18/4/2015 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, All Aged Stakes day

The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday at Randwick with a strong eight race card, highlighted by a star studded field set to take their place in the $400,000 Group l Schweppes All Aged Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.

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Race One (12:35pm) : EGroup Security Sprint 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: Really tricky race to kick the program off. I’m going with Mohave (Best Odds: $7.00). He ran really well during the Spring/Summer, but had enough by the end of last prep when running near last to Burbero, who has been one of the in form gallopers in Sydney. Two trials to prepare for his return to racing, and they have each been very good, including the latest one at Warwick Farm when fourth to Damselle, who spanked her rivals at Gosford on Tuesday. Mohave runs well fresh, drawn well, McDonald rides and stable is flying.
Big Danger: Big watch on the first up run of Aussies Love Sport (Best Odds: $15.00), now under the care of David Vandyke after formerly being with Gai Waterhouse. Has only had one trial, but he really caught my eye when running third to Skylimit, an above average galloper. Might need the run, but on his best form, he’s better than these.
Roughie: I can’t see much speed here, and given the on speed bias that has been on display at Randwick recently, the Gai Waterhouse trained King Cobia (Best Odds: $34.00) comes into contention I feel. He ran behind some smart gallopers last time in and his two trials leading up to this have been good enough to suggest he can run well fresh, and he has had support in betting.

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Race Two (1:10pm) : Johnnie Walker Frank Packer Plate 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Pretty even edition of this time honoured event. Going with Wine Tales (Best Odds: $4.80), who ran in the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) and was disappointing on face value when sixth to Candelara, but there was on speed bias that afternoon and I don’t think she was 100% happy in the going. Firmer surface here should help and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Hi World (Best Odds: $2.25) has been excellent in three runs back from a break, including his last starts, both resulting in wins, including the Carbine Club Stakes (1600m) last time out where he led them a merry dance at a slow tempo and clung on. He is much better ridden with a trail and 2000m should pose no worries.
Roughie: Merion (Best Odds: $3.20) is the class runner and Mike Moroney steered clear of the Derby after the horse ran a distant third to Hauraki in the Tulloch Stakes (2000m) on Slipper Day. 2000m is his limit, but is the clear class runner on his side and does handle all conditions, so he has to rate as a contender.

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Race Three (1:45pm) : Kari J H B Carr Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Putting Matjilla (Best Odds: $6.00) on top. She last ran in the P J Bell Stakes (1200m) and tried very hard when running third to Miss Cover Girl and Peeping. Perhaps she was ridden a touch too close that day and may have not been 100% happy on the heavy track. Drawn well, McDonald rides…hard to beat.
Big Danger: Peeping (Best Odds: $3.50) has been excellent this time in, winning two and finishing second in four runs. Looked to have the P J Bell in the bag, but she just couldn’t quite get past Miss Cover Girl, who had a picnic in front and kicked too well. She’ll get a sweet trip near the speed and prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Keep an eye on Anyaas (Best Odds: $26.00) for David Vandyke. She last ran under the lights at Canterbury and got the job done. Has since trialled here, and went very nicely behind Skylimit. May need the run, but the talent is there, she’s drawn the inside and does have a pretty tidy fresh record.

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Race Four (2:25pm) : Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes 1600m: Form Guide

Back Me: With Pride Of Dubai out, this race is wide open. In saying that, I think we can narrow it down to two winning hopes- Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $4.60) and Pasadena Girl. I think I want to be on the horse that has got the hard racing under the belt, and that is Odyssey Moon. He ran an absolute cracker in the Slipper behind Vancouver before going to the Sires and looming to win, but just finding Pride Of Dubai a touch too strong. Up to the mile I think will suit, he is rock hard fit and is seemingly handling this hard racing so well.
Big Danger: Pasadena Girl (Best Odds: $2.50) strung together two wins at Flemington against moderate opposition before going to the Sires, and the filly ran a cracker when running fourth to Pride Of Dubai, making up a stack of ground from the back to finish just over a length from the winner. That tough run on a heavy track will leave her with two scenarios in regards to her chances-That run will toughen her up and she’ll go close to winning. Or she’ll fall in a heap and run near last. That’s the query, but it’s a thin race.
Roughie: I think one to include at odds is Mine Two (Best Odds: $16.00). She’s on the quick back up after racing in the Percy Sykes last week, where she was totally unsuited by the slow tempo. She was only beaten 1.7L in a race which had far more depth than what she faces here, so a firmer track and distance increase could see her surprise at odds.

