The SA Racing Carnival is getting more warm this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Birthday Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.
[crownbetoffer]
Race One (13:13) : Adelaide Galvanising Handicap (70) (70) 1050m:
Back Me: 5 Arleigh (Best Odds: $3.20) is a well bred Arrowfield filly for Phillip Stokes that looks a leading contender after racing on the Parks track a fortnight back where she was one of several desperately unlucky runners in a real messy race, getting no room in the straight until it was all over behind Arizona Wildcat. Just only needs better luck here to take care of this lot IMO.
Big Danger: 4 Nodoubtaboutit (Best Odds: $7.50) is a talented filly that resumes for the Phillip Stokes yard. She ran three times during the Winter, resulting in two wins and then a down the track effort behind Benz before being tipped out. No trials leading in, but you’d assume she’d be forward enough to run well fresh, and she strikes a very winnable race.
Long Shot: 3 With A Bit Of Dash (Best Odds: $7.00) is a quality filly that resumes for the Chris Bieg camp. She ran really well during the Spring, and actually ran a couple of times during the Melbourne Spring, where she was far from disgraced on each occasion. Looked sharp in a recent trial win on the Parks track and appears forward enough to win first up.
Race Two (13:48) : James Boags Premium Maiden Plate 1050m:
Back Me: 6 Wanted By All (Best Odds: $4.60) is a handy looking gelding that resumes for the Chris Bieg yard. He ran a couple of really good races in city maidens last prep before failing on the Parks track and tipped out for a break. Trialled on that track and won, and looked sharp to the eye. Market watch for him for sure and see if there is a push.
Big Danger: 9 Invisible Girl (Best Odds: $5.00) is the watch horse here. Debuted in Stakes grade during the Carnival last year when finishing down the track behind the well performed Moqla. Given a quiet trial to prepare for the return to racing, but if there is any push from the market, jump on, especially with this stable.
Long Shot: 2 Art Music (Best Odds: $16.00) is a gelding on debut for the John Hickmott stable. Complete unknown given there are no trials and this is the first foal out of the mare, who did win a race and ran well in a Group ll behind Cox Plate winner Pinker Pinker. Another that should be watched with the market and that will tell us what ability he has.
Race Three (14:23) : Schweppes Plate 1050m:
Back Me: 10 Dvina (Best Odds: $7.50) is a well bred filly on debut for Aquis Farm and Tony McEvoy. This daughter of Smart Missile has trialled twice, the latest coming on the Parks track last Friday when winning that under a nice hold and went through the motions like a filly who will win races. I think she can win start one.
Big Danger: The Hayes/Dabernig stable will produce the unraced 6 Amthaal (Best Odds: $4.50) here. This filly is by Lonhro out of Jalash, and though she hasn’t officially trialled, she has looked okay at the Flemington jump outs and stable has been going really well with their juveniles.
Long Shot: 3 Tabbing (Best Odds: $5.50) attempted to lead all the way in the Sanadaat race on the parks track, and he ran along at a decent enough clip. Just felt the pinch late and had to settle for fourth, beaten 3.6L. Trialled brilliantly prior and there was confident market support to win the race. I think if he doesn’t go as hard here, he will take a power of beating.
Race Four (14:58) : UBET Adelaide Cup March 13 Handicap (70) 2020m:
Back Me: This is a very ordinary race. Landed with 2 Barge And Charge (Best Odds: $19.00) but with no confidence at all. He comes through a 3000m race at the Valley where he got into a real speed battle with Valediction, and at 3000m, that just puts away your winning hopes. They finished near last. Back to this trip looks ideal, he’s tough, and he is up against nothing.
Big Danger: 1 Optimize (Best Odds: $2.50) drops in grade but is an unknown at the trip. As I said, she drops in grade after contesting the Rain Lover (1800m) here a fortnight back where she sat near the pace and was outclassed in the straight behind Letmedowngently. 2000m is her issue, but she draws a soft gate and Poon remains on.
Long Shot: 7 War Point (Best Odds: $11.00) was a handy horse when trained by Mick Price and was considered a solid Saturday class horse in metro. That was once upon a time, and he has really gone off the boil since, but he was okay last Wednesday over the Murray Bridge mile when making up ground. He can threaten here for sure with the right run.
Race Five (15:33) : Penang Turf Club Trophy (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Duquessa (Best Odds: $18.00) is a mare who will be better suited at 2000m+ but gee I thought her first up run over 1200m at Naracoorte on Sunday was full of merit when running a close up third to Back On Track, beaten just under a length. Quick back up indicates she has come through the run well, and the extra 400m is only going to help her cause.
Big Danger: 10 Freedom Road (Best Odds: $7.00) did a very good job in defeat when second to Have Another Glass last time out where she was wide no cover for the duration and did a power of work yet cruised to the leader and looked the winner but the leader/winner packed one too many when it mattered. Another that isn’t far off a win, and she strikes a very winnable race here.
