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The Adelaide Racing Carnival concludes this Saturday at Morphettville with the time honoured Goodwood (1200m) the feature. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (12:31) Port Adelaide Cup 2500m

Back Me

Couldn’t put a line through any of these. I think the query and the one I’ll gamble on is 3 Exalted Lightning (Bet Now: $7.00), who is first up here. Fresh at 2500m is a task, but Grrant Young doesn’t mind doing things differently. This horse was one of the real finds during the Summer and early part of the Autumn, finishing the prep with a gutsy sixth in the Adelaide Cup. He’s a proven stayer who will love a slog.

Danger

4 Yogi (Bet Now: $1.70) isn’t the most reliable horse in terms of a winning strike rate, but his run in the Warrnambool Cup was enormous. Just got a touch too far back in the run but he absolutely savaged the line to just miss out on the win when a narrow second to Gallic Chieftain. 2500m here looks ideal and he should be hard fit.

Long Shot

6 Delos (Bet Now: $20.00) looks the knockout. Three year old for the Waterbott team who comes here off the back of a run in the St Leger at Flemington where he was okay without being great behind stablemate Runaway. He is at his best when he is on speed and rolls along so if that eventuates, he’ll give a stack of cheek.

Race 2. (13:06) National Stakes 1200m

Back Me

I’ve underestimated 1 Tequila Time (Bet Now: $2.45) all prep but I’ll jump on now. We all thought his GF was last week when winning the Sires, when sitting on speed and proving far too good and tough for his rivals. The fact he backs up tells me has clearly done well since Saturday and back to 1200m no issue, and given his record, he’s beautifully suited at set weights.

Danger

5 Heaven’s Deal (Bet Now: $12.00) is the unbeaten filly and just how good she is we don’t know just yet. Two starts for two wins, the latest coming a fortnight back in the Queen Adelaide when sitting on speed and despite getting the wobbles late clung on to get the win. 1200m is a risk, but hard to know how good she is until she’s beaten.

Long Shot

10 Be My Star (Bet Now: $7.00) could potentially be the best horse to come from this race. Tony McEvoy trains this filly for Qatar Bloodstock who debuted in a 1000m maiden at Balaklava where she absolutely bolted in under Jamie Kah, winning by over three lengths and smashing the clock relative to the meeting. Confident she’ll measure up.

Race 3. (13:46) SA Fillies Classic 2500m

Back Me

She’s been frustrating this time in but out an ideal trip and back to her own age/sex, I think 5 Teodora (Bet Now: $13.00) can run really well. Did a power of work on the bog at Bendigo over 2200m last time out in what turned out to be a real slog. She fought really hard under Lane but just found Oh Baby too good on the line. Up to 2500m and firmer footing are big ticks.

Danger

1 Miss Admiration (Bet Now: $2.60) proved that her ATC Oaks placing was no fluke with a gutsy third in the SA Oaks behind Sopressa. She was very one paced to the line but she toughed it out strongly to finish a close up third. 2500m looks absolutely ideal for her and if it’s a true 2500m test, she’s the girl you want to be on.

Long Shot

10 Absolution (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Matt Cumani trained filly who should relish the rise to 2500m. She won her maiden last time out over the 1850m at Kyneton where she dug in deep when challenged and eventually edged away late. She is the one with upside and the way she races, I don’t think 2500m will be an issue.

Race 4. (14:26) Centaurea Stakes 2000m

Back Me

Confident that 1 Savapinski (Bet Now: $2.70) can bounce back into the winners list. Thought Clark rode her a treat last time out in the Queen of The South but condition just gave way late when a close up fourth to French Emotion. Up to 2000m looks perfect for her, she’s third up, should control things on speed and take some beating.

Danger

2 Tahanee (Bet Now: $3.30) looks ready too, like Savapinski. She beat the mare home in the Queen Of The South and it was only the bob of the head that separated her and French Emotion. Did run well in the Matriarch in the Spring behind Savapinski. Think there is more upside with the Waterott mare, but this girl does have the Weir polish.

Long Shot

6 Have Another Glass (Bet Now: $14.00) looks set for this race and I think she can run well. Queen Of The South run was very good I thought, tucked in behind the speed before finishing off well without really threatening, though she was only 1.9L from French Emotion. Ran well in this race last year and while she is not going as well this year compared to last, I think she can run well.

