Racing in Brisbane returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday for an eight race program, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed Keith Noud Handicap (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:50) : Bob Gregg 60th Birthday Handicap 2200m:
Back Me: 1 Emerald City (Bet Now: $1.95) just picks himself here I think. He has won his last three starts, including a 2400m win here two back with two Doomben wins either side. Those races have seen him beat stronger fields than what he faces here, so on that basis, even with the weight…I’d be shocked if he got rolled. It would take big improvement from a rival to knock him off I think.
Big Danger: 3 Kaiser Franz (Bet Now: $3.40) could be the sharp improver here. He ran sixth to Emerald City last time out but I think due to the barrier, he was forced to sit a touch too closer to the tempo. He is better when he sits back in the ruck and is allowed to go through his gears with momentum. Eagle Farm will help that happen, and if he can sit off them and come wide, having the last say, he can turn the tables.
Long Shot: 5 Meteorologist (Bet Now: $8.50) ran over 1800m at the Gold Coast on Cup Day where he got back in the run and just stayed there really on a very shifty track when fourth to Idle Situation. Star prior he ran well behind Saga Miss, who is one of the form gallopers in Queensland at the moment. Up in trip should suit, as should the return to a bigger track, which is what Eagle Farm provides.
Race Two (13:27) : Golden Finch Lawns Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: Barely any trial form, so I’ll go with the youngsters that have had previous stable betting confidence. 4 You Make Me Smile (Bet Now: $4.60) is a So You Think on debut for Steve O’Dea. Hasn’t trialled publicly but the breeding suggests he’ll be a good given the mum is a Stakes winner from a few years ago and she came to hand early. Stable had a few nominated but they run this sole runner.
Big Danger: 5 Catalina Miss (Bet Now: $4.60) debuted over 1100m at Doomben a fortnight back where she showed super early toe to lead comfortably and for the most part, she looked the winner but was nabbed near the peg by Champ Elect. That followed just a fair trial, so how strong that form is I’m not sure, but she has race experience on her side.
Long Shot: 11 Sista Act (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Falvelon filly that debuts for the Liam Birchely stable. No trials to go, and breeding doesn’t fill me with much confidence, but the stable have produced a couple of handy types in terms of juveniles this season and Lloyd rides, so she has a few things going for her.
Race Three (14:02) : LUCRF Super Supports Jockeys Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Sir Donald (Bet Now: $3.50) is a nippy Toowoomba customer trained by Michael Nolan who took care of an average bunch at Ipswich last time out, jumping cleanly to lead and giving nothing else a look in. If this race was further, I wouldn’t include him, but 1000m does suit his free wheeling racing pattern and I am happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 1 Sundance (Bet Now: $3.90) is a class animal for Toby Edmonds who resumed at the midweeks at Doomben over 1050m and absolutely bolted up after showing super gate speed to lead. He won’t get it easy in front, which is the worry because when he hasn’t led, he has failed. But keep in mind he contested some classy races during the Winter Carnival, something that a majority of these haven’t done.
Long Shot: 2 Crack Me Up (Bet Now: $11.00) is a handy gelding that resumes for Liam Birchley. He gradually improved during the Winter Carnival and ended up contesting the J J Atkins where he was okay behind Sacred Elixir. 1000m is short of his best, but they will go hard in front here, so he should get his chance to get back and ambush late.
Race Four (14:37) : Epoca Constructions Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 6 Beaudacious (Bet Now: $9.00) looked home when racing over 1200m here four weeks weeks back at the big odds and I was in the queue, only to be nabbed in the last stride by the in form Thunder Raider. The long Eagle Farm straight beat her, as did 1200m I suspect so back to 1000m is perfect. One of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Nicconi Leggera (Bet Now: $4.20) has been given a seven week freshen up since racing over 1200m at Doomben where she went hard in front and to her credit she fought on strongly but was nabbed late by Thunder Raider, who has franked the form by running a couple of rippers since. Freshen up, back to 1000m…I can see her being explosive here. Last 50m will test I think.
Long Shot: All you can do is win and that is what 7 Ice Frost (Bet Now: $5.00) has done, winning two from two, both over 1000m at Ipswich and both occasions she has run sizzling final sectionals. The 1000m at Eagle Farm should suit her jump and run racing style, she’s hard fit and has upside. Better class of horse flesh here but I can’t ignore her here.
Race Five (15:13) : Nationals Jockeys Trust Handicap (2MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Sheiswhatsheis (Bet Now: $7.00) copped pressure in front when racing over this track/distance three weeks back where he showed pretty good fight in the straight but was no match for stablemate Notonyourlife and had to settle for third. Better suited here I think, and third up now, she should be ready fitness wise. Hard to beat but she can’t receive too much heat up in front.
Big Danger: 7 In His Stride (Bet Now: $5.50) ran over this track/distance last time out and worked home strongly late in the piece when second to Primal Flight. Gets in really well at the weights and the form around the horse reads very well for a race of this class. Should get every chance from the good draw here, Orman rides, hard fit, in form…rates highly.
