The premier raceday in Newcastle will be held on Wednesday- Day One of the Newcastle Cup Carnival, Cameron Handicap Day. The feature race is the $150,000 Group lll Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap (1500m), with Kotinki Park expected to keep the Waterhouse/Rawiller juggernaut rolling on.
The other two highlight events are the $45,000 Hurricane Stakes (900m), an absolue dash for cash. No doubt the fireworks will be lit as soon as the gates open. The second support race is the $175,000 Group lll Coca-Cola Spring Stakes (1600m), with the superstar Proisir expected to make it three wins from as many starts. Apart from these three events, the meeting is surprisingly very poor.
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Race One: Executive Inn Newcastle Maiden 900m Form Guide
Back Me: Two horse race between Two Blue and Hidden Warrior. I think the quinella is the safe bet here, but if you want value, go with Two Blue, only because he has the barrier advantage.
Don’t Back Me: Apart from the top two tips, there isn’t much to get excited about here.
Big Danger: Hidden Warrior was beaten a neck on debut by Pierro, then beaten a neck in the Magic Millions at Wyong behind Hoss Amor, before finishing sixth behind Amorino at Rosehill. That form would get him home here, but the barrier (five) at this tricky start is a concern in terms of him winning.
Roughie: She’s Angelic did far too much work on debut behind Magic June at Scone. Barrier one here, should get a soft run behind the speed, can finish in the top four. Throw her in the exotics.
$250 Two Blue Free Bet
Race Two: Hunters Basketball Handicap (C1) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: The Oakfield’s have a great record on feature racedays at Newcastle and they are always heavily backed. I expect that to continue here with Oakfield Spirit. Obviously injury plagued given he is a seven-year-old and has only raced six times, but he has talent if they have persevered. You go through his form and it’s superb. On two occasions he wasn’t far away from Torio’s Quest and on another occasion he finished behind city winner Admiral’s Cup. Today he is in a Class One, pumper is riding, horse has trialled nicely, get on.
Don’t Back Me: I didn’t mind the debut win of Spanish Matador, but he is taking on a couple of nice types here and he has drawn the carpark. McDonald will need to be at his brilliant best.
Danger: Been waiting for Brown Doubt to resume and he does here. I’ve liked him since day one. He has plenty of ability, but his barrier manners definitely cost him at least a win in his two defeats from three career starts in the Autumn. The booking of Bowman is a positive lead that the stable must be confident.
Roughie: Not sure what Florabella beat here last start to break the maiden status, but on face value, it was impressive. She has no weight on her back and has a fitness edge on her main rivals.
$250 Oakfield Spirit Free Bet
Race Three: Prime 7 Has The X-Factor Maiden 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll be very surprised if the winner doesn’t come from the top two. Slight leaning towards Wailea Bay, because he was outstanding in defeat last start. Sat three and four wide with no cover for the entire race, yet stuck on third, beaten a half length.
Don’t Back Me: Anything to beat the top two. They are lengths ahead on this lot.
Big Danger: Deralon was pestered in the lead in the same race as Wailea Bay and kicked, and kicked, and kicked hard to win, only to lose the race on protest after replays showing the horse veering outwards and causing interference to the original runner up. Nash will send this bloke to the lead and the bigger track, as well as the 1500m, look perfect.
Roughie: Street Justice copped more hits last start than the bloke that was up against Daniel Geale the other week. Sat wide, had no luck, forgive and forget. Back to 1500m, on a bigger track, blinkers are off, wide barrier suits, he can run a cheeky race at odds, especially if he reproduces his run at Goulburn.
$250 Wailea Bay Free Bet
Race Four: Nsw Colour Tv Handicap (C1) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Very keen on Cameo. Backed him first up here and he was jus fair, but he clicked into gear and recorded a most impressive win during the carnval at Wyong. The quick rise to the mile looks ideal and the Darley camp is on cloud nine after providing the quinella of the Golden Rose last weekend. She looks hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Knockfin Road has raced very well in three career runs at Goulburn and got the breakthrough win last start. However, this is a big rise in terms of depth and he may get found out here.
Big Danger: Slivovitz has caught the eye in two runs this time in, both here at Newcastle. Wasn’t far behind them first up before settling midfield second up and winding up strongly late. I don’t think the weight will be an issue and he looks a major player.
