2/2/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Manfred Stakes day

A strong card of racing has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday where it is W J Adams Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Bit of a nothing race to start the day so I’ll trust the speed map and have something each way on 11 Redcore (Bet Now: $8.00) for Greg Eurell. He has had a couple of 1200m runs under the belt and has been solid each time, the latest at Sandown behind Tin Hat, who of course is a leading chance in the Manfred. Parks behind Sam’s Image/Tony Nicconi, hopefully gets clear air.

1 Tony Nicconi (Bet Now: $3.90) is a handy sprinter for the Hayes/Dabernig team that resumes. He was just a couple of lengths off the top tier three year olds in the Spring, finishing a well beaten third behind Written By in the Blue Sapphire before being tipped out. I think second tier sprints are his go and his recent jumpout looked pretty encouraging to the eye.

7 Mystyko (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Trevor Rogers trained gelding who has definitely earned a crack at Saturday grade. He has won his past two in town at the midweeks, firstly over 1200m here before going to Sandown where he did work to get on speed but still proved too good for his rivals. Clearly his toughest test in recent times, but each the time bar has been raised, he has handled it.

5 Khezerabad (Bet Now: $3.00) did some very good things for me last start at Flemington at huge odds so I’ll go with him again. He was a very good winner I thought because he looked a beaten horse 400m out but he kept finding under Micky Dee and despite him dropping the whip late, he proved too good. Lands on speed again and potentially controls things to suit himself.

2 Second Bullet (Bet Now: $2.60) is on the seven day back up for the Danny O’Brien team after racing over 2000m here last Saturday where he was looking to warm to the task late but for mine just got held in restricted room when wanting to build behind Tarquin. Much better suited at 2400m and at his best, clearly one of the leading chances. Same thing was said about Lycurgus…

1 Aloft (Bet Now: $23.00) could sneak a first four spot with luck in running. He is being at the jumping caper but did trial well at Stony Creek prior to resuming over the mile at Flemington where the tempo was an absolute crawl and he had no chance of dashing behind Silentz. 2400m looks his trip and when trained by Team Williams, his form was far better than anything engaged here. A win wouldn’t totally shock.

Giving the nod to 2 Naantali (Bet Now: $2.50) in a tricky race. I reckon she’s going well for the Maher/Eustace stable. Has just needed a bit of racing to get her fitness levels near peak I think. Last run came over 1400m at Flemington where she seemed to have her chance but battled away quite well in defeat when second to Set To Sparkle. Stable are having a good run at the moment, so I think this mare can more than hold her own.

3 Amortentia (Bet Now: $6.50) is a mare who looks to be flying and deserving of a win. Ran over 1400m at Flemington a few weeks against the mares where she attempted to lead all the way and she gave a good kick in the straight but just found a couple better in the shape of Set To Sparkle and Naantali. Think this is a very winnable mares race for her.

4 Magnesium Rose (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Matthew Lindsay trained mare who has been quite good in three runs back from a break. Should have just about fought the finish out here over 1200m two back before racing over the same trip at Sandown when on speed and not quite showing the same dash when fourth to Tin Hat. Up to 1400m, and with cover, he’ll be better off.

8 Good Idea (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained galloper who I think has to be given another chance. He attempted to lead all the way over 2100m at Sandown last Wednesday and I think leading isn’t his go. He’s better when near the speed but not leading all the way. I think if he can get a bit of cover in the run and not be the one setting the speed, he’ll take some beating.

1 Lamborghini (Bet Now: $3.90) is on the seven day back up for the Patrick Payne stable after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where I think it was a total forgive if you were on. He was back in the run and when they’re running home in a tick over 34 for the final 600m, he just had no hope of running that quick. If he’s close enough on the turn, he’s certainly good enough.

9 Music Of The Night (Bet Now: $8.50) is certainly an interesting runner given she was scratched from a much easier race on Friday night at the Valley in preference for this. Ran over this track/distance last time and did work in the run in what was a very game performance behind Teodora. Gets right down in the weights after the claim and this depth does look rather thin.

3 Lanigera (Bet Now: $4.80) goes on top. James Cummings trains this daughter of Denman, who debuted in the Debutant back in the Spring where she showed really good speed to lead and tired late when fourth to Champagne Boom. Been given a good break and looked really sharp in her Flemington jumpout win. Should probably lead this field and prove hard to run down.

1 Bella Rosa (Bet Now: $6.50) has the runs on the board. This Maher/Eustace trained filly debuted on Cup Day down the straight in horrendous conditions yet sat on speed and outgunned her rivals, some of which had race experience on their side, so it’s a big tick for her in that regard. The Caulfield jumpout was solid enough. Think she’ll improve with the run but does have a touch of quality about her.

