The Belmont Winter Carnival continues on Saturday where it is Belmont Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Belmont Classic 🏆: View the Field for the Belmont Classic
Race 1. Tabtouch Maiden 1000m
6 Petite La Femme (Bet Now: $6.00) looks the pony to bet on. Chris Willis trained filly that has finished runner up in both career outings with a spell in between. Resumed over this track/distance last Wednesday where she got back to near last in the run but loved the way she found the line late when second to Dune Messiah. If she can sit closer in the run, clearly the one to beat.
2 Warbler (Bet Now: $3.20) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Team Williams, this guy is now under the care of Stephen Miller. It’s rare you see the stable let one out of the stable unless they’re no good. Do they think he’s no good? On form, it’s hard to say he’s no good, and thought his Lark Hill trial on Monday was quite good.
4 Ohsumi (Bet Now: $11.00) is one I’d keep an eye on from a market perspective. Jason Pateman trains this three year old, who hasn’t raced since his debut back in December at Ascot when down the track behind Time To Sizzle in a race which has produced seven winners, which does read well for this. No public trials, but gets Mitch Pateman and gate one, so a couple of ticks for him.
Race 2. Free Entry To Belmont Handicap 1000m
3 Boomtastic (Bet Now: $2.20) on top. Simon Miller trained filly that was a well supported favourite when racing over this track/distance two weeks ago when doing work to get near the speed and sort of crabbed around the turn but balanced up and surged hard late to just miss out on picking up We’ve Got Dreams. She can bounce back.
1 We’ve Got Dreams (Bet Now: $4.80) is a beauty for Michael Lane. Bit surprised she was the odds she was when winning over this track/distance two weeks ago, leading throughout with 58.5kg and showing really good ticker from the front to fend them off and win. She’ll likely lead this field up and give a stack of cheek from the front.
2 Mia Dolce (Bet Now: $12.00) is a very interesting runner. They rode her with a sit two weeks ago here instead of the jump/run scenario. She took a sit with cover and she finished her race off much better when a close up fourth to We’ve Got Dreams. Have they unlocked something with her in that she can be ridden quietly and finish off her races better.
Race 3. Perth Racing Club Membership Handicap 2000m
7 British Bessy (Bet Now: $16.00) can easily bounce back. Three weeks between runs since racing over 2100m here when back, wide with cover, and tried to get into the race. Worked home okay but was never really a winning threat behind Divine Shadow. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and back to 2000m I see as a positive.
5 Sentimental Gift (Bet Now: $2.60) is on the seven day back up for Team Williams after racing over this track/distance last Saturday where not much went her way at a vital stage in the straight when seventh, beaten over two lengths by Fancy Fox. Gets good weight relief this time around and has more upside than most.
I think 3 Friar Fox (Bet Now: $13.00) can run a big race here at odds for Justine Erkelens. Ran over the mile two weeks ago here and loved the way she finished her race off from the back when fourth to Resistance. That was coming back from 2000m, so now back up to the ten furlongs, I think she’s a leading contender here against this lot.
Race 4. Amelia Park Plate 1400m
Up to 1400m second up, in the corner of 13 Blow Me Out (Bet Now: $5.50) for Brett Pope. Had trialled up pretty well leaidng into her debut over 1200m here two weeks ago where she was backed at a price and closed off alright late in the piece when third to Bumper Humper. Think 1400m is ideal for her and has more upside than most.
Jumping straight to 1400m from 1000m is interesting with 12 Continuance (Bet Now: $3.10) but hard to question the judgement of Lindsey Smith and his stable. It was a strong win over 1000m and she got better as the race went on, really hitting the line with purpose, so 1400m should be fine and Pike remains on.
Have to give 2 Surveillance (Bet Now: $7.00) another chance. I was on him when he resumed over 1200m here a fortnight ago but on face value, he was very disappointing. Had the suck run in behind the speed but came off the bit before the turn and struggled to pick up. Think a rise in trip will suit and his form from the Autumn is too good to ignore.
Race 5. Belmont Classic 2200m
8 Heaven’s Gift (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to have a stack of improvement to come and happy to be with her again. Was on her at the odds in the Belmont Oaks where Noske put her into a lovely spot just off the speed and she was there to win at the top of the straight, but inexperience probably cost her when a close up third. Like her up to 2200m and speaking to trainer Holly Locke during the week, she said the horse has improved from the run.
5 Cambist (Bet Now: $4.40) is deserving of a win for Robyn Lockwood. Stack of placings at blacktype level in her 12 start career, including last start a fortnight back in the Belmont Oaks when a solid second to the well above average filly Chantrea. She’s deserving of a Stakes win and I think she gets a great chance against these.
2 Eurasia (Bet Now: $16.00) is a handy three year old for Steve Wolfe that should be fine at 2200m. He contested the Aquanita Stakes two weeks ago and stuck to the task really gamely in defeat when fourth to Cousin Ivan, beaten just over a length. Off that run, 2200m should be okay for him and this is a very winnable race.