Race 5. (15:06) R A Lee Stakes 1600m

Back Me

2 Calderon (Bet Now: $20.00) looks a great each way gamble for mine. Was on him a fortnight back at this track/distance but had no hope of winning in the run given he was wide no cover and the pace was a crawl, so those on speed were advantaged. Should be a more genuine tempo this time around, he’s fitter and with cover, I think he’ll take some beating.

Danger

1 Lite’n In My Veins (Bet Now: $4.35) is racing in near career best form for Ciaron Maher. Really dug deep to win at this track two weeks ago, sitting outside a slow speed before being clicked up for the big effort and finding plenty late when challenged to score a narrow but impressive win. That was his first run since Adelaide Cup Day so there should be room to improve.

Long Shot

12 Arkham Knight (Bet Now: $19.00) is a John Macmillan trained gelding who bounced back to winning ways during the Warrnambool Carnival. Punters were keen to step in and they got it spot on as he produced a lovely finale under Craig Williams to score. That run and win should bring him right on for this harder assignment.

Race 6. (15:46) Proud Miss Stakes 1200m

Back Me

17 Leather’n’Lace (Bet Now: $5.50) clearly on top. Plenty were keen on her when she resumed three weeks back at Caulfield but just had too much to do from the back in what was an enormous effort I thought when third to stablemate Grey Shadow. Gets really good weight relief this time around and a fast run 1200m is a big tick.

Danger

5 One More Daisy (Bet Now: $16.00) was enormous in the McKay behind Sprightly Lass. Sprightly Lass was three wide, this girl was four and five wide throughout and I thought she did a remarkable job to get as close as she did to the Hawkes mare. This girl will have no issue with 1200m and off last start, she has to be a leading chance.

Long Shot

8 Mamzelle Tess (Bet Now: $35.00) has been up a fair while for the Corstens team but is racing really well. Comes through the Creativity race at Caulfield three weeks ago where she settled off the speed and tried hard in the straight but just had no answers for the turn of foot produced by the winner. Suited back in trip, hard fit and in form.

Race 7. (16:26) Darley Goodwood 1200m

Back Me

The potential is certainly here for 1 Vega Magic (Bet Now: $3.20) to make a big statement. He could well blow this field away, assert himself at the top of the Everest betting and secure a slot. It all went pear shaped in the Spring from the Everest onwards. Probably should have won the race had it not been for a Craig Williams slaughter and then wasn’t himself in the Manikato and Darley Classic. Been given a good break and his trials/jump outs have been outstanding.

Danger

5 Viddora (Bet Now: $7.00) is a definite threat and the market says she’s ready. This mare resumed in the Irwin a month back and there are some who were saying she was disappointing behind Dainty Tess. Yes, missed the kick and from there nothing really went right, but she still attacked the line well enough I thought given she was only properly clear 100m out. Better luck here and I’m confident she can bounce back and go close.

Long Shot

I’m very wary of 6 Voodoo Lad (Bet Now: $9.00). He’s a classy animal for Darren Weir that hasn’t raced since the Moir where he was one of several unlucky runners in the race behind She Will Reign. Has had his injury troubles but resumes in a Group l which tells me they are keen on him running well, and from all reports he worked very well last week at Terang.

Race 8. (17:06) Chalk Hill Handicap (75) 1200m

Back Me

9 Disgraceful (Bet Now: $8.00) is the most interesting runner for the entire Carnival IMHO. Former Chris Waller galloper that was originally sent to Travsi Doudle but is now with Will Clarken, and readers will know I rate this guy as the best in Australia at taking over tried horses and improving them. This horse comes here with a lovely trial under the belt, over a year between runs, but gee he’s a big watch.

Danger

21 Via Balciano (Bet Now: $9.50) has to be given another chance. Resumed four weeks back over 1100m here where he got back off the pace but once he got the splits, he loomed large, but just ran out of puff late when fifth to Split Lip. Looks suited big time up to 1200m and if he’s fit enough, he’s good enough to beat these.

Long Shot

7 Bord De Gain (Bet Now: $15.00) is a definite threat. Kav trains this gelding who is five weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he got back in the run and finished off with real purpose to run a close up fifth to Manuel, who has really gone on with it since. Fresh at 1200m, he looks well placed.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Savapinski

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Vega Magic

VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Disgraceful

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 9, 12

Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 8, 17

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 2, 7, 9, 21

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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