20/11/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

The Country Cups scene in Victoria continues this Saturday where it is Ballarat Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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1 Frankie Pinot (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win a race and he gets another great chance here. He was massive in defeat at Flemington on Cup Day. Got back to near last and peeled quite wide on the turn. Hit the front and looked home but he had no answers for the brilliant finale produced by Lackeen. Just has to hold his form to go close.

6 Kurabui (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare for the Price/Kent camp that resumes. Won her first four starts in in impressive fashion before her unbeaten run came to an end at Flemington when third to a talented animal, Degraves. Won a two horse trial recently to get ready, but the horse she beat, Portland Jimmy, won the Donald Cup on Sunday, so the form around her reads well and stable is flying.

3 Look Closely (Bet Now: $126.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. John Salanitri trains this former UK stayer, who has had one Australian run, which came at Caulfield back in June where he had a suck run behind the speed but as soon as pressure he was applied, he went backwards. I can’t find a jumpout/trial, so guessing is involved, but off his UK form, I’m not penning him.

4 Star Midfielder (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) for me in an intriguing edition of the Eureka Stockade. Has been given a mini let up after sitting wide no cover at the Valley and tiring late behind Rhinoceros. Blinkers were put on in a jumpout last Monday at Ararat and gee he moved sweetly. They look to have switched him right on and I think he can take this out.

7 Decent Raine (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while but continues to race at a good level. Little luck two back at Randwick behind Fangirl. Then went to the 1400m at Flemington and worked home strongly from off the speed behind Bend The Knee. Hard to beat if she can sit closer in the run.

They tried to get 2 Daily Bugle (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) as a Caulfield Guineas horse but after failing in that, he dropped a bit in depth and was good when third in the Carbine Club, then ran a week later over 1400m and was excellent from the back when third to Bend The Knee. Holds his form and he’ll be around the mark.

Waddle your finger and hope for the best. Siding with 11 Fly Nice (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) given she has the Maher/Eustace polish, gate one and Linda Meech. Has only had one jumpout, but it was a good piece of work when winning an 800m jumpout at Caulfield. Has the early speed to hold up from the inside gate, land on speed and prove hard to run down.

7 Hercules Morse (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) comes here to run well on debut I suggest. Stablemate of Fly Nice that has had a couple of jumpouts to get ready for start one, the latest a closing second under no real pressure in an 800m jumpout last week at Caulfield. John Allen steers, suspect he’ll be strong at the end.

10 Cover Star (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) has home track advantage and that should hold her in good stead. She’s had a couple of jumpouts to prepare. Ridden cold and charged late to win the first one before being on speed at her second jumpout and was narrowly beaten with a big gap to third, so she’s been given a good grounding. Interesting to see what the market does.

6 Duchess Of Dorset (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS) has done a ripping job this time in for Symon Wilde and has to be respected. Ran down the straight at Flemington last time and looked the winner when Williams presented, but couldn’t quite finish it off when a narrow third to It’sourtime. That form reads well for this.

10 La Bella Costa (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in good order for Matt Laurie. Jumped out well prior to resuming down the straight at Flemington when back near last in the run but worked home strongly late and caught the eye behind It’sourtime. If she can settle a pair or two closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

7 Garvoc (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is generally a mare that goes best fresh, so early on in the prep is her go. I’d be forgiving of her first up run on Kyneton Cup Day where she really struggled on the bottomless track and failed to pick up. On firmer footing here, I think she can bounce back.

5 The Gauch (Bet Now: $2.15) looks the safe option. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that ran over this trip at the Valley on Manikato Night where he was on speed but a move out wide meant the pressure was right on from around the 500m/600m mark and that burn just left him empty late when second to Exeter. Down to 52kg, Cartwright gets on well with him and maps super.

1 Sirius Suspect (Bet Now: $5.50) is the class runner of the field and that will carry him a long way here. He found positive form on Cup Day down the straight when on speed and fighting on strongly behind a very good animal, Quantico. If he holds that form into this, he’ll take beating.

9 Irish Songs (Bet Now: $6.50) is getting on in years but he’s racing as well as ever to my eye. Excellent effort in The Kosciuszko two back before going to the Goulburn Cup where he was a fast finishing fourth. Back to 1200m I find interesting, but good speed in front, he’ll get his chance to launch late.

8 Marabi (Bet Now: $2.20) is a fascinating runner. Maher/Eustace trained mare that was 3/3 in the Autumn to start her career, all three runs being done in fast time. She does look Stakes class, so keen to see how she goes here up in grade against some likely types. Market will be the guide but can’t tip against her.

