19/2/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Flemington on Saturday for Black Caviar Lightning Day, with the feature attracting a high class field. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Black Caviar Lightning Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes

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Chris Waller is starting to fire with his Melbourne stable, having good success bringing them down from Sydney, and I think that continues with 5 Crystal Pegasus (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS). Lovely ride from J Mac saw him win at Rosehill three weeks ago over 2000m in a strong effort. The form out of that was rubbish last Saturday, but I do feel he’s got upside/progression compared to most of these.

11 Tycoon Bec (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) looks to be back on track. Jury was out on her earlier in the campaign but her last start effort at Flemington was good, closing off nicely from off the speed to finish a close up fourth to Look Closely. That run at the trip should toughen her up for this assignment and her recent trial was encouraging.

If you can catch 4 Guizot (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS), you’re a chance to pick up Usain Bolt. Such a frustrating horse from a punters perspective but the horse is actually flying. Just got into a tricky spot from gate one behind Desert Icon but was very good late. The way he’s racing, 2000m should be fine and is a key threat.

5 Tuvalu (Bet Now: $1.85 TOP ODDS) is a progressive animal for Lindsey Smith that comes to town off the back of a dominant win fresh at Warrnambool where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted, beating Zoltan, who won impressively next start, so the form reads well and you’d assume blacktype is on the agenda for this horse should he win here.

2 Zoltan (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for Symon Wilde since a strong win over this trip at The Valley, helped by a lovely rail hugging steer from Meech, where the other riders wanted to steer out, she stayed in and that won her the race. He’s lightly raced with upside and is a last start winner, so he’s got to be respected.

4 Scarlet Tufty (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS) might want one more but I want to keep tabs on her. Her early runs in Australia do remind me a bit of Floating Artist. He had shown not a great deal early on but then jumped out of the ground. Not saying she’ll reach that level but she has a similar profile and does have the Maher/Eustace polish. Not dismissing her.

I am hoping that a face value ugly win from 5 Yonce (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) last time will ensure she won’t be silly short. If that is indeed the case, she’s a great bet. The ugly win came at Caulfield and I am putting it down to Caulfield. She’s a big track horse, as seen at Sandown where she spanked them. 1600m at Flemington looks such an ideal recipe for her and I think she’ll make a mess of them.

7 Groovy Kinda Love (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) should appreciate the rise to the mile. Ran over 1400m at Caulfield a fortnight back where she got a mile out of her ground and was never a factor but was good late behind Takissacod. She is a talented mare and the rise to the mile looks ideal.

3 Amica (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is suited back in trip on a firmer deck. I want to be forgiving of her last start effort at Rosehill given she was at 2000m and on a somewhat shifty track, so forget she went around. Prior effort in the Belle Of The Turf does read quite well for what is, overall, a thin 78.

Team Snowden won last Saturday with a progressive juvenile. Can lightning strike twice with 10 Miss Hellfire (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS)? She had her last run in the Magic Millions behind Coolangatta and I just think the seven day back up didn’t suit her at all. Fresh legs with the right form for an astute camp, she’ll take beating.

IMO, the Blue Diamond Preview/Prelude form in all four races is suspect, so tread carefully into this. But, the debut of 12 Waltz On By (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) behind Miss Roseiano was quite good after covering a fair bit of real estate. Stable won the race last year and they get J Kah on board.

3 Renosu (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) deserves another chance. Something had to be wrong with him last start at Caulfield. He was as short as around $2.20 before blowing out big time, ending up starting around $4 and he was the first horse beat. His Spring form would see him likely win. Just want to see what the market does.

The habit of wanting to lay in under pressure is still there for 5 Barb Raider (Bet Now: $4.20) but I think even allowing for that, she can resume a winner. She had a near faultless opening prep. They tried to stretch her out to an Oaks but after a weak finale in the Wakeful, she was spelled. Didn’t want to run straight in a recent Cranbourne trial win but still moved nicely and she brings class.

1 Cardigan Queen (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to be a talented filly that has returned in good order. Market didn’t want her when she resumed at Sandown at the midweeks but under a lovely ride from Cartwright, she had a suck run and finished best to score. That was her first run since July so you’d like to think there is plenty of room for improvement.

