Brisbane racing heads to Doomben this Saturday for a strong program. The weather is fine, the track is good (2) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:33pm) : Coastal Fresh Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Halls Creek and Honesta (Best Odds: $1.60), and I will lean towards Honesta, who ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly from the back to run third to Shootacross The Bow, beaten just over two lengths. This field looks significantly weaker, and now being third up, she should be ready to show her best.
Big Danger: Halls Creek (Best Odds: $3.20) ran fourth in that mentioned above, and the son of Tavistock was quite game in defeat considering he was wide no cover for the entire trip near the speed. He had every right to drop out and run last, but he stuck to the task and kept on for fourth. Drawn awkwardly here again, but like I said, the field is weaker and it looks a race in two.
Roughie: Elemental Boy (Best Odds: $34.00) ran last Saturday over 1400m at the Gold Coast and ran on late in the piece when running third to All Get Clanged, beaten 2.5L. He does meet the winner here 1.5kg worse off at the weights, but that horse has an apprentice on while this galloper has Jim Byrne in the saddle, so that should even it out.
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Race Two (1:08pm) : Qantac Pty Ltd Handicap (Class 6) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Satirical Lass (Best Odds: $1.70) ran over this track/distance three weeks back and she just spanked her rivals, winning by five lengths in a very dominant on speed win. There does look to be good speed here and she is drawn wide, so that is the worry with her, but on last start form, she is clearly the horse to beat.
Big Danger: Lucky News (Best Odds: $5.50) is a Wyong based mare for Kristan Buchanan who got the job done in impressive fashion last time out at the Gold Coast, sitting behind the speed and letting down powerfully to get the job done. The rise back up in class should be no issue for her and the stable is just low flying at the moment, and this race isn’t overly strong.
Roughie: Balmoral Baby (Best Odds: $15.00) looks the value runner in the race which is dominated by the odds on favourite. Picked himself up off the canvas last start and despite the rise in class in this race Toby Edmonds knows how to train a winner and he has to be included in your tips.
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Race Three (1:43pm) : Stanton Mienert Accountants Handicap (85) 2200m: Form Guide
Back Me: This looks Kaiser Franz‘s (Best Odds: $3.80) race to lose IMO. This son of Savabeel had been bursting to win a race, and he did it in style two back over 2150m at Ipwsich before going to this track/distance and just bolting up, winning by a space and with a fair bit of ease. Rises in class and depth here, but he is on an upward spiral and should really take care of these.
Big Danger: Freton (Best Odds: $4.00) is a grand campaigner who is never too far away from the action. He looked the winner here last time out but couldn’t quite get past Shotover River, who was heavily backed to win that race. He hasn’t won in nine runs this time in, but he is bursting to win one. Don’t think it will be here, but he still should run well.
Roughie: Miss Husson (Best Odds: $15.00) has been quite solid in a couple of runs over 2000m and beyond, including a fair eighth in the Ipswich Cup behind Danchai. She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and worked home strongly to run fifth to Shotover River. She has a great record at the track, and she can produce an excellent finishing burst when saved for the final 400m
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Race Four (2:18pm) : Queensland Breeders Handicap (Class 6) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: The horse who should go close is the Tony Gollan trained Fixation, (Best Odds: $9.00) who has now had two runs back from a spell and should be ready to show his best. He ran over 1350m here last time out and stuck to the task alright I thought when running fourth to Sambuca Shot, beaten just under two lengths. He was ridden a touch closer that day, and I think he is better ridden a touch more quiet. It’ll be interesting to see what Wiggins does from the draw.
Big Danger: L’Entrecote (Best Odds: $4.60) can be a real nightmare to follow as a punter given his racing style of getting back and running on, as we saw last time out over this track/distance when fourth to the in form galloper in Brisbane at the moment, Feltre. Feltre isn’t here, so that helps his cause, plus he is drawn well. Gets his chance to win.
Roughie: Lock’s Legend (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed over 1350m here and worked home okay late when running seventh to Buakaw, beaten 2.5L after getting a long way back in the run and scouting wide on the turn. Up to the mile second up should really suit this horse, he draws well and he has a superb second record, so he is a definite chance here.
