2/12/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Festival Stakes day

Blacktype racing returns to Rosehill this Saturday where it is Festival Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Rheingau (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the safe play in the opener. Son of Animal Kingdom that debuted here three weeks and while he looked a bit outsprinted, his best was very late and he hit the line with purpose when third to stablemate Dynamited. Form has been franked with Secret Lady winning the Golden Gift. Ticks the boxes.

7 Colombina (Bet Now: $3.30) is a stablemate of the top tip and a definite threat. She is a daughter of Lonhro on debut and has only had one public trial, which came at Warwick Farm last Tuesday when hitting the line hard to run a close up third. Looks a smart type and the big tick is that she responded when asked.

3 Flying Pierro (Bet Now: $10.00) is on debut here for the Chris Waller team. This bloke has only had one trial, which came late last week here when he got back and closed off really nicely under little riding when third to Britzel. Waller has always stated he wants to be a force in the juvenile ranks. I think he has a nice one here.

6 Epidemic (Bet Now: $2.20) is a Godolphin filly for James Cummings who landed some decent bets in a maiden on Cup Day at Randwick where she sat on speed under Andrew Atkins before being asked for the effort and she showed a lovely turn of foot, putting them away and winning quite well. Confident she can handle the class rise.

4 Equal Balance (Bet Now: $4.80) is a smart customer for Kurt Goldman who is putting together a nice little record. Really liked his way win here in the race mentioned above, with some help from a lovely ride from Innes Jr. Had the horse parked behind the speed before angling clear in plenty of time and finishing best. He can win again for sure.

1 Curdled (Bet Now: $6.50) is a few weeks between runs for the Peter Robl team since racing here three weeks back where she was first up and looked just in need of the run but ran well I thought behind Bon Amis. That form against the older horses does read well for this and with the run under the belt, she should be better off.

2 Doukhan (Bet Now: $4.40) is a horse just low flying at the moment for the Kris Lees team. Finished best in a slog to win over 2400m at Randwick on Cup Day before racing over 2700m at Canterbury where he got back and was under pressure a fair way out but he again surged hard and grabbed them late. Hard to knock a horse in winning form, plus he’s hard fit.

3 Imperial Aviator (Bet Now: $3.40) is a Waterhouse/Bott trained stayer who resumed over 2000m here a fortnight back and did a really good job in defeat behind Lord Kingsley. Was off the bit a fair way out, had to chase a genuine speed and really had every right to drop out but he stuck on well to only be grabbed late. Ticks plenty of boxes here.

4 Pygmy (Bet Now: $8.00) could be the big improver at odds. She had the flashing light on her after a fast finishing second to Egg Tart in the QLD Oaks but things haven’t really gone to plan since. But her run on Cup Day at Flemington behind Tahanee was full of merit considering the tempo/bias that day. Trial since behind Japonisme was good and though 1700m-2400m, she does have a touch of quality.

2 Volpe (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Danny Williams trained galloper who I think can go close here. He resumed in a Highway here a fortnight back and just looked in need of the run I felt behind Equal Balance. What I will say is that he was a tad unlucky and probably should have finished closer. Danny Williams, after a lean 9-10 months in Highways, has really fired subsequent to that time period and this bloke looks well placed.

3 Doctor Zed (Bet Now: $20.00) strung together a couple of really nice wins in the country for Morgan Butler before running an absolute shocker last time out at Ballina, but the track was near bottomless that day and he couldn’t pick his feet up. Much better suited on top of the ground and I know the stable has a decent opinion of him.

14 Mister Smartee (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Tas Morton trained youngster who won a maiden on his home track at Port Macquarie last time out. On paper he didn’t appear to beat much but the time was okay relative to the meeting and I liked the way he toughed it out. He was there to be beaten but he just wanted it and finished best. Harder here, but Morton doesn’t come to town for nothing, and he could have easily ran at Port earlier this week.

6 Sedanzer (Bet Now: $2.35) is a Waterhouse/Bott trained mare who landed some big bets when resuming here a fortnight back. She sat off a decent enough clip before Rachel King eased her to the outside and her last 150m was very good as she attacked the line with purpose to nab Slow Burn right on the peg. Can only improve off that so she’ll take some beating here.

5 Cosmic Engine (Bet Now: $8.00) was given a sweet steer by Blake Shinn to win first up at Canterbury before racing here a fortnight back where he tried very hard but was no match for the low flying Redouble and had to settle for third. He’s third up now, so he should be near hard fit, ready to go, and he does have the fitness edge on Sedanzer.