Long Shot: 3 Beau Rivage (Best Odds: $9.00) can be a hard horse to trust but he is clearly knocking on the door to win one of these races. Ran over 1550m on the Parks track two weeks ago where he sat near the speed and tried hard but just lacked the class and brilliance of Have Another Glass in the race mentioned above. He was 1200m to 1550m that day, so with the run under the belt, the mile here should suit.
Race Six (16:12) : Timmy G Fringe 2017 Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Heart of A Lion (Best Odds: $6.50) for me here. I was on him last start over 1000m on the Parks track a fortnight back where he had the charmed run behind the speed and chased had without room when third to Olivier. Looks well suited up in trip and back on the normal course. Confident he can bounce back into the winners list.
Big Danger: 4 Olivier (Best Odds: $2.70) had confident late market support in that race mentioned above and it was a frustrating day for Weir/Yendall early on, but they bounced back hard courtesy of this horse, who was dominant near the line and drew right away. 1200m is the issue with him, but I think with a cold steer, he will get it.
Long Shot: 5 Scratchy Lass (Best Odds: $8.00) resumed in the Olivier race and just forget she went around given she was stuck wide no cover from the draw and couldn’t get in, and for a mare who is best when ridden off the pace with cover, that clearly wasn’t her go. In fact, she did a tidy job in defeat. Solid second up record and saves her best for the course proper.
Race Seven (16:54) : Holdfast Insurance Birthday Cup 2020m:
Back Me: Keen to stick fat with 10 Saturday Affair (Best Odds: $3.70). She ran over this track/distance last Saturday where she was unbackable odds and lived up to the heavy expectation with a comfortable all the way win under Jamie Kah. She is much better ridden with a sit, and I think that will eventuate here. She has won on the seven day turnaround previously and I am happy to be in her corner.
Big Danger: 1 Extra Zero (Best Odds: $6.50) hasn’t faced a field as easy as this probably since his three year old days, which is going back to last decade. He was really good over 2000m last time out when sitting back in a slowly run race and finishing off with purpose behind Goldstream. Looks so well in at the weights, and a hard 2000m will suit him perfectly.
Long Shot: 7 Chestnut Charlie (Best Odds: $10.00) probably isn’t up to these class wise, but he has to be included off the back of a four length romp over this track/distance three weeks back when bolting up after leading all the way under Emily Finnegan. He lacks the class of some of these, but he is tough, he has good stats at the trip and when he finds form, he holds it.
Race Eight (17:33) : George Zervos Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Barjeel (Best Odds: $4.60) is a well bred gelding who has come back to racing in really good order this time in for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. He has raced four times this time for a couple of wins, one of those coming last time out at Benalla when ridden a treat by Regan Bayliss and bolting up against the older horses. Back to his own age now, and he has the right form around him.
Big Danger: 10 Flying Pan (Best Odds: $6.00) has to be seriously respected here. This Phillip Stokes trained filly broke her maiden status last Wednesday at Murray Bridge over 1400m where she had a nice sit just off the pace before Tourneur eased her wider and once he gave her clear air, gee she showed a lovely turn of foot. On that effort, I am confident she can measure up here.
Long Shot: 2 Peninsula Links (Best Odds: $5.00) is a filly in ripping form at the moment for the Daniel Clarken yard. Her last two starts have come over 1400m on the Parks track, beating Chapel City the first time before proving no match for that gelding next start. Creeping up in the weights, but appears to map quite well, she’s tough and she’ll be out of trouble.
Race Nine (18:33) : MAC: STOP DRUG DRIVING Handicap (64) 1100m:
Back Me: 14 Sandrelli (Best Odds: $5.00) was backed as if unbeatable when making her SA debut for Phllip Stokes on the Parks track at the midweeks and gee she let the punters down badly when fourth to Sire Charleston, but that horse did have a picnic in front, so perhaps an excuse. Trial leading in was outstanding, and has been kept up to the mark with a quiet trial, so giving her another look.
Big Danger: 2 Sir Charleston (Best Odds: $5.50) won that race mentioned above and it was left to a ripping on speed steer by Matthew Poon who had the horse parked up outside the leader and the horse was in complete control of the race. He does tend to save his best racing for early on in the prep, so he rates highly here to my eye with natural improvement.
Long Shot: 8 Magnus Knight (Best Odds: $26.00) ran over 1200m at Ballarat last week and was a big flop when finishing a tailed off last behind Queen Of Tides. Clearly didn’t pull up 100% so he is back home now and finds this race. On his best form, he is right up to these, but the unknown is whether he is going well enough. Giving him one more chance.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 10 Saturday Afffair
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Arleigh
VALUE: Race Five Number 2 Duquessa
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 10
Leg Four: 2, 8, 10, 11, 14
$50 Investment= 8.33% of the dividend if successful
We recommend BET365 for all Quadrella punters. Sign-up at Bet365.com.au via this link for a $200 BONUS!
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
| Bookmaker | Why Bet | Sign Up | Full Review |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Back Yourself with Ladbrokes! | Join | Review |
|
Back a Winner with Neds! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
