2/5/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warrnambool, Warrnambool Cup day

The iconic Warrnambool Carnival concludes this Thursday, headlined by the Grand Annual (5500m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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7 Affluential (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for John Leek Jr. This gelding has won his past two, finishing best to win two back at Pakenham before bolting up over 2520m at Cranbourne on Friday night, getting better as the race went on and won with something in hand. Back to the jumps, hard fit, flying…he’ll do me.

8 Huntly Castle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was looking like a donkey but now Declan Maher has got a hold of him and has got him jumping, he looks a potential jumps star. His Maiden Hurdle win at Pakenham last time was arrogant, getting better as the race went on and had plenty in hand. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

1 Frankenstar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a good record at Warrnambool and is capable with his best. He ran at Ballarat last time in a Hurdle and just struggled to pick his feet up in the conditions but he wasn’t too bad in defeat behind Rising Renown. Gets a hungry Campbell Rawiller to steer and we know last season that he was clearly the best jumps jockey.

6 Our Sassy Lady (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here for Price/Kent. This filly was a drifter in betting when debuting at Sandown but nobody told the filly that because she made an absolute mess of them and was impressive the way she put them away. She’s a filly heading in the right direction and looks the one to beat against this lot.

5 Riverina Power (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Tom Dabernig trained filly that is dangerous. She resumed over 1200m at Caulfield where she got back off the speed and worked home well enough I thought in a bunched finish behind She’s Bulletproof. Fitter and up in trip, home track, she is a threat for sure.

3 Dantoonie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improving type for Tom Dabernig and for mine, commands respect. He did more than enough when debuting at Horsham, running second. He made amends last time out, spanking them in an Avoca maiden where he looked a good thing and duly saluted. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

3 My Yankee Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in an open race. Vincent Malady trained mare that resumes, having not raced since Ballarat Cup Day when lapping up the bottomless track and was too good in a strong display. Been given a good break and with two jumpouts under the belt, the grounding is there to say she’ll run well fresh.

4 Wolflands (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Team Hayes. This guy resumed over 1100m at Bendigo where he got back in the run and made up solid headway but was never really a threat behind the very much in form mare Senegalia. Better for that run under the belt and with good improvement to come, rates highly for mine.

8 Stripped Black (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Lindsey Smith trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since Bendigo Cup Day when racing over 1400m and should have gone close to finishing, but got badly held up at a vital stage behind Dashing. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and trained on the track, watch the market.

3 Miss Galore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning for Price/Kent. This mare was a clear forgive first up at Sandown behind Niance after sitting wide no cover. She then went to Pakenham and chased strongly from off the speed but couldn’t quite get past General Firepower. Third up, hard fit and this isn’t a deep race.

5 Mawkeb (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back. Team Hayes trained mare that looked well placed when racing last time out at Mornington but she was very much on the plain side and was never a factor, but post race she was found to be lame so that was a clear forgive. Prior efforts were sound and good enough to take this out.

8 Bellini Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Lindsey Smith and can take this out. She got a fair way out of her ground at Terang last start and while she was never a winning threat, I liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind Eugenius. Has a good record at the Bool and if she can get a drag into the race, she’ll be dangerous.

3 Rocky Path (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me each way in a very open race. Lindsey Smith trained mare that ran over the mile at Caulfield last time where she got back to near last in the run and made up ground but late on, she got badly held up and went around like it was a barrier trial. Unknown at 2000m, but is racing like it will be fine and seems the value.

2 Gottabesavvy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should love the rise to 2000m. Busuttin/Young trained gelding that ran over 1800m at Caulfield Heath last start. He got back in the run and was held up at times but once clear, he found the line and was pretty good in defeat. Like him up in trip, gets Nash, drawn out…rates highly.

1 Dashing Duchess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks quite progressive for Symon Wilde and rates highly off a win at Ballarat where she got better as the race went on, drawing clear very late in the piece. I think in time, she’ll get to 2000m+. Ideally, she would have been a Warrnambool Cup candidate but has been kept on ice for something of lesser quality. Hard to beat.