1 King Darci (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Tim Martin trained galloper who can be a bit hit and miss at times but he definitely has a decent engine underneath the hood and he can run well here. He ran three weeks back over 1300m here where he tried hard but just lacked the killer punch to go with them when fourth to Redouble. Up to 1500m looks ideal and he draws well.

You’d think only bad luck beats 4 Savapinski (Bet Now: $2.10). This mare has just been a revelation this prep for the Waterbott team, progressing from a Wyong Class One to an absolute spank job of high class mares in the Matriarch on Stakes Day at Flemington. The weight is the worry, but she maps to lead nicely, she’s tough and is in a real purple patch.

7 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $3.90) is absolutely flying this prep for Chris Waller. He comes through the November Topaz here a fortnight back where he had a relatively good run near the speed before being asked for the effort and he tried hard but clearly no match for a future Stakes horse in Interlocuter. Up to 2000m is the query, but if he runs it, he’ll go close.

3 Green Sweet (Bet Now: $10.00) is the most interesting runner on the program for mine. Gelding resuming for the Jean Dubois team after a three run Autumn prep, highlighted by a gritty win in the Albury Cup. Latest trial was in late September, so fitness levels are unknown but the stable can produce something like this and pull it off so I wouldn’t put the pen through him.

4 Cabeza De Vaca (Bet Now: $3.00 ODDS BOOST) is the safe play, but I don’t think he is a good thing. Things have fallen into place perfectly for him in both runs this prep, each resulting in wins, the latest over 1400m here a fortnight back when leading all the way. He’ll attempt to do something similar here and up to 1500m can only be beneficial.

9 Mister Sea Wolf (Bet Now: $5.50 ODDS BOOST) is the big watch. Former European stayer resuming for the Chris Waller camp for his Australian debut. Best form is over further, but he has trialled very nicely leading up to his fresh assignment, and the early market support suggests he will go very close to winning and making a statement.

7 Moher (Bet Now: $13.00 ODDS BOOST) is the king of the Rosehill 1500m with three wins and two placings from five starts at the track/distance. He comes back here in ripping form after getting the job done at Flemington on Stakes Day over 1400m in somewhat of a bunched finished but he chased hard and wanted the win. Maps super here, and he’ll look the winner at some stage.

12 Glenall (Bet Now: $4.60 ODDS BOOST) was outstanding in winning at this track/distance first up. His trial leading in, to be fair, was ordinary, but he looked to travel sweetly just off the pace. Peeled out and was under riding but he kept finding under Avdulla and surged hard to get the win. Second up syndrome is always the worry, but he has class and brilliance.

15 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $7.00 ODDS BOOST) a clear threat. Looked to have every chance in the race mentioned above a fortnight back when he got the split and dashed by Glenall just outgunned him and was too good. Can he turn the tables on that horse? Off that run I’d say no, but he has the race fitness edge, he’s third up, and he loves a track with give in it, so any rain is a big tick.

He’s a non winner but I want to include 1 Dothraki (Bet Now: $13.00 ODDS BOOST) in the numbers. He had a pretty strong Autumn/Winter prep without winning, but he ran well and placed in some strong races behind some quality types. Two trials leading in have been very good and in terms of stats for track/distance/ground/first up, it’s all ticks. The big negative is that his last win was October 2015.

6 Best Guess (Bet Now: $4.20) looked a near good thing on paper when racing here a fortnight back and that is how it panned out for punters with a lovely ride from Blake Shinn. He took bad luck out of the equation by going to the lead on this horse and from there, it was relatively painless as he won quite impressively. 1300m is a different pain barrier but he should be fine.

8 Machinegun Jubs (Bet Now: $5.00) is a ripping mare for the Angela Davies team. Really liked the way she knuckled down to win over 1200m here three weeks back. Zonk looked to have the race won but this mare shoved her way into clear air and surged hard the final 150m to nab Zonk on the line. Can only improve and draws to get a similar run, and a wet track won’t be a negative.

2 Perfect Dare (Bet Now: $13.00) is four weeks between runs for the Matty Dunn stable since racing over the 1050m at Doomben where he was really given no chance, sitting wide no cover on speed and eventually folding up to run last to Tarzan. Has run well in Sydney before and overall, this is a very winnable race on his best form.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Savapinski

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Rheingau

VALUE: Race Four Number 2 Volpe

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4

Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 3, 12, 15

Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 8, 14

$50 Investment= 50% of the dividend if successful

* Odds Correct at time of posting

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