Roughie: Dubai Dusk might be out of his depth, but he was the blackbooker of the meeting at Muswellbrook last start where he sat near last and powered home late to just miss. The mile looks perfect and if they go mad in front, this one might flash home and grab them.
$250 Cameo Free Bet
Race Five: Hurricane Stakes 900m Form Guide
Back Me: Cracking race. Sticking with the fastest horse in Newcastle, Social Rank. I think he’ll have enough speed to cross the horses drawn inside him and be too good. Set a fast speed in the Starlight at Rosehill first up and weakened late. He is just about unbeatable at the 900m start here and he’ll give a great sight.
Don’t Back Me: On class, Uate has about 10 lengths on these. But who knows how well he is going. Trials haven’t been flash and I am happy to pass him.
Big Danger: Nash Rambler is the horse that’ll get the peach run from the inside barrier. Very consistent mare who is never far away and she’ll be very strong at the end of the 900m.
Roughie: Ballymorough has plenty of experience at the track/distance. He is an old bugger who give 110% and although he probably can’t run a very hard 900m, he always whacks away and may bob up in the first four.
$250 Social Rank Free Bet
Race Six: Coca-Cola Spring Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Proisir is a star and he’ll win this. Soft kill on debut at Hawkesbury but he showed he has the x-factor with a dominant all-the-way victory at Rosehill, beating a more than handy field. Nash will either lead or take a sit behind the stablemate Sumarand. Either way, he’ll get the perfect run and win.
Don’t Back Me: It’d be silly to back anything to beat the top tip.
Big Danger: Proverb was the eye-catcher of the day at Warwick Farm just over two weeks ago. He sat last, had nowhere to go, Robl stuck to the fence riding for luck, he got it, the gelding charged home and just missed catching stablemate Tatra in a close finish. Will he get the pace on to run on again? Perhaps not, but it’s hard to ignore that effort.
Roughie: I think it was a case of second up syndrom for Limes in the same race mentioned above. He is a Group l placegetter behind Pierro and if he found that sort of form, he could be in the money.
$250 Proisir Free Bet
Race Seven: Patinack Farm Cameron Handicap 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m all over Kontiki Park. At times, he was inconsistent, but this time in he has told me he is a racehorse now and wants to give plenty each time. Superb first up win at Rosehill before going to Warwick Farm in the Tramway and after settling well back, he peeled out wide and unwound a powerful finish for second, beaten a long neck by Tagus. He meets Tagus one kilo better at the weights and has a better barrier. He should just about win.
Don’t Back Me: Tagus is a more than capable galloper, but he isn’t the type of horse that can put successive wins on the board, and to put that beside the factors that are against him that were mentioned above, it’d be a big effort he was to win.
Big Danger: Big fan of Lightinthenite. Talented and John O’Shea has realised that he needs his races best. I like the fact he is first up here because the stable must be confident, otherwise they would have put him in a Saturday race.
Roughie: Every other galloper except Guderian could fill a place without surprising me. Very hard race behind Kontiki Park.
$250 Kontiki Park Free Bet
Race Eight: Westfield Kotara Fashion Handicap (65) 2300m Form Guide
Back Me: Vader was a subject of a betting plunge during the Wyong Carnival and it went astray, but he was desperately unlucky. He was put to sleep on the fence, before the 1000m mark where Kathy got one off and was awaiting a run. It emerged at the 250m and he sprinted quickly, but in the end was nosed out by Knowing Me, who had all the momentum. Vader meets that horse 1.5kg better at the weights for a nose defeat. He’ll turn the tables.
Don’t Back Me: Knowing Me for the reasons mentioned above. Nice type, has ability, but he has plenty against him in order to beat Vader.
Big Danger: Zippy Zariz is a tough campaigner from Taree for trainer Bindi Cheers. This one finished fourth behind Falklands at Port Macquarie last start after sitting last. That form is very good given Falklands, prior to his win at Port, finished second to the above average grey Studio at Canterury. The formlines for Zippy Zariz are solid and he could settle closer thanks to the nice draw.
Roughie: Pesaro does have ability, because he contested the Victorian Derby last year and wasn’t disgraced. Hasn’t quite gone on with it, but this is the first time he has stepped out to a trip since the Derby. He could make a form turnaround without surprising me.
$250 Vader Free Bet
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