A strong nine race card has been set down for Caulfield this Saturday, highlighted by a couple of $120,000 listed events and several $250,000 VOBIS Gold races. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:45am) : MackTow Marathon Series Final (90) 4000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Duplicity Jones (Best Odds: $2.60) and Jileks Spur should quinella the race. Just a matter of which horse will salute first. I think the better stayer is Duplicity Jones. He doesn’t get out of first gear, but he continues at that first gear all day. He should lead these comfortably, dictate and prove hard to run down as he always does.
Big Danger: Jileks Spur (Best Odds: $2.45) has got the better of Duplicity Jones at their last two outings, aided by peach rides from Michelle Payne. I query him running 4000m compared to the top tip, but he won’t be far away again and will be there, ready to pounce.
Roughie: Really not sure what to put in for third…maybe Vihanna Victory? (Best Odds: $21.00) It’s been a long time since she has greeted the judge, but she did run third to Jileks Spur two back, then wasn’t suited by the soft track at Mornington. 4000m won’t be an issue IMO, and is one to include in exotics.
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Race Two (12:20pm) : Mitsubishi Electric Superscreen Launch Plate 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Shoreham (Best Odds: $5.50) worked home pretty well first up in the Blamey Stakes (1600m) behind Suavito before running in the Easter Cup (2000m) here and again finding the line strongly when third to Sertorius. He does tend to need the couple of runs under his belt, but given he has raced so well in these opening two runs, I think he’ll take a power of beating here.
Big Danger: Star Fashion (Best Odds: $3.80) has contested a couple of strong mares races this time in, and she has been quite good at each outing, including last time out in the Sunline Stakes (1600m) when running fifth to Noble Protector, who franked the form with an unbelievable run in the Queen Of The Turf. Drawn well, Walker sticks and she loves Caulfield.
Roughie: The sister of Makybe Diva, La Amistad (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed in the Sunline Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley and wasn’t suited in an on speed affair, which was dominated by Noble Protector, who franked the form in the Queen Of The Turf. Bigger track helps, she’s fitter and she strikes a winnable race.
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Race Three (12:55pm) : Racing Victoria Off The Track Plate (90) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Good race for the mares. I’ll go with the in form one, which is Pathways, (Best Odds: $8.00) who has won all three runs this time in, including her last two at the Valley. This is her toughest test to date, but she is racing so well and deserves a crack at this level before a possible trip to Adelaide.
Big Danger: Sino Eagle (Best Odds: $6.50) continued her strong first up record with another win, this time down the Flemington straight in a pretty thin race. She goes up in weight which is a concern, and she is not as good when produced second up, but she’s on her home track, which is a definite advantage.
Roughie: Nautical (Best Odds: $11.00) resumes for Nikki Burke here. She only had three runs in the Spring and ran well behind some classy mares such as Commanding Jewel and Mahara. She had enough by the time she ran in the Summoned. Interesting to note she hasn’t trialled for this, but she does run very well fresh, and this is one of the easier fresh assignments she has had in some time.
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Race Four (1:30pm) : Owner.racing.com Handicap (78) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Good race this. Leaning towards Nicoscene (Best Odds: $4.60) given he has been in great form this time in, most notably at Moonee Valley only. He has to do it away from there, but he strikes a winnable race and isn’t badly weighted considering the vein of form he is in.
Big Danger: Olivier (Best Odds: $6.50) didn’t beat much first up at Sandown, but you had to be impressed by the turn of foot he showed. I think Rawiller pushed the button a bit early, and he was therefore left a sitting shot, but he did find plenty when asked. Williams takes over, drawn well, second up winner and races well at Caulfield.
Roughie: Zedi Knight (Best Odds: $26.00) sat wide all the way at Bendigo two back and just failed to pick up Agent before going to Seymour and not getting into the race at all behind Grane. More experienced rider takes over now, drawn well, home track…definite chance.
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Race Five (2:10pm) : VOBIS Gold Ingot 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Danuki (Best Odds: $4.60) defied an alarming betting drift on debut at Donald to win with real authority, winning comfortably and running strong time. Trained on the track here and he looks to have a decent engine under the bonnet. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Kracken (Best Odds: $5.00) was easy on debut at the Bool but he defied that betting drift and scored a strong win, coming from off the speed and letting down powerfully. Should improve with that run under the belt, Williams takes over. Definite threat.
Roughie: Palace Tycoon (Best Odds: $5.00) resumed at Seymour and worked home okay late when fourth to the impressive Stalwart. Trained on the track here and he has shown good ability at the trials and jump outs, so definitely include him.
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Race Six (2:45pm) : VOBIS Gold Sprint 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Trust In A Gust (Best Odds: $1.80). He really came of age in the Spring, ending the prep with back-to-back Group l wins. The Weir horses never trial publicly, so it’s hard to get a guide on his fitness levels, but he does have a very good first up record, and given he is a multiple Group l winner, he just looks so well placed at the weights.
