thought when fourth. Much better suited at this sort of trip on a bigger track, and if he can produce what he did first up, clearly hard to beat here against these.
8 Haunted (Bet Now: $4.00) is a talented son of Lonhro resuming for James Cummings. This bloke had an excellent Spring prep, highlighted by wins down the Flemington straight and on Ballarat Cup Day. Been given a good break and resumes here on a path towards potentially the Wangoom and off season sprint features, and his recent jumpout was very good to the eye.
1 Dollar For Dollar (Bet Now: $6.50) is better suited over slightly further, but he does have a bit of class on these given he’s a Stakes winner and Group l placegetter. Had a very good Spring prep, which ended in the Sandown Stakes behind Fifty Stars. Been given a good break and has trialled up well leading into his return. Lands on speed, likes Caulfield, Ethan Brown riding well…surely a chance if he gets it cheap on speed.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Princess Jenni
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Handsome Return
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Ambitious
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 14
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6
Leg Four: 5, 8
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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