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The Kensington track at Randwick will play host to a strong nine race card on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (11:40AM) EVEREST CARNIVAL ON SALE HANDICAP 1400m

Back Me

Think the safe option is 6 Giovanna Run (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS). Chris Waller trained daughter of Press Statement that resumed over 1150m here when given a sweet steer just off the speed by J Mac and she presented to win 200m out. Looked home, but was bloused late by the well supported Obvious Step, who got the dream inside split and won. Straight to 1400m I think will be okay and looks the one with the progression.

Danger

4 Montefelia (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Kermadec for David Payne that resumes with I think an eye towards staying races in the Spring. This filly ran twice during the Autumn, winning on debut at Newcastle before going to Rosehill and contesting the Baillieu when far from disgraced behind Holyfield. Couple of trials have been okay and always have to respect the stable with their juveniles.

Long Shot

Fitter, up in trip and back to his own age should suit the David Payne trained 1 Bazooka (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS). Resumed over 1300m on the course proper here two weeks ago against older horses and although he finished last, he was only beaten four lengths and closed off okay. Winner of that race, Edison, won last Saturday to frank the form and up to 1400m I do like.

Race 2. (12:15PM) TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP 1100m

Back Me

I like 8 Skara Brae (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) here. Produced an electric turn of foot to win over 900m at Scone two back before contesting a Randwick Highway two weeks ago and worked home strongly from the back when third to Leo. Gets a 3.5kg weight swing on that horse and the way I’m thinking this track will play, the wide barrier is perfect.

Danger

4 Mr Magical (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) looks quite progressive for Jamie Stewart. Has won 2/2 to start his career and has been impressive each time he has stepped out. Debuted with a win at the Sapphire Coast before being spelled. Then went to Nowra for the resumption when a notable drifter in betting but class got him home. Think he can measure up here.

Long Shot

Can’t totally dismiss 1 Leo (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS). He was first up with no trial leading into that Highway mentioned above, and there was no market support, but gee he was trucking from a long way out. Just a matter of getting clear air, which Innes did, and he kicked on strongly to win. Harder here, and is up big time in weight, but has to be respected all the same.

Race 3. (12:50PM) DE BORTOLI WINES HANDICAP 1100m

Back Me

3 Tailleur (Bet Now: $1.70 TOP ODDS) looks better than benchmark company and confident she can win again. Loved the way she knuckled down to win first up on the course proper here two weeks ago, wearing down the race fit Switched to nab her on the peg. Can only see improvement with her and she looks the one to beat against these, clearly.

Danger

11 Satin Ruby (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of El Roca for Anthony Cummings that resumed over 1250m here at the midweeks when held up at times with something to offer and by the time she got clear, Dancing Gidget had full momentum and was too good. Back in trip is the negative for this filly, but she’ll be strong late.

Long Shot

6 Sweeping Statement (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) can be a big improver here at a price. Lovely win here three back and in two subsequent runs, there has clearly been excuses for her. Wide and no hope at Canterbury, then at Randwick last time out behind Edison, the tempo and track pattern was against. Back to the Kenso, sits back and finishes strong.

Race 4. (1:25PM) SCHWEPPES HANDICAP 1800m

Back Me

I’d love a rise in trip for 10 Secretly (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) but I think with clear air early, 1800m should be fine for her. Ran over this track/distance at the midweeks last time out when held up for too long and by the time she got clear, it was race over behind Picaro. Think she’s going well enough to beat these. Hopefully better luck goes her way.

Danger

2 Kiss The Bride (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door now. Needed the run fresh before racing over the mile at Randwick where he looked the winner at the top of the straight, but had to spend petrol tickets to get to that position and his condition just gave out late. Hard fit now, close to it at least, and 1800m looks ideal.

Long Shot

6 Itz Lily (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for Kris Lees since racing over this trip at Rosehill where she got a fair way back in the run and spotted those in front a big start, and had to duck/weave her way through, so while she did make ground, should have finished a bit closer behind Fulmina. Luckless here a few back on the Kenso track, so she can win this for sure.

Race 5. (2:00PM) QUINCY SELTZER HANDICAP 1800m

Back Me

Hoping that 7 Toryjoy (Bet Now: $3.70) can dominate from the front. Chris Waller trained mare that ran good splits when leading on the course proper here two weeks ago and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to High Opinion. Got some upside to come, should find the front here and prove hard to get past.

Danger

If this turns into a sit/sprint, 5 Matowi (Bet Now: $3.40) has the turn of foot to win. They ran along last time out and that just took away his sprint because for the most part, he looked all over a winner when hitting the front but couldn’t finish it off and High Opinion nabbed him late. He’s bursting to win a race. Hopefully the tempo is not as hot.

