2/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

Ten races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday for Festival Stakes Day. Weather is fine, track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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2 Storm Boy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks wound right up for the debut. GaiBott trained colt that has had two trials to get ready for start one, winning them both and each time, he has been ridden right out to win by a space in solid time. From gate one, T Clark on, he should find the front comfortably and from there, I think he’ll dominate proceedings and be too good.

6 Canara (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. Chris Waller trains this filly, who debuted at this track/distance and was an eye catcher from off the speed when second to Spywire, who has been one of the more impressive juveniles seen this season. Better for the run under the belt, strong late, one of the leading contenders.

4 War Council (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has talent I feel. He debuted in the Golden Gift where he lost the plot early and was tailed off but the last 50-100m, he was actually pretty good late in the piece behind Shangri La Express. He has that run under the belt, will settle much closer…dangerous at a price.

8 California Grass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for John Thompson. Needed the run fresh on Goulburn Cup Day over 1300m before stepping up to 1890m at Newcastle where she got back but found the line with real purpose late when a narrow second. Hard fit now and up in trip, think she’ll take beating.

3 Celestial Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to get past. This gelding comes to Midway grade after a dominant all the way display at Hawkesbury last time. Did he beat much? No, but the manner in which he dismantled them was impressive. He’s a hard fit/in form animal with a good racing style so he appeals.

11 Philipsburg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. He ran over the mile at Gosford last week where he was a bit one paced and seemingly not at home on the tight track but was far from disgraced in defeat. Like him up to 2000m…he’s been frustrating to follow but he is suited at this level.

8 Toesonthenose (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for John Sargent. He was massive in defeat two back here in the Four Pillars after covering a stack of extra ground. He then went to the Midway at Newcastle a fortnight where he got better as the mile race went on and on the line. he was quite dominant. The rise in trip should be fine, maps ideally and hard to knock the way he’s racing.

10 State Of America (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. David Payne trained gelding that won the Midway on Big Dance Day at Randwick before going here at the midweeks where he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when a close up fourth to The Englishman. Slightly back in trip suits, maps perfect and won’t mind give in the track.

4 Colour Sergeant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had two runs at the mile under the belt now and I do think up to 1800m should be ideal. He comes through the Tavi Time race from two weeks back at Newcastle where he was ridden with intent from the good gate, settling near the speed and fought on well although clearly didn’t have the change up speed of the Kris Lees galloper. Like him up in trip and is a must for multiples.

17 You’re On Mute… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. 2/2 to start her career, winning impressively on debut at Leeton before being spelled and resuming at Gundagai where she settled just off the speed before coming with a well timed run and she just gapped her rivals late in a sharp display. Good test here but confident she measures up.

3 Orient’s Secret (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hit and miss but if he brings his best, I think he is the likely winner, but the gate makes things very tricky. Matty Dunn trains this gelding, who resumed at the midweeks at Eagle Farm where he gave them a start and a beating, letting down with real purpose late in the piece to win and win quite well. Has been kept on ice, potentially with this race in mind, and you do have to respect the stable.

2 Gallant Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Zoustar gelding for Brett Robb that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Feb 19 at Mudgee when attempting to lead throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite get there, tiring to run third. Recent trial was sharp and she has run well at Highway level previously. Definite chance.

10 Chase My Crown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up forever it seems like but gee Wayne Wilkes has this mare going super. She was specked at odds when racing at Newcastle on Hunter Day and was very good from near last on the turn when a closing third to the well tried Lekvarte. She has graduated from a Highway horse to being a Saturday class animal and I think she’ll take beating against these.

3 Hide Your Heart (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong this time in for Nathan Doyle. She won 3/3 to start the prep before going to Newcastle a fortnight back where she got too far out of her ground but was good late without threatening behind Lekvarte, beaten over two lengths. Think with a more positive ride, she’s dangerous and can certainly take this out.

4 Spirit Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. Narrow second on the Kenso fresh for the new stable before going to Rosehill a few weeks back where she was off the speed and just lacked the change up speed to go with them late behind Eagle Nest. Much better set up this time around so I think she can run a much improved race.

