2/12/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Winterbottom Stakes day

The Pinnacles at Ascot continues this Saturday, headlined by the Group l Winterbottom Stakes (1200m). Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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Winterbottom Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Winterbottom Stakes

3 Diamond Scene (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can continue putting his hand up for the Perth Cup if he keeps winning. Looked a moral three weeks ago in the Apprentices Cup and under a peach from Luke Campbell, he made a mess of them and was very impressive late the way he put them away. He has that 2200m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead, and gets Pike on.

1 Playhouse Patron (Bet Now:  $SP.00) ran fourth in the WA Derby so the rise in trip here should be fine. He ran a few weeks back over the mile here and was solid from off the speed, seemingly having every chance but battled to the line well. Like him up in trip and has more upside than most so don’t dismiss him.

13 Mystery Moment (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in pretty solid form for Susan Olive. She ran second to Diamond Scene in the race mentioned above from three weeks back where she was on speed throughout and tried her guts out but just had no answers for the finale of Diamond Scene, who looks Stakes class. That looks the right form, so she is a must for exotics.

9 Yonga Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is absolutely flying for Team Williams and it’s hard to get away from her. This mare has won two on the bounce, the latest coming two weeks ago at this track/distance when giving them a start and a beating in an electric performance, clocking decent late splits. The gate makes things tricky but it’s hard to ignore how well she is racing.

10 Laquetta’s Gift (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is four weeks between runs for Dion Luciani since racing over this track/distance when back off the speed, plenty of cover, before creeping into the race and kept finding the line but had to settle for a narrow third to a good mare, Malkar Pindari. Loses Pike but gets a decent map and Holly Watson is a jock riding really well at the moment.

4 Long Weekend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will land on speed and give cheek. He did that on Nov 15 here, leading throughout and while he was out of petrol tickets late, he had enough in hand to cling on. Back slightly in trip should be fine and if he gets a good time of it on speed, he’s dangerous enough to be around the mark.

11 Home James (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat back to 1000m. He ran over 1200m here three weeks ago where he was near the speed and seemingly going quite well before being clicked up and for a couple of strides, he looked the winner, but just found 1200m a bridge too far when a narrow third to The Boss Lady. Back in trip, back in depth, gets run of the race…hard to beat.

7 Bonnie Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but if they overdo it in front, look for him to launch at them late. He ran over 1000m at Bunbury last time where he got back in the run and did make up ground but was never really threatening behind Stormchaser. He has a good record at Ascot and with good speed in front, he can finish over the top.

5 On The Full (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run an improved race at odds. He ran over 1200m here three weeks back where he did too much work on speed and that early burn told late in the piece, tiring behind Deamber, running up to the late market drift. Like him back to 1000m, he’ll press forward and his best is certainly good enough to be dangerous.

11 Megami (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should take beating here. This mare was a little while out of the winners list but that changed at Northam over the mile when giving them a start and a beating, letting down hard to finish over the top for a big win. Yet to tick the 1800m box but the way she found the line last time, the rise in trip is fine and IMO is one of the hardest to beat.

7 Mountain Ash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win for Dan Morton. He attempted to lead throughout over the mile here two weeks ago and credit to him, he gave a decent kick but couldn’t quite see it through, run down late by Holy Enchantment in a driving finish. He has placed at the track/distance, he lands on speed and is tough to get past I’d suggest.

4 Classic Rogue (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is fourth up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Steele Casey. He ran in the Holy Enchantment race mentioned above from two weeks back where he was in a good spot behind the speed but just lacked the finale to go with them late, finishing 6/8, but only 2.5L from the winner. Has won at the track/distance previously and has upside. One for exotics.

5 Love Drunk Baby (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable of winning this provided she can settle handy. She has got back her past two and while each time she has caught the eye the way she has finished off, she is a mare who is much better when she can settle forward, so hopefully that can eventuate. Fernie stable loves to target these races and it’s in form.

2 Mungo Jerry (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a shocking gate to overcome but he is flying for Rickie Brown, winning his past two. Both wins have come at Kalgoorlie, winning two back over 1100m before going to 1200m and was dominant from on speed. If he can overcome the gate and land on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he’ll take beating.

6 God’s Moment (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has D Oliver on board and that could be enough alone to see this mare run an improved race. She has had two runs back, first up looking in need of the run before sitting four wide no cover last time and tired late. Maps to get a much better run in transit and with the jockey upgrade, she’s dangerous.