Long Shot

Admittedly 6 High Opinion (Bet Now: $8.00) got conditions to suit when winning the race mentioned above, with the fast tempo ensuring the best stayer won the race, which he was. Not sure they will go as hard this time around, but he did beat them and is still a decent price despite that fact and drawing gate one. Think he only runs well again.

Race 6. (2:40PM) SKY RACING ACTIVE HANDICAP 1400m

Back Me

Tricky race, so happy to look for something at odds and 8 Dio D’Oro (Bet Now: $7.50) is indeed that. He ran last Saturday at Rosehill and in an on pace dominated affair, I thought he closed off pretty well behind the heavily backed Partners. He loves wet ground, has run well on the Kenso previously and has won on the back up previously.

Danger

4 Handspun (Bet Now: $1.95) is a key threat. James Cummings has this mare going really well. She gave them a proper spanking over 1400m on the course proper here two weeks ago, with help from an aggressive ride from Tommy Berry, and visually, she was outstanding, but the race was set up for her given they went stupid in front. But she’s got a win on the board and can go on with it.

Long Shot

1 Man Of Peace (Bet Now: $4.60), to be a winning chance, needs to get control in front and turn this into a proper 1400m contest. He copped serious heat over the mile at Flemington a few weeks ago and battled away really well when second to Danon Roman. If the button is pressed, should be able to lead this field up and will give a stack of cheek. Give in the track no issue either.

Race 7. (3:20PM) TAB LIVE VISION HANDICAP 1000m

Back Me

2 Black Magnum (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented sprinter for Mark Newnham that resumes and I think he can kick off the prep with a win. Hasn’t raced since May 2 over the 1250m here when down the track in a race that had Hightail and Trumbull, both Stakes winners subsequent, so that form is A1. Trial was good, he flies fresh and he’s a short course horse.

Danger

They’ve figured out the key to 4 Spaceboy (Bet Now: $2.80)., Let a fast horse be fast and it’s seen him win three of five this prep. Latest of those wins came two weeks ago over this trip on the course proper where he produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing a look in. If similar tactics are adopted here, he’ll look the winner for a long way.

Long Shot

3 Top Striker (Bet Now: $51.00) gets a bit of weight relief here and can run well at odds. Comes through the Handspun race where he lumped 61kg and battled away pretty well I thought behind the Godolphin mare. Gets the weight relief and I don’t think the track will be as testing this time around, so he can run an improved race.

Race 8. (4:00PM) RANVET HANDICAP 1400m

Back Me

Good test here for 7 Strawb (Bet Now: $2.50) but confident she can measure up and confirm what most think in that she’s a quality animal. Nathan Doyle has played the patient game with his runners, the good ones too eg Royal Banquet and this mare. Strawb has done a great job this time in, her latest win seeing her bolt up at Newcastle when jumping clean, something she doesn’t normally do. She’s the one with brilliance and think she can take this out.

Danger

Gee they landed good bets with 8 Vitesse (Bet Now: $8.50) two weeks ago over this trip on the course proper. Found the front, controlled things to suit herself and she was never getting beat in a lovely front running steer from Avdulla. Not sure she’ll get conditions to suit like she did last time, but has the win on the board and her confidence should be up.

Long Shot

6 Pressure (Bet Now: $18.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Matt Cumani, she finds herself with Bjorn Baker. Bit hit and miss when racing in Victoria, but her best saw her city class and Stakes performed. Trial was okay without jumping up and down, but she does have a touch of quality, so I’d watch the market.

Race 9. (4:40PM) HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP 1550m

Back Me

5 Adana (Bet Now: $7.00) is an enigma but I think he’s nearing a win and he gets a golden chance here. He ran over the mile on the course proper here two weeks ago when well backed but just left a touch flat footed when the sprint went on. Picked up and surged hard late to just miss out on picking up Agassi. Hard to beat against these.

Danger

Concede that 11 Le Gai Soleil (Bet Now: $1.65) is promising, but gee odds on? That has to be poison odds given she rises significantly in depth from what she’s faced to date. Made a mess of them over this track/distance last time out when given a peach by J Mac, finding the fast lane out wide and was far too good. Hard to beat, but too short.

Long Shot

Bjorn Baker has 4 Boomtown Rat (Bet Now: $13.00) going really well and it was confirmed with a win last Wednesday at Warwick Farm. Hippo put him into a lovely spot just off the speed and once he popped out into clear air, it looked race over and indeed it was, finishing best to win. Now he’s got a win on the board, could well go on with it.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 Tailleur

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Black Magnum

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 5 Adana

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8

Leg Two: 2, 4

Leg Three: 6, 7, 8, 10

Leg Four: 4, 5, 11, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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