The Melbourne Autumn Carnival winds down at Flemington this Saturday but the nine race card is still very good, highlighted by the Group ll Blamey Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:35) : Emirates Melbourne Cup Tour Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Catch A Fire (Bet Now: $4.20) for me here in a really open contest. She ran over 1100m here last time out where the query was that the trip was too short for her, and that just found her out late. Extra 100m is ideal, as well as the extra run under the belt, plus she has class. Confident she can go close.
Big Danger: 4 Andrassy (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented mare who has some really good form behind her and despite this being her first go down the straight I think she can run a beauty. Ran over 1200m at the Valley last time out where she got a mile back in the run yet worked home late behind Deja Blue. Has upside and should run well up to her best form.
Long Shot: 7 Chat To Maggie (Bet Now: $61.00) is a really good mare from Terang for the Harold Barry camp. Ran on her home track last time out over 1000m where she came with a well timed run under Chelsea Hall but couldn’t quite get past Roycey. She has run well in town before, down in the weights and she finds a very winnable race here.
Race Two (13:10) : VRC Thanks Greg Miles Trophy 1400m:
Back Me: Keen to see how 7 Bastille (Bet Now: $3.10) measures up here. Two for two for his career and steps up to Saturday grade after winning at midweek level at Sandown last time out when sitting on speed and coming clear late for a super win. Draws the lovely gate to stalk the speed, senior rider aboard and has upside.
Big Danger: 3 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $2.05) did an enormous job in defeat when racing here afortnight back given he led at a brutal tempo with pressure applied and really had every right to drop out but he kept on, only to be grabbed in the last hop by Mr Sneaky. If he hasn’t sooked up from that gutbuster, he’s one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 2 Flying Jess (Bet Now: $7.00) was down to run in the Kewney (1400m) here last week, but was scratched. Instead, tackles the softer option. She is the complete unknown here. Did win the Magic Millions Guineas, but she was a $101 shot and was given a peach. Form prior to that was patchy, so I’d rather watch her here than back her. But still, a must for exotics.
Race Three (13:45) : Baden Racing Trophy 1100m:
Back Me: 6 Merriest (Bet Now: $7.50) is a quality filly that resumes for the Danny O’Brien yard. Ran some really good races at Stakes level during the Spring, and in fact won the Listed Atlantic Jewel. The form also includes an effort behind Flying Artie in the Blue Sapphire…that form just reads so well for this, and her recent jump outs have been quite encouraging.
Big Danger: 7 Leotie (Bet Now: $4.80) is a very smart filly that resumes for the Henry Dwyer yard. She was one of the real up and comers during the Spring, including a narrow second at Caulfield behind I Am A Star before racing like a tired horse in the Thousand Guineas. Jump outs have been very good and I think we now know she is a sprinter.
Long Shot: 8 Overstep (Bet Now: $8.00) is a well bred filly for Chris Waller who hasn’t really set the world on fire since joining the Chris Waller stable but she has run some okay races. Like most, she didn’t get a great deal of luck in the Typhoon Tracy (1200m) at the Valley. She is better than that, and the trial prior behind Star Turn indicated she had come back in good order.
Race Four (14:25) : TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Time Awaits (Bet Now: $11.00) was a drifter in the market when contesting the Cinderella (1050m) at Morphettville a fortnight back but nobody told the filly that as she came with a brilliant finishing burst to nab Spoils right on the peg. That filly ran well on Monday, so the form is okay, and the run prior, Time Awaits ran well behind Ducimus here in the Talindert and that form reads good.
Big Danger: 4 Garrard (Bet Now: $4.60) ran second to Catchy and Houtzen in her first two career outings, and both times she was far from disgraced. Tipped out, jumped out well at Cranbourne prior to resuming at Bendigo where she was four wide no cover for the trip yet her class and ability got her home. Looks a progressive type with talent and is on trial for the Karrakatta Plate, so she’d want to perform well here to warrant a trip to Perth.
Long Shot: 8 Shoals (Bet Now: $5.00) rises a fair bit in depth but I think she has to be respected here big time off the back of a brilliant debut win at Seymour where she absolutely spanked them and won by a space, running really good time. Trained on the track, so I am sure she would have had a look down the straight, and it’s hard to ignore that debut effort.
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Race Five (15:05) : Incognitus Blamey Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Palentino (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the one to beat here. Hasn’t raced since the Futurity (1400m) at Caulfield where he got back in a slowly run race and stuck on very well in defeat behind stablemate Black Heart Bart. The Flemington mile is his ideal scenario and he finally gets it here. Gets hos chance to bounce back into the winners list and I am confident he can.