Good test here for 3 Rioyuki (Bet Now: $7.50) but with race fitness and winning form, she deserves a crack. Lovely ride from Lane saw her win three weeks ago at The Valley, saving ground nearer the inside and driving hard late to win. There is depth to this event, but she’s hard fit and in form.

I’m really keen here on 1 Captivant (Bet Now: $6.00). Team Snowden trained colt that resumed in the Eskimo Prince at Randwick where he had 60kg to carry on a shifty track over 1200m. Ordinary set up and on paper, the run was fair, but breaking down the splits, his run was very good. Much better set up this time around and last time he was on dry ground in Melbourne, he pushed Anamoe all the way in the Caulfield Guineas. That form is A1 for here.

2 Forgot You (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quality colt for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumes. He hasn’t raced since the Spring where he raced so well at a high level, ending the prep with a game effort in the Derby. Showed zip to win a recent Cranbourne trial and I say he’s forward enough to run well here fresh.

10 Linas Legend (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Danny O’Brien trained three year old that was met with market support fresh in the Manfred two weeks ago and he tried hard but the race shape just didn’t quite work out for him. Still, good in defeat behind Generation. Fitter and up to 1400m, he is a knockout chance.

Gee I think 2 Eduardo (Bet Now: $4.60) is here to run a massive race. His best chance at Group l glory against the big boys is over a short course, and this is one of those races. I think Joe Pride knows that too because he has looked outstanding in a couple of trial wins and is an absolute bomb when produced fresh. Straight record isn’t flash, but he’s a different/better horse now.

1 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $2.40) won this race last year and I think it’s going to take a near career PB from a rival to beat him. He’s the best sprinter in the country and official ratings has him as the best in the world over a sprint trip. He’s looked brilliant, as always, in trials/jumpouts, but the big tick this time in is how well he’s relaxing. He’s harnessing his energy much better.

3 Masked Crusader (Bet Now: $8.50) has eyes on the Newmarket but if they overdo it in front, he can blouse them late. The jury is out IMO whether he 100% belongs at this level and this will be a defining prep to answer that question. Look for him to be run off his legs early and warm to the task late with an eye towards the Newmarket.

8 Mr Brightside (Bet Now: $4.60) is a beauty for Team Hayes. He came a long way in a short space of time in the Spring, which ended with an outstanding effort in the Cantala. He’s being aimed towards the All Star Mile. A recent jumpout was nothing flash, but he’s a proper race day horse.

2 Junipal (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained gelding that resumes and I think can sprint well fresh. He hasn’t been seen in nearly 12 months, having not raced since the George Ryder when down the track behind Think It Over. Loved the way he closed off in a recent Cranbourne trial but the market will tell you if he’s ready.

I concede that 1 Elephant (Bet Now: $5.00) is a good horse…is he top shelf? IMO, no, he’s not. But I think he’s good enough to run well here fresh with an eye towards the All Star Mile. He came of age when he crossed the ditch in the Spring and is a popular horse down under. His recent Ellerslie trial was okay without being great and the winner of the trial was plain in a weak Benchmark 65, so that is a concern, but market will be the real guide.

3 Pioneer River (Bet Now: $5.50) is a straight track specialist and with strong form lines, I am leaning his way in the get out. Four weeks between runs since racing at The Valley where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind a flying In The Boat. Saves his best for this course and gets in well after the claim.

I’ll take a chance in including 8 Gold Spark (Bet Now: $23.00). Lightly raced gelding for Nick Ryan that resumes, having not raced since July when a sharp winner at Caulfield in what was a pretty strong 78 over 1100m. His recent efforts have been over short course trips so 1200m fresh here I find interesting but a recent trial in very fast time at Cranbourne behind Profiteer should give him a good grounding.

7 Irish Songs (Bet Now: $23.00) is big odds here I feel. His record down the straight does read quite well and if you look through his form in recent times, he was narrowly beaten in a Kosciuszko and Goulburn Cup, prior he was far from disgraced behind Quantico. I think you could easily have something small on him each way and is a must include for the Quaddie.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Yonce

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Crystal Pegasus

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 10 Miss Hellfire

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 9

Leg Four: 3, 7, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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