2/10/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm

There are two ways to look at 10 Facile (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Either she is a $1.10 chance or she’s vulnerable first up. I am leaning towards the former. She has this lot covered. She resumes for Ryan/Alexiou, having not raced since the Reisling when a narrow second to Learning To Fly. Loved the way she went in a recent Rosehill trial and in terms of runs on the board, she has plenty on these.

4 Lost (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have a decent engine under the hood for James Cummings. She did more than enough on debut on the Kenso behind Nadal before going to Canterbury where she had a suck run in behind before angling clear and in a driving go, she finished best. She has the race fitness under the belt, which should hold her in good stead.

2 Flying Trapeze (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Trapeze Artist for Gary Portelli that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since June 17 at Rosehill when near the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat when close up behind Tutta La Vita. He’s had a good grounding for the return with a couple of trials and with an on speed pattern, he’ll give himself every chance.

5 Builit (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be favourite here IMO. Chris Waller trained four year old that has been quite good in two runs back, the latest over 1400m at Kembla where he got back in the run and made up solid headway late when third to Razors. That is two runs at 1400m to start the prep so the rise to 1600m is ideal. Hopefully the inside gate is used to advantage.

Back to the mile is a big positive for 6 Diabelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but the fact is he’s only won one race so him as favourite, I don’t get it. He can win, but he’s far too short. He ran over 1800m at Newcastle last time where I thought he was given every chance under Lloyd but he couldn’t quite finish it off, running a narrow second to Glad You Think So. Given the lack of depth, he can win…but he’s too short.

1 Spitfire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Matty Dale and deserves a crack in town. The gelding has won his past two, the first win coming at Wagga before going to Canberra where he had a suck run behind the speed before angling into clear air and finished best for an impressive win. Good test here in town but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

1 Arts… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) why isn’t she favourite? Stakes winning mare for Ed Cummings that won’t know herself in a race as weak as this. Just needed the run fresh at Rosehill behind Diamond Dealer before going to the Tibbie at Newcastle where she got back and while she was never a threat, she did make up some headway and wasn’t too bad in defeat. Hard fit now and getting to the mile, in well after the claim…gee she looks so well placed.

3 Oakfield Redgum (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should land near the front and prove hard to run down. She led throughout and gave them a spanking two back at Wyong before going to a Midway at Randwick where she led and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Satness. That form reference was franked on Saturday and with her racing style, she’ll give herself every chance.

5 Nullify (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. Matty Dale trained mare that ran in a strong race over 1300m at Hawkesbury last start where she got a fair way back in the run and did make up headway without threatening behind Zouologist. The win prior at Goulburn was pretty good and maps to do no work.

4 Yukon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a big price here I feel. Team Hawkes trained gelding that has raced at Saturday metro level his past two, both at Rosehill. Latest run was over 2400m when back and making up minor headway without threatening behind Olympic Gaze. This looks more his level, he’ll be strong late and is only fifth up, so I think he has more upside than most.

1 Chateaux Park (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing very well for Jason Coyle. He ran over 2100m here last time out and I think you can easily make a case to say that with clear air, he wins. Unfortunately he didn’t get clear air in the straight when Schiller was probing. Saves his best for the home track and with clear air this time around, he can take this out.

8 Golden Passport (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one with upside/progression compared to most. GaiBott trained stayer that has a good racing style and will give himself every chance. He ran over 2000m at Kembla last time when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a strong kick but was no match for a really nice horse, Medatsu. He has the right racing style and stable is flying.

4 Ahuriri (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Chris Waller trained filly that has been solid in two runs back from a spell. Latest run came at Newcastle on Cameron Day where she landed near the speed and tried her guts out when a close up third to Allapercanto. That was her first run in two months so with room for improvement, she rates highly.

1 Kapakiri (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets Blinkers back on but he’s had 11 chances to break the maiden so not sure you can back him to win with confidence, but he finds a very winnable maiden. He ran over the mile at Kembla last time and his run was outstanding given the race shape behind Princess Rayaa. If he’s within range on the turn, he’s good enough to win.

13 Sting In The Tail (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver and can pinch a first four spot. She debuted at the midweeks at Canterbury where she got back to near last in the run and made up ground without threatening behind Makarena. Like her up in trip, she’s got more upside than most and at big odds, I think she can pinch a first four spot.

5 Extremely Lucky (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, will love a fast run 1000m. He was plain at the trip fresh in the Show County behind Buenos Noches before going to 1100m a few weeks back at Rosehill where he got back to near last in the run and while he was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Red Card. Like him back to 1000m and on a firm deck, he runs well.

4 Spacewalk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality four year old for James Cummings that is first up. He resumes off a Stakes win, that coming at Randwick in the Bob Charley. Two trials under the belt have been quite good, he maps to do no work in the run and is the one with a bit of quality, upside and progression.

2 Holyfield (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of I Am Invincible for Annabel Neasham that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Eye Liner at Ipswich where he was at the end of a long prep and just looked a tired horse behind Lady Of Honour. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh and despite no trials under the belt, he has the quality to measure up.

3 Yasuke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Chris Waller trained four year old that resumed over 1400m on the Kenso where he was ridden pretty much like a barrier trial, sitting back near last, and was never really a factor behind Silvanito. The depth here is nowhere near as deep, he can settle much closer in the run and has a bit of quality when right.

2 Convincebility (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a nine start career for Kris Lees and commands respect. He comes back to 1400m after attempting to lead throughout over 1550m at Canterbury where he gave a strong kick from the front but couldn’t withstand the finale of River Snitty. Back in trip, good racing style, he appeals.

7 The Replicant (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Joe Pride trained gelding that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since August 9 over the mile here when wide no cover and feeling the pinch late behind Lolly Yeats. He does tend to race well on the fresh side and with a couple of trials under the belt, he can run an improved race.

13 Written In Code (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit on these if she’s ready to go. That is the question…is she ready to go? She hasn’t raced since the Brisbane Winter Carnival when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Red Card. Given a good break and with two trials under the belt, drawn to get decent cover, she’ll get a drag into the race and finish over the top.

1 Able Willie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a frustrating horse to follow right throughout his career but when right, he’s a very nice horse. The ride from Nash to win last time on the Kenso was a beauty, not going around a horse, sticking the fence and drove hard late to win impressively. That was his first run in nearly two months so if he can improve off that into this, he’s in with a shout.

3 Sir Ravanelli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented country galloper for Terry Evans that resumes. He hasn’t raced since the Country Championships Final when struggling on the bog behind Sizzle Minizzle. Trialled up super around a month ago on the home track at Tuncurry and he is a horse who can sprint very well fresh. One for exotics.

BEST BET: Race One Number 10 Facile

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 13 Written In Code

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Yukon

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8, 13

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 8

Leg Four: 13

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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