Long Shot: 11 More Than Money (Bet Now: $34.00) has been given a month freshen up since resuming at the Gold Coast over 1200m where he got back in the run and finished off strongly late in the piece to run a close up second. I think his best racing is when he is produced fresh, he draws gate one, gets the claim for Tiff Brooker…and at $34, I could certainly entertain him each way.
Race Six (15:48) : Dalton Consulting Engineers Plate (Class 3) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Havasay (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented three year old who resumes here for Liam Birchley. He contested some high class races during the Winter Carnival and while he was outclassed he did run okay. No trials leading in, but there is a touch of class and quality about him and he has to be respected.
Long Shot: 15 Desert Man (Bet Now: $8.00) was a good thing beaten when resuming as a heavily backed favourite behind Frequendly before racing here over this distance and perhaps had the second up syndrome behind Primal Flight. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise, draws a soft gate and Colless sticks. Ready to bounce back hard here.
Long Shot: 16 My Girl Hayley (Bet Now: $8.00) was first up off a decent break when resuming in a similar race at Doomben a fortnight back where she sat on speed and did a power of work yet drew clear late and was very strong to the line in a super performance. Fancourt stays on and her claim will come in handy given the wide gate. In saying that, I think she can get the ideal drag over from Fiery Heights, then press forward to lead and take some catching.
Race Seven (16:28) : UBET Keith Noud Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Too Good To Refuse (Bet Now: $3.80) resumed a fortnight back over 1110m at Doomben when settling near last in the run on a day where making up ground was hard to do, but he just savaged the line to run second to the in form and hard fit Prompt Return. He showed really good promise in the Winter, including a fast finishing fifth to Group l performer Counterattack. That reads very well for a race of this class.
Big Danger: 3 Coolring (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented grey for Bjorn Baker who comes here with upside in a really tough race to sort out. He ran over 1100m at Randwick on Cup Day where he sat on a hot speed and fought on strongly when a close up fourth to the well above average sprinter Kaepernick. He dominated when sent this part of the world in the Winter, and now seems the right time to tackle it once again.
Long Shot: They will go hard in front, so a horse like 6 Sony Legend (Bet Now: $11.00) comes into play. His best racing is when he is produced fresh so I’m not sure what upside he has got left, but he is hard fit and up and running. He ran behind Prompt Return in that race mentioned above and finished his race off well. Better suited at Eagle Farm and will be strong late.
Race Eight (17:08) : Heinrich Racing Plate (Class 6) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Better Land (Bet Now: $3.10) was an impressive first up winner over 1200m here before racing at Doomben a fortnight back where he did a remarkable job to run second to Brotherly Secret after being hopeless out of the gates and giving himself no chance at all yet still savaged the line to run second. With a cleaner getaway here, he should go awfully close.
Big Danger: 13 Man Of His Word (Bet Now: $3.60) worked home well two back at Randwick behind Invinzabeel before running over this track/distance three weeks ago where he was tardy to begin with and got back to last in the run, and with the tempo the way it was, he had no hope, so he did a pretty good job to finish as close as he did. He is hard to trust given his racing pattern, but he can certainly win if things go his way.
Long Shot: 15 Col ‘N’ Lil (Bet Now: $21.00) could be the sharp improver here at a price. She carried a bit of weight when resuming against her own sex and stuck on pretty well behind the in form mare Notonyourlife. Really good record here. Just needs to overcome the gate to be a threat.
Race Nine (17:48) : Gallopers Sports Club Handicap (85) 1600m:
Back Me: 16 Saga Miss (Bet Now: $6.50) ran over 1800m three weeks back where she was a heavily backed favourite but for the most part, she never looked likely until the final 250m when you could sense she was about to burst through, and when she did, she exploded and won quite convincingly. Was due to run seven days later over 2000m but the stable has freshened her up ad she’ll love the hard run mile here. The one to beat.
Big Danger: Gee if you backed 10 Lord Coconuts (Bet Now: $5.00) at Doomben a fortnight back, it was just a horror show. The horse had plenty to offer and looked to going like the winner on the turn, but nothing went right for Fradd and the horse just had no chance to let down properly and show his true colours. Surely he’ll get clear air on the bigger track, which saw him well the start prior. He can bounce back in a big way here.
Long Shot: 17 Reckless Abandon (Bet Now: $18.00) let me down badly when racing here a fortnight back. I thought he was an each way play and there was market support for him during the day. But it amounted to nothing as he sat back in the run and just stayed there behind Emphasis. I think he can improve off that, but this really is D-Day for him in my opinion. Otherwise he can warm the pine.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 9 Better Land
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Emerald City
VALUE: Race Six Number 10 Havasay
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 6, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Leg Three: 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15
Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 17
$50 Investment= 2.17% of the dividend if successful
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