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Race Five (2:57pm) : National Jockeys Celebration Day Handicap (0MW) 1110m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Lesley’s Choice (Best Odds: $3.50) here. This horse has been given a three week break since running second to impressive winner Satirical Lass, beaten five lengths. He does race best when produced fresh, and despite drawing awkwardly, he has the class factor and Jeff Lloyd is on, and he is riding in great form at the moment.
Big Danger: Rosenet (Best Odds: $13.00) is a consistent mare who is never too far away from the action, and her consistency was rewarded last time out at Ipswich with a good win, aided by a peach from Matty McGuren, who retains. She’s drawn horribly, but she has overcome bad draws in the past and run well, so don’t let that put you off her if you like her.
Roughie: Idle Chat (Best Odds: $16.00) drops a bit in depth and class after contesting the Sir James Kirby on Grafton Cup Day and he was just run off his legs when eighth to Lyric, beaten just under six lengths in a race dominated by those near the speed. The speed should be good here for him also, fitter and he will be strong late in a tough race to sort out.
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Race Six (3:33pm) : Balmerino Handicap (0MW) 1110m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll go with Dantga (Best Odds: $2.40) but he is no certainty. He is unbeaten in three runs and he has looked quite impressive at each outing, in particular last time out on his home track at Grafton during the Carnival. He looks to have a bright future, and the stable have been patient with him. As I said, he is not a good thing, but he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: Young Fun (Best Odds: $9.00) ran over the 1000m at the Sunny Coast a tick over three weeks back and stuck to the task okay late when fifth to Highly Geared, beaten 2.6L after receiving every chance just off the speed. He can race flat second up off a good first up run, so I think I can excuse him there. Byrne on, drawn well, hard to beat.
Roughie: Dropping back to 1110m should suit Ali Mountain (Best Odds: $31.00), who ran over 1200m at the Sunny Coast last start and looked the winner with about 200m to go, but he just died on the run and folded up to run fourth to Nickiera. He should get the gun run from the paint draw and he is a knockout chance at good odds here.
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Race Seven (4:17pm) : Cargo Transport Systems Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Discreet (Best Odds: $10.00) on top for me here. She finished off her race okay two back behind Aussies Love Sport before coming to this track/distance a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly late when running second to Choice Bro. She meets the winner significantly better at the weights and is knocking on the door to win. Gets her chance here.
Big Danger: Murder Of Crows (Best Odds: $6.00) makes his debut for Gillian Heinrich after formerly being with Chris Waller. When with Waller, he was terribly frustrating to follow, travelling sweetly in the run but failing to finish the race off. Recent Gold Coast trial was solid, he flies fresh, and on his Sydney form, he’d be terribly hard to beat here.
Roughie: Black Cash (Best Odds: $16.00) stuck on alright two back at Ipswich behind Tukiyo, finishing fourth. The grey then went to the 1350m here and couldn’t quite wind up after getting trapped wide, finishing five lengths off Cum Dividend in running sixth. He hasn’t won in a long time, but he has the class and talent to win, and I think back to 1200m should really suit.
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Race Eight (4:53pm) : Racezone Handicap (Class 6) 1350m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to stick with Lauterbrunnen (Best Odds: $11.00). He bolted in two back at the Sunny Coast before coming to this track/distance a fortnight back and storming home from near last to run third to Buakaw, beaten 1.4L. This is his pet distance, and if he can somehow sit a touch closer compared to last start, he will take some beating here.
Big Danger: Feltre (Best Odds: $3.40) ran over the mile here a couple of weeks and duly won, aided by another peach ride from Ryan Wiggins, who is building up a really good association with this horse. He loves racing here, and back in trip should be no issue. Hard to beat for sure given he draws to get the gun run yet again. Major contender.
Roughie: The watch horse for this entire meeting is definitely Quick Snitzel (Best Odds: $10.00), a former Peter Moody runner who is now with Robert Heathcoate. He promised a fair bit when with Moody, but the screws in his head weren’t on properly and he failed to deliver. Hasn’t trialled for his return to racing, so his fitness levels are unknown, but on his best form, he’d just about beat these. Watch market moves.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Lauterbrunnen
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Honesta
VALUE: Race Seven Number 5 Discreet
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 13, 20
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 11
Leg Four: 1, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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