Big Danger: 6 Tosen Stradom (Bet Now: $1.85) is a high class animal for Darren Weir that looked wound up to my eye to win the Futurity (1400m) first up and he looked home for all money but was nabbed right on the peg by Black Heart Bart. Looks extremely well in at the weights and rates highly.
Long Shot: 4 Sir Isaac Newton (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big watch here. High class animal that is now with the Hickmott camp and Team Williams after just the one run down under, which came in the Caulfield Cup where he was very good behind Jameka. If he is anywhere near right, he will take care of these I think. He was scratched from an easier race at Morphettville on Monday to be saved for this.
Race Six (15:45) : New York Racing Authority Grand Handicap (80) 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Hursley (Bet Now: $3.00) is on the back up from racing last Saturday over 1800m here, and really, it was just a nightmare to watch for punters. Got badly held up in the straight when clearly looking the winner but just couldn’t get out until it was far too late. Looks ideally suited up to 2000m and Waller horses on the quick back up should always be followed with confidence.
Big Danger: 11 Wheal Leisure (Bet Now: $4.60) is a filly who I have plenty of time for and I will be intrigued to see how she measures up here. Hasn’t raced since Feb 19 in the Tassie Oaks at Launceston where she got very close but had to settle for second to Parthesia. Provided we get an even playing field, I can see her blending in at the right time and proving hard to hod out.
Long Shot: 6 Waxing (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through the Aloft race that Hursley ran second in last week and I thought his effort was pretty good considering he was back in the run and it was a day where making ground was very difficult. He has run well on the quick back up previously, draws to sit closer in the run and the claim for Aitken is a big tick.
Race Seven (16:30) : York Racecourse Grand Handicap (80) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Big Effort (Bet Now: $8.00) is a very progressive South Australian who I am confident can measure up here. He hasn’t raced for five weeks since racing over 1100m at Morphettville where he was wide no cover for the trip and looked beaten a couple of times down the straight but once he balanced up, he surged and came away late. First run down the straight and away from home is the worry, but I’ll take the chance.
Big Danger: 3 Boomwaa (Bet Now: $8.50) looks a leading contender here off the back of an encouraging effort at this track/distance four weeks back where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but was nabbed near the peg by Well Sprung. Trial win since was very good and he does tend to save his best for straight racing.
Long Shot: 12 Aurelius Hero (Bet Now: $51.00) put a frustrating run of outs behind him with a strong and determined effort to get the victory at Swan Hill, aided by a lovely steer from Lucinda Doodt. Admittedly, I am not sure he beat much, but now he does have the win under the belt, his confidence will be up and he could go right on with it.
Race Eight (17:10) : Goodwood Racecourse March Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Pretty confident each way that 5 Hazzabeel (Bet Now: $8.50) can run a ripping race. He resumed in the Apache Cat and I thought he was one of the runs of the race given he was back near last in a slowly run race and finished off with purpose. Won the Kilmore Cup second up last time in, and the first up effort was too good to ignore.
Big Danger: 12 Stellar Collision (Bet Now: $5.50) rises to 1400m but he has the runs on the board to be rated as one of the hardest to beat. He was confidently backed to win the Apache Cat and it was painless for his backers, sitting 1/1 for the trip and scoring a soft win. 1400m is the obvious query, but the one to beat on form.
Long Shot: The horse that can knock this field off is 4 Entirely Platinum (Bet Now: $9.50). This is the easiest race he has contested for a couple of years so I am giving him enormous respect here. Jump outs leading in have been quite good, and he is an absolute bomb when produced fresh, plus he will be on speed. Hard to beat.
Race Nine (17:45) : The Curragh Grand Handicap (80) 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Portman (Bet Now: $3.30) just picks himself here. He was a bit unlucky when racing over this track/distance two weeks back given he was tardy to begin with and that gifted Show A Star the lead, and that horse set up the slow tempo to kick on and get the win. With a more genuine speed here, Portman should be much better off. Keen.
Big Danger: 6 Atlantic City (Bet Now: $11.00) had been out of the winners circle for a little while, but it was really good to see him bounce back and greet the judge first a couple of Wednesdays back at Sandown where he had a charmed run behind the tempo and once Williams got the split, away he went and he was strong on the line. He is another that can go right on with it.
Long Shot: 14 Stormsabrewing (Bet Now: $11.00) is the knockout chance here. Strong effort to win two back at Sandown before racing on Wangaratta Cup Day where she just got too far back in the run yet finished off with real purpose to run third to Exacting. The 1600m Flemington has to offer is ideal and provided there is an even playing field, she’s right in this.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 7 Portman
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Palentino
VALUE: Race Eight Number 5 Hazzabeel
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 11
Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 10, 11, 12
Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 9, 12
Leg Four: 7
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