2/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Guineas day

A bumper ten event program has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday for Australian Guineas Day. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Sans Doute (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Mark Walker and appeals despite the rise in grade/depth. She has won her past two, both down the Flemington straight, winning with ease over 1000m two back before fighting hard for it several weeks back over 1100m but did enough to win. Good test here, but she’s on the up and confident she can handle the rise in grade/depth and acquit herself.

1 Cinderella Days (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Grahame Begg trained mare that resumes. Formerly with Joe Pride, it’s rare that a horse improves when leaving Pride but off trials/jumpout, this mare is humming. She saves her best for when she is produced fresh and this isn’t an overly deep race so I am keen to see how she goes. Market will be key.

7 Cute As (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Shane Fliedner trained mare that was far from disgraced two back in the Bellmaine at Caulfield behind Vagrant before going to the straight here where she got back off the speed but worked home strongly late, just missing out on the win when a close up third to Big Watch. Back to Mares grade, she rates highly.

4 Strawberry Rock (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. He was a few weeks between runs when racing a few weeks back at Caulfield over 1800m. He got back to near last and spotted them a tidy start but he closed off with real purpose late in the piece when third to El Soleado. He has run well at 2000m+, he has upside and in the right camp.

5 Up And Under (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited up in trip. Chris Waller trains this former Irish galloper, who made his Australian debut over the mile here two weeks back behind Rumbled Again. He got back to near last in the run and worked home well in a good effort I thought. He can settle much closer in the run and with good upside to come, rates highly.

8 Think N Fly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard fit and racing in super form at the moment for Dave Noonan. Dominant winner at Ararat two back before going to Bendigo where he had a battle with Country Cups King, Station One, and in the end, it was the bob of the head that was the difference. Doubt he wins but a must for exotics given how well he’s racing.

6 Big Watch (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and he can certainly go on with it for Michael Moroney. He won down the straight here two weeks ago, letting down with purpose from off the speed to finish best in a strong win. He was a few weeks between runs and back from 1300m to 1100m so back up in trip, he’ll take beating again I’d suggest.

9 Moral Force (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been strong in two runs for Lindsey Smith after formerly being with Mitch Freedman. Dominant first up winner at Warrnambool before racing there again when finding a bog track and tried his guts out but found one better in Brung King, a noted swimmer. Freshened up and with firmer footing, he appeals.

8 Ivan’s Hero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Chris Waller trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since October 14 at Randwick when racing over 1400m and seemingly had every chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Sequestered. Good fresh horse, has trialled up well leading in…watch the market.

I really liked the debut win of 5 Drifting (Bet Now:  $SP.00) at Hawkesbury for Team Snowden. I was very keen on Diddle Dumpling in the race and she wasn’t given much hope with the ride but was still plain. Drifting showed nice change up speed under Tom Sherry and she was very strong to/through the line over 1000m so for me, she’s hard to beat.

1 Bold Bastille (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat provided she’s all sweet. She pulled up lame in the Blue Diamond Prelude where she led and tired badly late, with the lameness being the reason for the poor finale. She is too good of a filly to sack off that run, which had a clear excuse, so provided she’s all good, I think she will be around the mark.

7 Grinzinger Love (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Danny O’Brien trained filly that is on debut. She has trialled/jumped out well enough to my eye in readiness for start one, a trial being at Geelong on Jan 30 where she finished down the track but moved nicely. Drawn out, home track, stable likes to fire up during Carnival time, watch the market.

Fitter and bigger track are two big ticks for 5 Moesha (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This girl resumed three weeks ago in the Peter Le Grand where she got to last in the run and while she was never threatening impressive winner Estriella, the way she found the line was very good for a horse wanting more ground, but there are several speed demons here, so she’ll be stronger than most.

2 Satin And Silk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) likely leads this field up and she will give cheek I am sure. She did that over 955m at The Valley last time, producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in. Last bit of 1100m will test but she will give herself every chance with her racing pattern.

4 Diamond Decorator (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. Several weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Caulfield when leading throughout and she was much too good in a dominant display, albeit the depth wasn’t deep but she was impressive. Good racing style here to give herself every chance.

6 Another Wil (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit on these and he’ll keep winning. Ciaron Maher trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since an arrogant win at Caulfield where he made an absolute mess of them, winning by a space but could have won by much further had Jamie Kah asked him for an effort. Very promising horse and barring bad luck, he’s a good thing.

