A strong card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed Winter Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:10pm) : Cohort Global Handicap (80) 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: No reason why Soviet Courage (Best Odds: $3.00) can’t make it three wins on the bounce. He was given an absolute peach ride from Schofield last time out over this track/distance, and It was the ride that won the horse the race, beating home the Big Danger narrowly, but safely held that horse on the line. They look the two horses to beat, and I think the result will stay the same.
Big Danger: Der Meister (Best Odds: $3.25) ran third at bolters odds two back here behind Maurus, then started much shorter in betting and it was almost justified, but he couldn’t quite get past Soviet Courage and had to settle for a half length second. I don’t think he can turn the tables of Soviet Courage, but he should run well again, and the stable is in a real purple patch.
Roughie: Space (Best Odds: $21.00) was well backed at odds to win that race mentioned above with Soviet Courage and Der Meister, but he couldn’t really finish the race off in what was a real slog to the line. I think the small field will really suit him, he can get through the going okay and he does get a weight pull on the two horses above him.
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Race Two (12:45pm) : Ladbrokes.com.au Handicap (74) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Francesco (Best Odds: $5.00) here. This son of Wanted could not have been any more impressive when resuming at Kembla Grange a couple of weeks back, coming from the back and wide to charge home and win under no real pressure from Blake Shinn. Rewind 14-15 months and he was running alongside Earthquake, who at the time was one of the best up and comers in Australia. Loved what I saw first up and I am confident he can get the job done here.
Big Danger: Allegria (Best Odds: $3.00) ran here a couple of weeks and was excellent in defeat I thought when running third to Land Grant, who was plonked at odds and had a dream run in front, slowing them up midrace then sprinting in the straight, so for Allegria to make up significant ground from the back was very good. McDonald back on board, draws well and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Elusive Catch (Best Odds: $6.50) ran a couple of weeks back at the Sunny Coast and looked a little unlucky I thought when third to Ellawisdom, beaten narrowly and arguably should have won with a clear run. The stable have an absolute lethal record when he brings runners to Sydney, and from gate one, she should get every chance.
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Race Three (1:20pm) : Bob Ingham Handicap 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Voilier (Best Odds: $4.80) resumes here for Gary Nickson after a solid Autumn prep. He was touted as a possible Slipper contender, but he couldn’t quite measure up behind the big boys, namely Headwater and Vancouver. He has these covered in terms of class, but given he is likely being aimed at the Golden Rose, his fitness levels might not be high. But the class might get him home.
Big Danger: Japonisme (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed at Canterbury, and aided by a lovely ride from Hugh Bowman, the Chris Waller trained youngster proved too good for rivals. This is a pretty handy race, so it is a fair step up, but he is trained on the track, draws well and handles the wet.
Roughie: Tatoosh (Best Odds: $14.00) is an in form juvenile for Paul Perry who has taken care of a couple of thin two year old events at Wyong and Tamworth respectively, and there was a bit of merit to the Tamworth win given he bungled the start and chased all the way yet still got the job done. Significant rise in depth, but is fit, in form and in an in form yard.
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Race Four (1:55pm) : Alpha Flight Services Handicap (85) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Sense And Reason (Best Odds: $11.00) to bounce back. She ran at this track last time out and just couldn’t really get into the race in a slowly run event, running ninth to Hard To Hold. I think the key to her is Schofield back on, she has gate one and most notably it’s a small field, so she won’t be as far back I think and she looks a great each-way bet.
Big Danger: Berry Delicious (Best Odds: $3.00) has been superbly at her past couple of outings, both starts resulting in wins, firstly from Winona Costin and then from Tye Angland here a couple of weeks back, charging home from near last and making ground near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. Costin is back on and she will take much needed weight off. Fabulous record at the track/distance and looms as the one to beat.
Roughie: The improver at odds here could well be the Les Bridge trained Amazon (Best Odds: $6.50), who really caught the eye last time out at Canterbury when working home from near last to run fourth to Miss Tenpins. Bigger track looks ideal, Tommy is riding in good form and gets down now to the minimum. Definite knockout chance.