Phillip Stokes has 6 Done By Me (Bet Now: $8.00) engaged here and I think she commands a bit of respect. Beaten by a handy one it seems in Free Of Debt (Subsequent Flemington winner) on debut before going to a Sale maiden over 1000m where she put them away with a nice turn of foot and ran some good late splits. Didn’t beat much but has the hard race fitness/experience under the belt.

Race has been seriously knocked about by scratchings. Landed with 7 Antah (Bet Now: $2.80) for Jason Warren, who was seven weeks between runs when winning impressively under the lights at Pakenham last time, just getting there in the last stride but running very good late splits in doing so. Think he’s got a stack of upside to come and he strikes a winnable race.

3 Notio (Bet Now: $3.70) is a hard one to follow and trust but his best version would see him run well here and the speed map does look ideal for him. He just a couple of pairs further back than normal and just couldn’t dash when those in front sprinted on the turn. He stuck on and the effort was more than sound. Gets gate one, should sit much closer and is a definite threat.

5 Kaching (Bet Now: $4.00) could just about be ready to show something third up. He ran over 1400m at Flemington last time in a slowly run affair and didn’t get much room in the straight when wanting to build the revs and I thought his run had plenty of merit behind Bad Wolf. First up run here was a beauty and he does seem to be looking for the mile. Definite chance.

Great to see 4 Written By (Bet Now: $1.90) back at the races. Quality three year old colt for Grahame Begg who is resuming after a three run Spring prep, which ended with a gutsy fourth in the Coolmore behind Sunlight. His work/jumpouts have been quite encouraging…does he have the speed and toughness first up to match it and beat Nature Strip? I’d say no, but he’ll run well.

7 Encryption (Bet Now: $3.70) is a James Cummings trained three year old that resumes. He ran a couple of ripping races in the Spring, with the prep ending with a closing fifth in the Coolmore behind Sunlight. The Randwick trial was a bit inconclusive. He was ridden out the back, wide, and wasn’t really knocked about behind Mizzy. His best is certainly good enough to fill a minor spot.

Can’t back him to win but concede 3 Bons Away (Bet Now: $7.00) likely runs an honest race. He had a really good Spring prep. Just didn’t want to greet the judge first. He has once again looked a star at the jumpouts and you can get very easily sucked in by that, but he gets gate one and Meech back on, so a few ticks there…just hasn’t won in a very long time which is the query.

I’m going to side with the Hayes/Dabernig trained filly 11 Fundamentalist (Bet Now: $5.50). This filly ran a couple of huge races during the Spring, getting pipped here in the Thousand Guineas, running a mighty race on Cox Plate Day and then running a strong third in the Empire Rose. Looked very sharp and forward in a recent jumpout and appears ready to go first up.

10 Tin Hat (Bet Now: $2.90) doesn’t have the class/quality of some of these, but he is talented and has hard race fitness under the belt. 2/2 this time in, both coming at Sandown where he has been near the speed and just proved too good for his rivals, both times against older horses, which is always a good sign and the market support since Wednesday has been strong.

4 Ranier (Bet Now: $5.00) is a quality son of Lonhro for James Cummings who resumes. This bloke had the tag as a bit of a nonny but when he came to Melbourne, that all changed and won a couple of races impressively before being tipped out. Trialled up really well at Randwick to the eye and did win at this track in the Spring so I think he has to be respected against these.

7 Mr Money Bags (Bet Now: $2.50) shouldn’t be left out of the equation. Poor ride from Martin Seidl cost the horse to figure in the finish last start in the Chester Manifold. Just made the wrong calls at the wrong time and for mine he should have been in the finish. Hopefully can get clear air at the right time so we can how well he’s going leading potentially into the All Star Mile.

Up to 1400m should really suit the Shane Nicholls trained 12 Streets Of Avalon (Bet Now: $5.50). Outstanding first up effort here over 1100m when narrowly beaten before racing down the straight and finding them a tad sharp I thought. Now up to 1400m, third up, he can roll on speed and Zac Spain does seem to ride this horse better than most, so giving him another chance.

He’s better suited over a bit further but I can’t let 3 Our Peaky Blinders (Bet Now: $12.00) go around with a mention. Had three runs in the Spring and was being touted by the stablemate as one of their Spring players but just didn’t fire a shot. Been given a good break and I thought his recent Cranbourne jumpout was very good when on speed and under no riding. A must for multiples.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Naantali

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Written By

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 11 Redcore

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 4, 8, 9, 10, 11

Leg Four: 3, 7, 11, 12

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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