Race 6. Happy Birthday Mick Graves Handicap 1600m
Think with clear air this time around, 6 Truly Great (Bet Now: $4.40) can return into the winners list. He resumed over 1300m here two weeks ago when a notable drifter in betting and the market got it right. He wasn’t going to win, but got squeezed up late when building the revs and should have finished closer. Fitter and up to the mile, with clear air, he can bounce back.
11 Sowar (Bet Now: $9.00) has his share of talent for the Steve Wolfe team. He resumed over 1300m here when getting three wide cover and peeled wider into clear air. Took a little while to get into his work but was very good late, looking like a horse that wants further, which he gets here, and has plenty of upside to come.
2 Aconite (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Brett Pope trained mare that has come back in super order. Both runs back from a break have come at Pinjarra. Didn’t have much luck over 1200m before stepping up to 1400m where Hannah Fitzgerald put the mare into a sweet spot before getting going on the turn to build the revs and she was strong to the line in winning. Pateman on now, hard fit, up to the mile, likeable for sure.
Race 7. Belmont Park Book A Day Handicap 1600m
5 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $1.70) looks the good thing on the program. Adam Durrant trained four year old that lacked race fitness when pipped fresh by Mankind before stepping up to 1400m and bumping into a good one, a really good one, in Showmanship. He’ll eat up the mile here you would assume despite being untried and is clearly the one to beat.
1 Wrinkly (Bet Now: $7.00) will make sure this is a truly run mile. He’s a beauty for Neville Parnham that puts himself on speed and busts a gut every time he steps out. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago when taking a trail behind the speed and stuck on well behind Showmanship. Up to the mile, think they’ll be aggressive and give them something to chase.
9 Jeraft (Bet Now: $19.00) gets one more chance for me. Been on him his past couple and gee he let me down last time out. I was really confident he would go close but was one of the first off the bit and couldn’t pick up. His record at Belmont is starting to read quite poor now, but I think he gets one last chance against these.
Race 8. Schweppes Handicap 1200m
I think 1 Flow (Bet Now: $26.00) is a massive price here. He ran in the Beaufine last Saturday over 1000m and while he was never going to win, I think he should have finished a bit closer. Got held up the last 150m or so and went untested from that point on. Has only done the seven day back up once for the stable, which came during the Summer Carnival last year when a close up second in the Carbine Club on Railway Day, and up to 1200m here I do like. Wet track no issue.
I had enough of 8 Massimo (Bet Now: $2.10) but credit to him, he ran a blinder last Saturday here. Looked all over a winner but was nabbed near the peg by a Stakes class horse in Windstorm. He just has to repeat that effort to be winning here. But, he’s had six runs this time in for no wins, so he’s bee frustrating from a betting perspective.
Fascinating to see how 6 Crystal Spirit (Bet Now: $6.50) goes. Son of Bel Esprit for Chris Gangemi that hasn’t raced since September 2018 when winning the third of his three wins on the bounce over this track/distance. At the time, he looked headed for Stakes company, but has clearly had his issues. Trials have been solid and he’s a big market watch, especially with this stable.
Race 9. Furphy Handicap 1300m
5 Wine Night (Bet Now: $3.20) is a daughter of Playing God for the Justine Erkelens team that ran over 1000m here a fortnight back where she had the suck run in behind the speed and got the split to win, but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to We’ve Got Dreams. Third up now, so should be close to peak fitness.
2 Zephyr Queen (Bet Now: $4.40) is a beauty for Jim Taylor that will likely lead this field up and give a stack of cheek from the front, which is what she did three weeks ago over 1400m and looked the winner for a long way, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Position Of Power. Back to 1300m I like and the claim for Azzopardi certainly helps.
13 I’m Icey13 I’m Icey (Bet Now: $16.00) wins, but for multiples, would certainly include. Ran over 1200m here last Saturday when keen on speed yet kept chipping away when fourth to the above average Levitate. Was a few weeks between runs so you’d like to think there is room for improvement and draws soft. Leading contender.
Race 10. Crown Perth Handicap 1000m
9 Long Beach (Bet Now: $2.30) looks very much above average for the Williams camp. A bit of Pike magic produced a stunning win first up over 1200m here two weeks ago, slicing his way through the field to get up and win in the last couple of strides. His record does suggest he’s most effective early on in a prep. Will need luck again but is hard to beat.
6 Shinju (Bet Now: $6.50) is a son of Written Tycoon for the Chris Gangemi team that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since Feb 22 at Ascot when a narrow but strong winner, beating the then boom mare This’ll Testya. Form out of that race has been a tad suspect, but two trials leading in have been good and draws well I think.
4 Danny George (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Brett Pope trained gelding that resumes. This five year old last raced on March 14 over 1400m at Ascot when okay late from the back behind Festival Miss. Two trials leading in have been pretty good and he is a horse who flies fresh. Can see him sitting back off a fast speed and launching at them late.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Not To Be Mist
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 8 Heaven’s Gift
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Flow
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5
Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 2, 5, 11, 13
Leg Four: 4, 6, 9, 15
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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