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Race Five (3:05pm) : JRA Plate 2000m: Form Guide

Back Me: Tricky race with many chances. It was hard not to be impressed by the first up run of Malice (Best Odds: $4.20) in the Doncaster Prelude (1500m) when running a close second to Excess Knowledge. He loomed to beat that horse, and with 200m to go he did look the winner, but his fitness just gave way late. He’ll take good benefit from that outing, up to 2000m suits, as does racing on a bigger track. Looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Expecting a much better run from Leebaz (Best Odds: $3.20), who can be forgiven for his failure in the Doncaster Mile (1600m) given he bombed the start where it was originally planned for him to settle in the first few. His two runs prior to that were solid, and he now gets to a suitable trip. Definite threat.
Roughie: Don’t be surprised to see Malavio (Best Odds: $12.00) run a cheeky race here at huge odds. He has run really well this time in without winning, including a close sixth in the Doncaster Prelude which followed another close up sixth in the Ajax. He perhaps is looking for something extra, and that could well be Tye Angland, who is one of the strongest riders in Sydney and he can certainly lift a horse, and that is what this horse is looking for.

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Race Six (3:45pm) : Schweppes All Aged Stakes 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: No reason to jump off Chautauqua (Best Odds: $3.20) here I think. He produced arguably the run of the Championships when winning the T J Smith Stakes (1200m) considering the crazy on speed bias that afternoon yet he came from last at the 400m mark and ended up winning. He bolted up in the Hawkesbury Guineas over 1400m then ran in the Scone Guineas and had no luck behind Cosmic Endeavour, who went on to win a Group l. No problems with him running a strong 1400m and he is clearly the best horse in the race.
Big Danger: Dissident (Best Odds: $10.00) hasn’t been seen since running a disappointing third in the Futurity Stakes (1400m) behind Suavito. It was probably an error in judgement from Ben Melham which cost the future stallion another victory at the highest level. Moody immediately gave him a break and has specifically targeted this race. Handles Randwick and is a bomb when produced fresh.
Roughie: There was plenty to like about the win of Generalife (Best Odds: $26.00) first up in the Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m), showing a lethal turn of foot near the inside to grab victory right on the peg. He is a horse who has been accused of not being genuine in the past, but he definitely is now since O’Shea has taken over, and one thing about these Godolphin horses is that they are always wound up to run well early on in a prep, so keep track of betting moves for this horse.

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Race Seven (4:25pm) : Ticketek Hall Mark Stakes 1200m: Form Guide

Back Me: With the run under the belt, as well as a lovely recent trial, I’ll put Craftiness (Best Odds: $5.00) on top. He is heading towards the Stradbroke and trainer Joe Pride gave the exciting sprinter a look at the Doomben track a couple of weeks back. He did what was required. He got around it and won. Kept up to the mark with a lovely trial on Friday at Warwick Farm when second to Decision Time. Fitter, good weight, handles all conditions…looks hard to beat.
Big Danger: Target In Sight (Best Odds: $7.00) looks the logical threat. His two runs back from a break have been outstanding. It started off with a win over former boom sprinter Deep Field before going to the Star Kingdom and looking the winner, but was bloused late by Generalife. That’s good enough form for this and he should take a power of beating.
Roughie: Charlie Boy (Best Odds: $17.00) is the interesting one. He ran well during the Spring without winning, but he has looked very sharp in a couple of barrier trials to prepare himself for the Brisbane Winter, including a second to Our Boy Malachi, who is a definite chance here himself. Charlie Boy does race well fresh and I have been encouraged by the trial efforts.

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Race Eight (5:05pm) : TAB Rewards Royal Randwick 100 (100) 1400m: Form Guide

Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of Lucky Lago (Best Odds: $16.00). I really liked the way she trialled before going into the Star Kingdom Stakes (1200m), where the distance was probably not suited to her, and the fact they went slow in front. Trial was too good to dismiss, Cassidy sticks and her two Randwick runs have seen her finish close behind Group l performers in Sharnee Rose and Diamond Drille.
Big Danger: Burbero (Best Odds: $5.00) drops significantly in grade after contesting the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), where he finished 2.6L off Real Impact in what is the hottest form race of the Autumn. Drops to benchmark company and is only 3.5kg over the minimum despite being a Group l performer and recent Group ll winner.
Roughie: Ecuador (Best Odds: $8.00) resumes here for Gai Waterhouse after an injury plagued 2014. He hasn’t raced since the 2014 Ajax Stakes when finishing 3.4L off Messene. Recent trial win here, though ridden hard, was impressive, and he did beat Criterion, and we saw what he did last Saturday. He’ll be up on speed and proving a tough nut to crack.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 9, 12, 13

Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 10

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.