2/3/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Lex Piper Stakes day

A strong nine race card has been set down for Ascot on Saturday. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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7 Bonjoy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks herself. On the seven day back up after racing last Saturday at this track/distance where she gave them a start and a beating, finishing best in a pretty impressive display. She has been up a little while but is holding her form superbly and facing a similar line up, I do think she has a bit on this lot. Keen.

5 Material Witness (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through the race mentioned above from last Saturday. His run in defeat was massive. He did too much work on speed and was entitled to run last but he kept fighting and only got the staggers very late in the piece. If he finds the front and gets some form of control, he’ll run a cheeky race.

3 Birdieagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. This guy ran in the Bonjoy race from last Saturday where he lobbed into a beaut spot off the speed and presented to win but didn’t fire a shot in the straight and was plain the last 200m. He’s too much of a genuine animal to dismiss off one run so giving him another look.

1 Angels Impact (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a beauty for Mike Santich and with strong form lines around him, he rates as clearly the one to beat. He resumed two weeks ago in the 2YO Magic Millions at Pinjarra where he got back off the speed and found the line with real purpose in a strong return behind Big Shots. Back to this level, he only has to run up to last start and he’ll have a bit on these I feel.

7 Bustling (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Frosted gelding that is on debut for Dan Morton. This guy has had extensive trial work dating back to December, with three trials under the belt, and each time he has moved pretty good to my eye, suggesting he’ll take beating at start one, and overall, this isn’t a deep race.

8 Keep Ita Mystery (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. This son of War Chant is on debut for Luke Fernie that trialled over 400m at Belmont last Tuesday. He moved well enough and yes, hard to get a proper guide on the trials over that trip, but he seemed to go about his business nicely and the stable are very good with their juveniles so watch the market.

3 Fortune’s Luck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Adam Durrant trained gelding mare that has had two runs back from a spell, resuming with an eye catching effort at Bunbury before going to Geraldton a tick over two weeks ago where she seemingly had every chance but was very plain in the straight. Third up, hard fit, CJP on, she gets a great chance to get a metro win.

5 Yarralea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating back to this level. Ran in a strong race a fortnight back at Pinjarra when just off the speed and while she had her chance, I thought she was very good in defeat behind Petula, who would be $1.10 against these, so that form clearly reads well for this I feel.

4 Miss Intention (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Mitch Pateman trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since Dec 2 over 2100m here when at the end of her prep, finishing down the track behind Diamond Scene. Better suited over further but 1500m fresh tells me this isn’t a total waste of a run and she will be strong at the end.

6 Sonoftheboss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Jim Taylor trains this three year old, who resumes. Hasn’t raced since Dec 28 at Ascot when a strong on speed winner over 1100m, so he’s a short course specialist and has trialled up super, plus gets Jason Brown, who you’d think has chosen this guy over Ginnivan.

5 Ginnivan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Jim Taylor since sitting on speed at Bunbury where he copped heat in front and credit to him, he kept finding and only really got the staggers late, nabbed late by Ruler Rocket. Good racing style and is tough, plus gets CJP. One of the leading contenders.

2 Lexington City (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. Simon Miller trained gelding that ran down the straight at Pinjarra behind Nurhaci. He was held at times and somewhat luckless so forgive and forget the run. Better suited around a bend and with better luck in running, he can take this out.

8 Snow Prince (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks better suited here I feel. Team Casey trained three year old that was thrown in the deep end when resuming in the 3YO Magic Millions at Pinjarra two weeks ago. He had a sweet run in transit and tried hard but just lacked the change up speed to put them away late in the piece behind Bondi Bubbles. Back to this level, better for the run, he appeals.

1 Sunny Honey (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is better suited around a bend and can bounce back. He ran down the straight at Pinjarra a fortnight back and tried hard but was on the wrong part of the track so forgive and forget the run behind Nurhaci. Better around a bend and back a fair way in grade/depth, he appeals.

10 Vampi At Play (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and she can certainly go on with it for Neville Parnham. Was a little while out of the winners list but that all changed two weeks back at Pinjarra when a strong winner over 1200m, finishing best in a sharp display. Now she has got a win on the board, her confidence is up and she can keep winning.

10 Sapphire Street (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very consistent animal for Dan Morton and rates as one of the leading contenders for mine. He ran over 1300m at Pinjarra two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and spotted those in front a tidy start but I really liked the way he found the line late in the piece behind Petula. 1400m is fine and with luck from the tricky gate, he’s the one they have to beat.

4 Thehorseman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is putting together a tidy record for Neville Parnham. He put together a couple of nice wins on the bounce at Bunbury and Belmont before going here on Jan 27 when near the speed and fought on really well in defeat behind Antique Miss. Maps ideally and fresh legs at 1400m suggests he’s ready to go.

1 Cobbanco (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will welcome the drop in grade/depth, who ran in a strong race at Pinjarra two weeks back when back off the speed and held up at times but did make up headway and was solid enough in defeat behind Multinational. Good track/distance record and drops in depth. Knockout chance.

5 Cosmic Crusader (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to resume a winner for me. Likely has eyes on the Derby like most here, but he is a very good animal. Ended last prep in the WA Guineas where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Zipaway after getting keen in the run. Given a break and I thought his recent trial was a sparkling piece of work so I am quite keen on his prospects here.

1 Russian To The Bar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying this time in for Luke Fernie, winning 3/3 this time in. Latest of those wins came last Wednesday here in the Challenge Stakes where he was impressive, tucked in behind the speed before angling clear and finishing best to win and win well. Not sure he has much upside but he only has to hold his form to be around the mark.

6 Royal Toronado (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to the mile. Team Williams trained three year old that comes through the Challenge from last Wednesday where he was an eye catcher I thought, getting back and making up solid headway without threatening behind Russian To The Bar. I think he’ll become quite dangerous if he can settle closer.

2 Queen Nardi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bred to eat up a staying trip and has the Durrant polish so with that in mind, I am leaning her way. She has been up a while but is seemingly thriving with the workload. Bit on the plain side two back here behind Alaskan before going to Geraldton where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted. Needs to do it away from the Provincials but I think she has the talent to do so.

3 Own The Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for Justine Erkelens. Impressive win to break the maiden two back at Pinjarra before going to 1400m here last Wednesday off a near two month break and she gapped them in a sharp display. Off that, 1800m is ideal and with good upside to come, rates highly.

4 Starating (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout for Fred Kersley. This girl was a first up maiden winner at Pinjarra before racing here over 1400m last Wednesday when not really suited by the race shape but kept finding the line in a pretty good effort behind Papavero Princess. Racing like 1800m suits and has good upside to come.

1 Beats Of War (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. Be very forgiving of his run at Pinjarra last time given he was wide, very keen in the run and had nothing left for the straight when down the track behind Tiff’s Lad. Previous winner at Ascot and I think with better racing manners, he’s going to take beating against this lot given the depth isn’t overly deep.

8 Alaskan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. He likely has eyes on the WA Derby but it’s interesting he is going down the older horses path. Two on the bounce, winning at Bunbury to break the maiden tag before going to 1800m where he let down with purpose late to win and win well. Good test here, but confident he measures up.

2 Brave Contender (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a veteran but he has a good racing style and comes to town off a win. That came at Albany when leading throughout over 1500m and credit to him, he kicked when required to fend them off and win. Not sure he wins, but if he gets some level of front end control, he could pinch top four.

BEST BET: Race One Number 7 Bonjoy

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Angels Impact

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Queen Nardi

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 10

Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Four: 1, 2, 8, 9,11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful.

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