5 Goldenstatewarrior (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very progressive import for Chris Waller and should take beating against this lot. He made his Australian debut at Bendigo over the mile three weeks ago and while he was never a winning threat, I really liked the way he finished his race off behind Coco Sun. That form is A1 for this and with enormous upside, rates highly.

11 The Creator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can take this out for Price/Kent. This gelding was a strong winner two back over the mile at Pakenham, winning in quite dominant fashion. He then went to Caulfield Heath where he seemingly had his chance near the speed but couldn’t quite finish the race off behind Chiluly. His best is good enough so he commands respect.

2 Thunder Point (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the quick back up for Symon Wilde after racing on Tuesday at this track/distance in the open handicap when outclassed but far from disgraced in defeat behind Rolls in a tidy effort. Not a noted wet track horse but he bring strong form. Just needs to overcome the gate.

3 Bell Ex One (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is humming for Andrew Bobbin I feel. He has been excellent on the flat this time in, the latest at Kyneton when a closing second to Sandefault. His jumps trials this time in have been quite good, he’s got flat speed, handles all conditions, will be strong late…he’ll take beating.

2 Rockstar Ronnie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the defending champ and class will carry him a long way. He ran third to Stern Idol at Pakenham where he was quite weak late after seemingly getting a decent enough run in transit. He looks to have been set for the race, he’ll press forward and is a proven performer at this level. He’ll be dangerous with his best.

4 Brungle Bertie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the Grant National winner from last year that likely has eyes on that race again but that is not to say he can’t take this out. He was ridden with intent at Pakenham last time but when asked for the big effort, he didn’t fire and was very much on the plain side late behind Stern Idol. Better suited at this trip and with a more patient steer, he can run a much improved race.

5 So Risque (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Team Hayes. He comes here with fresh legs, with his last race being on March 2 at Flemington where he seemingly had every chance from just off the speed but couldn’t get past the very much in form Arran Bay. Good form around him, consistent and is rarely far away. Leading contender.

9 Green Fly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. Team Freedman trained gelding that has been strong in two runs back from a spell. Did more than enough fresh at Flemington behind He’s Our Bonneval before going to Bendigo where he worked home with real purpose from the back behind a good horse, Chorlton Lane. Hard fit now, he appeals.

7 Chief Altony (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would love this track to be heavy. He is a swimmer for Alex Rae that is second up after resuming over 1200m at The Valley where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, he did make up ground in a decent effort. Fitter, Blinkers on, Shinn, he ticks plenty of boxes.

10 Ferago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a great each way gamble in the. Given he looked great in a jumps trial, I assumed he’d be a good thing in a Maiden Hurdle but he lines up here, so I am assuming the stable used a jumps trial to sharpen him up, which looks to have done the track by the looks, and with Blinkers on, he loves give in the track, he stays…great gamble at odds.

4 Little Mix (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a straight bat option. Annabel Neasham trained mare that tried her guts out in the Mornington Cup last time but had no answers late and had to settle for a second to surprise winner Esti Feny. She has that 2400m run under the belt, kind map, and gets B Shinn. Plenty to like about her.

1 Suizuro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with his best. This guy comes through the Easter Cup at Caulfield where he got into a decent spot near the speed but couldn’t quite get involved and was a bit on the plain side late in the piece behind Captain Envious. Like him up in trip and with Nash aboard, can take this out without surprising.

13 Rose Of Shalaa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out. Matty Williams trained filly that resumed at Ballarat in a 1200m maiden where she looked hard to beat on paper and she duly saluted, sitting on speed before being clicked up and away she went, winning quite impressively. Trained on the track and with good upside to come, rates highly.

8 Gronkowski (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Clayton Douglas, having not raced since Good Friday at Yarra Valley when not entirely suited on the tight track so I am forgiving of that effort behind Heavenly Eagle. Fresh legs and back in trip, Nash on, he appeals.

18 Imminent Storm (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a four start career for Pat McKenna. This gelding was knocking on the door to break the maiden tag and it came on Terang Cup Day over 1400m, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display. Likely will be spotting them a start but should be strong at the end.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 6 Our Sassy Lady

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 7 Affluential

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 10 Ferago

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 5, 7, 9, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10

Leg Four: 4, 8, 13, 18

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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