3 Ceerseven (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is next best. Mitch Freedman has this guy humming at the moment, winning well at The Valley two back before going to Randwick where he was strong to the line in winning in what turned out to be a blanket finish. Maps ideally, hard fit, in form…doubt he beats the fav, but runs well.

Interesting runner is 7 Aristonous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for Annabel Neasham. He comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since Jan 27 at Randwick where he seemingly had every chance and was just fair in the run to the line behind an in form Floating. Fresh legs at the mile I find interesting but his best is good enough to be dangerous.

8 Estriella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have come back in beast mode for Ciaron Maher. She resumed three weeks ago in the Kevin Hayes at Caulfield where she looked the winner a long way out. Just a matter of getting clear air and once Shinn angled her wider, away she went and she gapped them in a very sharp display. Has run well down the straight previously but she is a much better horse this time around.

1 Caballus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Bjorn Baker since making it 2/2 for the stable when winning the Eskimo Prince. I will say that while he was dominant, he did have race fitness on his side and was in the best part of the track, letting down with purpose late. Stable have targeted this race and they also love the straight course. He has the runs on the board to prove hard to beat, but I am still not 100% convinced he’s the real deal. Want to see him here first.

4 Scentify (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for Ciaron Maher. This guy resumed on Australia Day in the Manfred where he just found the 1200m a bit sharp but he stayed on and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Brave Mead. Much better set up this time around with good speed, strong late…not sure he wins, but a must for multiples.

I am really surprised that 5 Zipaway (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the price he is. Very good WA three year old that is three weeks between runs since contesting the Autumn Stakes when first up, giving weight to his rivals, and he kept finding the line in a very strong effort behind Snow Patrol. He returns to set weights, he’ll eat up the Flemington and has runs on the board to say he will be hard to beat, and at the price, he’s the each way bet for me.

1 Riff Rocket (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a star and is clearly the one to beat. The Derby winner resumed with an absolute bang when taking out the CS Hayes a fortnight back and gee he was dominant, with a touch of arrogance, the way in which he put them away. He’ll eat up a truly run mile, good upside, runs on the board…hard to beat.

10 Verdad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning threat. He had been trialling up enormous at Cranbourne and he backed that up when resuming in the CS Hayes where he got back in the run and worked home strongly late between runners when third to Riff Rocket. I can’t see him turning the tables but he runs well and is a must for exotics.

1 Bustler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love getting to the mile for Neville Parnham. WA galloper that resumed three weeks ago in the CF Orr where he was last and chasing throughout due to the tempo and while he was never threatening, he wasn’t too bad to/through the line. Flemington 1600m looks a better set up and the depth is nowhere near as strong. Great each way gamble.

11 Berkeley Square… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gee he has been an enigma for a long time but he keeps teasing punters with eye catching runs, as seen first up in The Elms. He had a suck run from the inside gate and poked his way through in a strong return behind Makram, finishing just over three lengths away. Good second up record and fitter, up to the mile, he’s in with a shout.

8 Makram… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) what on earth was that first up performance? He can pull out a decent run in a prep but not many would have predicted his win in The Elms and how dominant it was. Yes, the final margin was just 0.5L, but he was held up until just after the 200m mark and got clear to savage the line and win. No reason why he can’t repeat the dose with good upside in the tank.

4 Arran Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in for a good prep and is one of the leading contenders. This guy was specked at odds a fortnight back over 1400m here. He got back off the speed and was never really a threat but he kept chasing and was pretty good to/through the line late in the piece behind Jennilala. Great second up record, can settle much closer…hard to beat.

7 He’s Our Bonneval (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but he is a horse who has the engine under the hood to measure up. He ran at this track/distance a fortnight back behind Jennilala and I thought he was very good in defeat the way he closed off late in the piece, beaten 1.55L. That was his first run in four weeks so with good room for improvement, he rates highly.

6 Royal Mile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a handy horse for Briedoake/Jenkins that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since August 19 at Caulfield when far from disgraced in defeat behind Amenable, who went on to be more than competitive at Group l level. Jumpout work has been encouraging and I do feel he has the engine under the hood to measure up.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Another Wil

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Tintookie

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Zipaway

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 9, 11

Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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