I’ll bank on class getting 1 Akasawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) home. He lumps 62kg but there is a reason for that. He has class, in spades, on this lot. Did more than enough in The Kosciuszko before never threatening in The Big Dance but did make up headway in a good effort. Trialled well at Scone last week, he won’t mind getting his toe in and maps to get a soft run to offset the impost.

4 Eaglemont (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well for Matty Dunn. Impressive winner at Eagle Farm two back before going to the Little Dance at Randwick where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Spangler, beaten just over three lengths. He has won up to 2149m so 2000m here is ideal and he gets Nash.

13 Zegalo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a must for exotics. He ran under the lights at Canterbury last time where he was near the speed throughout and although he lacked change up speed, he stuck on and was pretty good in defeat behind Brynner. Lands in a plum spot from the gate and should be strong at the end.

2 Rustic Steel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Kris Lees. He was outstanding first up at Randwick in the Sydney Stakes before going to The Hunter where he was dragged back from the wide gate and in a race dominated on speed, he was never a winning factor but I really liked the way he found the line behind Coal Crusher. Like him up in trip, and if he can settle closer in the run, he’s going to be hard to hold out.

5 Finepoint (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. She resumed here in the Hot Danish when wide no cover throughout but credit to her, she stuck on well albeit clearly no match for stablemate Roots. Maps to get a much better run in transit and if the inside is okay, she’s one of the leading contenders.

I think 14 Williamsburg (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will love getting his toe in and for mine, he’s an each way bet. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since Derby Day at Flemington when back in the run and failing to make up any real headway but he returns to his home track, he loves wet ground and the overall form around him does read quite well for a race like this.

I am going to back 4 Fox Fighter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) each way. He’s a quirky horse that is weirdly placed by David Payne at times but he did more than enough fresh on Big Dance Day when back in the run and closing off well enough behind Hard To Say. Good speed in front and with home track advantage, I can see him launching over the top

1 Malkovich (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality sprinter for Bjorn Baker that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Monash in the early part of the Spring when failing to fire in a plain effort behind Sigh. He’s had two trials to get ready for the return so the grounding is there and his pattern should be suited to the Rosehill 1100m. Watch the market.

9 Meritable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. He’s had a few homes throughout his career and is now with Mick Minervini. His very best is certainly good enough to be competitive here and his two trials to get ready have been more than encouraging to my eye. Doubt he wins, but maps ideally and could pinch a first four spot at a big price.

I am keen to give 2 Stockman (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance for Joe pride. Forgive the run in The Beauford at Newcastle from two weeks ago. Track was too firm for him and he didn’t let down at all. Prior efforts were strong and the big tick for him is a wet track. He swims and given his overall record, he looks really well in at the weights. Happy to give him another look.

1 Sky Lab (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Paul Perry and should take beating in a race like this. Just reckon Collett was a bit sleepy on him in The Beauford two weeks ago at Newcastle and left the horse with too much to do, but loved the way he found the line late when third to Stroke Of Luck. He’s racing like a rise to 2400m will suit and if there is more initiative re the ride, he’ll take beating.

6 Parry Sound (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rates highly. Sara Ryan trained gelding that was several weeks between runs when racing in The Beauford at Newcastle and I thought his effort from near last was quite encouraging, working home with real purpose late in the piece behind Stroke Of Luck in a race run in record time. That was his first run since Oct 7 so with upside, room for improvement, he’s a key winning chance.

12 Dollar Magic (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and take beating. This mare ran over 1100m at Rosehill three weeks back where she landed outside Eagle Nest and she tried her guts out to wear down the in form Ryan/Alexiou mare but she couldn’t quite get there, finishing second. Up to 1200m is a query but with a good racing style, hard fit, in form…hard to run down I’d suggest.

9 Smashing Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an awful racing pattern but he can launch late, which is what he did a few weeks back at Rosehill where he was one of the eye catchers of the meeting when a closing second to Way To The Stars. He will get back in the run but if they overdo it on speed, he can launch and finish over the top.

15 Valiancy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with her best. Maher/Eustace mare that was kept safe in betting when resuming on the Kenso but she didn’t really fire a shot and was a bit on the plain side behind Vegas Raider. She has a good second up record and loves getting her toe in so she’s dangerous against these.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 8 Toesonthenose

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Storm Boy

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 2 Stockman

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 5, 8, 14, 17

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 12, 15

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful.

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