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Race Five (2:35pm) : Primo Smallgoods Handicap (90) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: This race looks like it is Shiraz‘s (Best Odds: $2.40) to lose. He trialled brilliantly on his home track at Hawkesbury before resuming here a couple of weeks back. and aided by an absolute peach by Jason Collett, the son of Zariz sprinted brilliantly from off the speed to pounce and score quite a dominant win. He sprinted sharply from the back to win over 1100m here second up last time in, but he looks a far better horse now, and this really looks his race.
Big Danger: Casual Choice (Best Odds: $5.50) resumed over 1100m here a couple of weeks back and worked home very strongly from the back to run second to Shiraz, beaten just over a length. He ran alright second up last time in, but the first up run here was much better. Doubt he can turn the tables on Shiraz, but he should run well again.
Roughie: Cradle Me (Best Odds: $6.50) worked home very strongly three weeks back here when running fourth to Two Blue, beaten 1.4L. That mare franked the form by running a beauty in the Civic. She has a great record at Rosehill and looks a definite winning chance if she gets the right run. Negative is that she hasn’t won for a while.
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Race Six (3:15pm) : Hungry Jacks Handicap (75) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Dance Of Heroes (Best Odds: $4.00) at odds here. He resumes here, and while his best form is at 2000m and beyond, his recent trial effort here was simply outstanding in a trial where the form has really stood up, and he won it comfortably. I think had he drawn a better gate, I’d declare him, but even with the wide gate, I think he’ll prove very hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Forget (Best Odds: $4.80) is a former Darley galloper who has done very well since joining the Kim Waugh yard. He sprouted wings late from near last to get the job done last start at Warwick Farm in a race where the form has held up well. Top weight and wide gate here, but Shinn is on board and he loves give in the ground.
Roughie: Dragon Flyer (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed at Canterbury and worked home strongly late when third to Napayshini before going to Warwick Farm and again making ground late when fifth to Forget, beaten just under three lengths. He ran well third up last time in, he draws well and he handles all conditions. Definite chance at odds.
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Race Seven (3:55pm) : Sydney Markets Limited Winter Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really good race here. I’m going to give See The World (Best Odds: $9.50) another chance here. I thought his run in the Civic (1350m) was outstanding given he probably got a bit further back than anticipated from the handy gate, then he got badly held up at times in the straight. His record at 1400m doesn’t read too well, but his effort last start does indicate he looks ready to tackle it now, and his record at the track is fabulous.
Big Danger: Rugged Cross (Best Odds: $10.00) also comes through the Civic, and he was very good also, coming from last on the turn to run fourth to Haussmann, beaten just under three lengths. That was back from a 1500m run here, so back up to 1400m now looks ideal, he is rock hard fit, trained on the track and looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: Liberty’s Choice (Best Odds: $9.00) resumes here for Gai after a good spell. His last run came in the Crystal Mile last year on Cox Plate Day when sixth to Hooked. A couple of recent trials to prepare for this have been pretty sharp, and the indicators are there that he is ready to run a beauty first up, so keep an eye on market moves.
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Race Eight (4:35pm) : Forum Group Handicap (78) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Marenostro (Best Odds: $2.60) drops a touch in grade after running third here a fortnight back behind stablemate Hollywood Bound after not getting a great deal of luck in the straight. His form and efforts prior to that were excellent, and given he is rock hard fit here compared to a few of his rivals, he does look well placed and is one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: In a race depleted by scratchings, a horse who could improve at odds is Scottish Border (Best Odds: $31.00). His two runs back from a break haven’t been too bad, and now with Bowman up, he draws a gate and grows a leg in the mud.
Roughie: Punch Your Weight (Best Odds: $34.00) hasn’t done a great deal since coming to Australia, and his first up run behind Rockalong here was poor, but I didn’t mind the way he went in a recent barrier trial last week at Warwick Farm, sitting out the back and closing off strongly late. He saves his best for wet tracks, draws an inside gate and has the services of an in form hoop in Thomas Huet.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Shiraz
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 8 Dance Of Heroes
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 See The World
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2
Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 11
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 9, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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