Big Danger: Tycoon Tara (Best Odds: $4.40) has been freshened up after successive Stakes wins during the early part of the Autumn at this track against the mares. She does run well fresh, unbeaten at Caulfield and she is also well suited under the weights scale.
Roughie: Afleet Esprit (Best Odds: $11.00) didn’t have the best of luck last time out at the Valley when fourth to Nicoscene, beaten a length. The little freshen up should suit her, and I think from the wide gate, Nick Hall will ease her back, look for cover and save her for the last furlong, because she does have a lethal turn of foot when produced.
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Race Seven (3:25pm) : Thoroughbred Breeders Victoria VOBIS Gold Reef 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet of the day across Australia here with Fontein Ruby (Best Odds: $1.90). She was dominant last time out in the Alexandra at the Valley. She led comfortably, but looked in trouble at the top of the straight, but clicked into full action and her close rose to the occasion. Maps very well here, should lead comfortably, and she just has lengths on these in terms of class. Only query is that Nick Hall is riding and not Mark Zahra.
Big Danger: Jurasound (Best Odds: $3.50) was given a sweet ride by Dwayne Dunn to charge clear and score a super win in the Mornington Guineas. That was her first run in five weeks, and she just relaxed beautifully in the run. Second up record isn’t too flash, which is the worry, but she is drawn inside Fontein Ruby, so perhaps Dunn can kick out early, then sit on the back of Fontein Ruby and have the last say.
Roughie: Sebrella (Best Odds: $34.00) is heading towards the Oaks at Morphettville and she ran last time out over 1400m and wasn’t too bad when finishing midfield to Samartested, laying in a touch in the straight. This should top her off for the Oaks, she draws well and should get a soft trip. Place chance for sure.
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Race Eight (4:05pm) : Gallagher Bassett VOBIS Gold Mile 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Self Sense (Best Odds: $4.40) will appreciate the drop in grade after contesting Stakes races at his past three outings, including the Albury Cup (2000m) last time out when running a close up third to Koukram. Back to the mile suits, Melham back aboard, and he is another that just looks so well suited at the weights.
Big Danger: Refulgent (Best Odds: $7.50) was given a torrid ride last time out in the Tatura Cup (1600m), sitting three wide no cover in a fast run race. He ended up finishing fifth, beaten five lengths by Epic Saga in a pretty handy form race. He has been a touch disappointing this time in, but he has the ability and Darren Weir is a genius when it comes to these races.
Roughie: Can’t see much speed here, so expect Written (Best Odds: $7.50) to ping to the front and give them something to chase. She wasn’t beaten that far last time out behind Refer, and with a softer lead here, she can improve and even surprise at odds.
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Race Nine (4:45pm) : TROA Bel Esprit Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Gee Politeness (Best Odds: $10.00) looks well suited here. She had one run in the Autumn, back on Valentines Day over 1200m here when finishing a close third to Tycoon Tara. Has been given a break after that, and she worked home very strongly in a recent barrier trial. Interesting to note that Nick Hall has elected to ride Sabatini, but D Dunn is a handy second option.
Big Danger: Sabatini (Best Odds: $6.00) takes on the older horses after racing so well against her own age and sex this time in. She last ran in the Kewney Stakes (1400m) and savaged the line late to run a close second to Wawail. Form out of that race has been quite poor, and she is drawn wide here, but she has class, she’s fit and Nick Hall does stick with her ahead of Politeness.
Roughie: Expecting a cheeky run from General Truce (Best Odds: $51.00). He was terrible first up down the straight behind subsequent Group l performer Chloe In Paris. He then went to the final 55 second challenge heat at the Valley and worked home well when finishing sixth to multiple Group l winner Platelet. He runs very well at Caulfield, bigger track will suit compared to the Valley, and there is a hot speed here on the map, so he should get back and charge late.
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Race Ten (5:20pm) : Mypunter.com Anniversary Vase 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Under The Louvre (Best Odds: $3.30) looks the way to go. Scored a dominant win in the Hareeba Stakes (1200m), sweeping home from last and winning with a fair bit of ease. Gets back to his home track now, and despite rising in weight, he is the form horse and the clear one to beat.
Big Danger: Sistine Demon (Best Odds: $8.50) ran in the Victoria Handicap (1400m) and ran along at a good tempo on speed, and seemingly looked home with 200m to go, but he just felt the pinch late and was grabbed on the line by Watermans Bay and The Peak. He’ll be up on speed again and once again he’ll give a bold sight.
Roughie: Bippo No Bungus (Best Odds: $18.00) just cannot draw a gate, but she is absolutely bursting to win a race like this. Knocking on the door big time, but just needs luck from the gate. If she can get it, she’s right in this on the minimum.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Fontein Ruby
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 8 Politeness
VALUE: Race Three Number 9 Pathways
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 10
Leg Four: 3, 4, 7, 15
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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