3 Imperial Hilton (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented four year old for Patrick Payne that resumes. He was down to run last Saturday at Cranbourne but due to a bottomless track was scratched in preference for this. He showed good promise last prep in town so is certainly capable in a race like this and has trialled nicely.

6 Harlem Blues (Bet Now: $21.00) is a definite winning threat. Team Snowden four year old that didn’t really handle the tight track fresh at Gosford behind subsequent Stakes performer, Belluci Babe. Then went to Rosehill when sitting off a genuine speed and working to the line nicely behind Undeniable. Has run well at Ballarat before, he’ll sit off a good speed and be strong late.

5 Alcyone (Bet Now: $3.20) looks a very good horse of the future and could well be a contender in some good races this time next year. He still looks a bit dumb, raw, new to the caper in the sense he doesn’t know how to put them away properly, but he was still dominant in winning two weeks ago at Flemington. He’s the one to beat.

If you were on 8 Fifth Position (Bet Now: $8.00) at Flemington, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. He was backed with confidence and really, should have bolted in, but just didn’t get clear air at the right time before eventually getting clear and charging late to just miss. He’s back on track and now up to 2000m, hard fit, he’s likeable.

10 Saracen Knight (Bet Now: $15.00) looks back on track. He had been off the boil for around 12 months but there was good merit to his run at Flemington last time when a closing fourth to Alcyone. He’s got more upside than most. Whether he wants a rise in trip, not sure, but he gets respect here from me.

I’m going to speck one at a big price here in the shape of 4 In A Twinkling (Bet Now: $46.00). Former Kiwi that had his first run for Lindsey Smith last Saturday in the Cranbourne Cup. Was $51+ but I thought his effort from last in the run was full of merit behind King Magnus. Only guessing, but I reckon he’s being set for the Pakenham Cup where he’ll get to a suitable trip. But, last Saturday was very encouraging, he’s got upside to come and will be strong late.

15 Skyman (Bet Now: $10.00) is bursting to win a race. Chris Waller trained gelding that had the A1 run in transit last start on Cup Day at Flemington and was there to win, but couldn’t get past Milton Park and had to settle for second. 2000m should be fine and he’s consistent. Deserves a win and gets his chance.

1 Yonkers (Bet Now: $21.00) has to lump 60kg and he has class. He was down to run last Saturday at Newcastle but has been kept on ice for this. He had zero luck in the Rosehill Gold Cup and was warming up late behind Think It Over. If he brings his best, anywhere near it, he goes close.

11 Typhoon Harmony (Bet Now: $4.00) looks hard to beat for the Gelagotis team. Ran in the Country Final on Oaks Day at Flemington where he was specked at odds. Given a peach by McNeil but had to settle for a second to an improving Bermadez. Holding his form really well this prep and should be around the mark.

8 Seiner’s Express (Bet Now: $4.20) is a ripper for the Maher/Eustace camp and looks hard to beat here. Ran over the mile two weeks ago at Flemington and worked home strongly from off the speed, looming to win but couldn’t quite get there when third to Our Playboy, who ran well last Saturday in the Cranbourne Cup, so the form reads well.

10 Tatunka (Bet Now: $31.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He ran two weeks back over this trip at Flemington and while he was held, he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Our Playboy. A strong 1600m is the query with him but back to 78 grade, he does appeal.

Looks to be good speed in this race, which I think suits 2 Outlaws Revenge (Bet Now: $6.00). He resumed on the Parks track two weeks ago over 1000m. Just found them a bit sharp but was good late when second to Tequila Time. Fitter and up to 1100m, sitting off a good speed, he’ll be strong at the end.

1 Ranting (Bet Now: $13.00) is a bludger but this is one of the easier races he has contested throughout his career. Didn’t fire a shot on Cup Day down the straight behind Quantico, but that horse is very smart, so that form I do like for a race like this. Tinkering with some head gear, Olly on, one last chance.

4 Aquagirl (Bet Now: $23.00) should be much better suited at this level. Thrown in the deep end on Oaks Day at Flemington and found the class a bit much behind Halvorsen. Back to this kind of race, if that run hasn’t busted, her prior form was good enough to go close against this lot.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 Duchess Of Dorset

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 5 Alcyone

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 In A Twinkling

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 5, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4, 11, 15, 16

Leg Three: 4, 8, 10, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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