2 Belgrano Belle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) seems the straight bat option. She is four weeks between runs since racing over the mile here when on speed and looked the winner when clicked up by Pike but she found one better, just, in Special Sort. Like her back to 1400m and I reckon with a more patient steer, a bunny to chase, she’ll be far more effective.

13 Ima Single Gal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous if she can stretch her brilliance to 1400m. She has won her past two, both over 1200m here, with the latest coming on Nov 15 when leading throughout and although she was there to be run down, she found under pressure to fend them off and win. Think she will find the front and if she gets control, she’ll take running down.

1 Blazing Tycoon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate getting back up in trip. He was 1400m back to 1200m when racing at Bunbury last time where he got back off the speed and kept finding the line in a solid effort behind Stormy Tawny, beaten just over two lengths. Back up to 1400m is a big tick and while I doubt he wins, he can pinch a first four spot.

3 Stormchaser (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the one on the up. Luke Fernie trained three year old that comes here off the back of a win at Bunbury over 1011m where he gave them a start and a beating, launching late over the top for a big win first up. He is a horse with good upside/progression, he gets Pike, he races like 1400m will be fine, maps perfect…happy to be in his corner.

1 Investmentstrategy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the seven day back up for Neville Parnham after racing last Saturday in the Guineas where he had a suck run in transit behind the speed and tried his guts out but the mile was a bridge too far, as was stablemate Zipaway. Back to 1400m is ideal…the seven day back up I find interesting but the stable is flying.

6 Brave Strike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly that I think will be a force in the Classics in the Autumn. She ran two weeks back in the Champion Fillies and was solid from the back without threatening, making up decent headway behind a potential star, Keshi Boom. Back to 1400m is a negative but if she was able to settle closer in the run, she then becomes dangerous.

4 Rusty Dreams (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets another chance with me. On face value, she was a shade disappointing in the Jungle Mist two weeks ago but I will say I think she was ridden a touch warm and that took away her finale I thought. I think with a more conservative ride, she’ll be better off at the end, and she is a proven performer at 1400m.

7 Duchess Of Gossip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a slight query at 1400m but she has to be given another look. She was met with good market support a fortnight back in the Jungle Mist and she was pretty much ridden like she was in a barrier trial. Got back off the speed, tucked away nearer the inside and only got warm very late when eventually clear. Think with the run under the belt and up in trip, expect much more intent.

2 Jadavi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout hope with her best. This mare comes back to 1400m from the mile, having not raced since Oct 29 when down the track in the Northam Cup. Trial win on Monday was sharp and although she’ll be conceding a start, she should be strong at the end and is a must for multiples.

4 Hot Zed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a great each way bet.I thought his Colonel Reeves win was outstanding. Wide no cover and was entitled to knock up but he just kept finding and was strongest late in getting the win, He maps to get a perfect run off a genuine speed and given he has won at 1400m, a truly run 1200m will be no issue and will be there to pounce. Great each way gamble.

To put it simply, if 1 Overpass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings his best, he wins, and wins comfortably. But I can’t get out of my mind how bad he was in The Everest where he had every chance in front and was one of the first beaten in a very plain. Trial and work since has been solid and I think if you like him, you are gambling on him being better than these, which he may well be, but at the odds under $3, it’s a no from me. I think he’ll get to $3.50-$4+ and then he can be a bet.

12 Go Forward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a short course specialist who was somewhat unlucky in the Colonel Reeves two weeks back, getting badly held up when wanting to dash at them late. He maps to get a suck run and yes, 1200m is the query, but he was much as $71, which for him was crazy. He should be much shorter vs others higher up in betting.

12 Upper Limits (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is better suited over further but he has a touch of quality about him and that will carry him a long way. He resumes for Jeremy Easthope, having not raced since the Winter at Belmont when placing in the Belmont Classic behind a very nice horse, Ihts Closing Inn. He’s had two trials under the belt to get ready for the return and gets Pike fresh, which to me signals intent from the camp.

3 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Hinchinbrook for Roy Rogers that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since Anzac Day here over 1800m when down the track and producing an end of prep run in the Diggers Cup. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh, trial win was good and gets Oliver to steer, so watch the market.

4 Corn Cob (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be flying for Julia Martin. Formerly with Campbell McCallum, he is now with Martin and he looks to be flying based on a trial win at Geraldton where he won by a space and ran decent time. He has a good record at Ascot, goes well fresh…doubt he wins but can pinch a first four spot.

BEST BET: Race One Number 3 Diamond Scene

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 9 Yonga Lass

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 4 Hot Zed

Quaddie (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6

Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7

Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 8, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 9, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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