18/5/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, The Goodwood day

The Adelaide Racing Carnival concludes this Saturday at Morphettville, headlined by the feature of the entire Carnival, the Goodwood (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres from the 1200m-600m; Out six metres for the remainder.

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7 Balaabel (Bet Now: $2.80) for me. Was really keen on her when she debuted in the Queen Adelaide two weeks ago over 1050m here but probably just found it a bit sharp at start one against some proven and race fit gallopers. Still did a very good job to close off and run second to Absolute Flirt. Has the run under the belt, 1200m looks ideal…have to butter up on her.

3 Absolute Flirt (Bet Now: $2.40) is 2/2 this time in for the Danny O’Brien stable. Impressive first up winner at Sandown before going to the Queen Adelaide where she was confidently ridden by an in form Olly and she had the momentum in the straight to get the job done over Balaabel. Off the two runs though, 1200m is a query, plus not as much upside, but she’s hard fit/in form.

4 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $7.00) has been up forever it seems but gee she’s racing consistently. She comes through the Queen Adelaide where I thought Pike gave her every chance in the run but she just wasn’t good enough when third to Absolute Flirt. I think 1200m will suit her, and if she can get cover and a drag into the straight, I think she’ll be more effective and will be a threat.

She’s just about the good thing of the day is 1 Clearly (Bet Now: $2.80). Former French mare who has had two runs in Australia for Archie Alexander and has been really good each time she has stepped out. Closed off well first up at Caulfield before going to the Queen Of The South here two weeks ago and for mine, she should have won. Just badly held up when wanting to build momentum. Got clear and surged late. 2000m should be perfect, third up from a spell…normal luck and she’s the winner.

Mick Kent loves to target a mares race so giving 5 Jungle Fish (Bet Now: $13.00) respect. Lumped 61.5kg last Wednesday at Sandown when battling away well despite never really being a threat behind impressive winner Vanuatu. She was six weeks between runs that day, so clearly been set up for this race, gets right down in the weights and up to 2000m, she’s likeable.

8 Indrabeel (Bet Now: $18.00) deserves a crack at this kind of race. She’s 2/2 this time in for the Tony McEvoy stable, winning impressively first up at Gawler on Anzac Day before going to Balaklava last Wednesday where she did look in a bit of trouble but once Barend Vorster got stuck in she responded and put them away impressively. 2000m should be fine, she’s got upside, timing, in the right stable and is a mare in form.

3 Chequered Flag (Bet Now: $13.00) is likely using this as a tick over run for the feature jumps races on the horizon, but bear in mind despite being, IMO, the best hurdler in Australia, he’s very capable on the flat. He was good without much luck first up at Mornington behind Steel Prince before going to the Champion Novice Hurdle during the Warrnambool Carnival where he absolutely bolted in. He’s a star hurdler, but his flat deeds are good enough to be beating these.

5 Valac (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained stayer who is yet to put a win on the board this time in but he’s racing quite consistently and isn’t far off a win. He ran over 2500m at Flemington on Anzac Day where I thought young Lewis German gave him every chance near the speed but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Observational. He’ll land near the front here and give his all again. Just not sure he’s got the class to put them away, but time will tell.

2 Olympic Academy (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Grant Young trained war horse who has been in work since Moses parted the sea, but he’s racing okay. Won well here two weeks ago before racing in the Mount Gambier Cup last Friday where he just found the sticky track not to his liking when down the track behind Golden Authority. Firmer footing here will suit and likes racing here.

I think up to 2500m will really suit the Hayes/Dabernig trained 7 Dark Confidant (Bet Now: $19.00). She took on the older horses over 2000m under the lights at Cranbourne last time out where she got a mile off them in the run but finished off with real purpose to just miss out on the win when second to Moss ‘N’ Bolt. Back to her own age/sex and is racing as if 2500m will be ideal.

16 Alaskan Honey (Bet Now: $27.00) is a progressive filly for Mick Kent that’s heading in the right direction and I don’t think 2500m at this level will be an issue for her. Got the maiden win two back at Sale before going to the 2400m at Caulfield when back and never really in the hunt but far from disgraced behind Secret Blaze. Stable could have easily gone down the SA Oaks path, but probably outclassed, so like her here and is a key threat.

9 Miss Five Hundred (Bet Now: $19.00) is one who could surprise here. Peter Gelagotis trains this filly, who missed out on a start in the Oaks, so she ran over 2000m against the older horses and was okay without setting the world on fire behind Olympic Academy. She’s not really a filly who likes to get her toe in it seems, so a dry track will be to her liking, as will returning to her own age/sex.

Hoping 6 Hussybay (Bet Now: $13.00) can settle a bit closer in the run. Impressive winner of the City Of Adelaide two back on the Parks track before backing up a week later at this track/distance where he just got too far back in the run in a race totally dominated by those on speed. He can sit more handy if required and now he’s hard fit, so happy to give him another chance.

9 Waging War (Bet Now: $8.00) is a few weeks between runs for the Macdonald/Gluyas stable after racing in the VOBIS Gold Mile at Caulfield last time out where not much went right for her, mainly with the stop/start scenario, which doesn’t suit her, and given that was her first run in a month, she might have just needed the run. Back home now, she’ll take some beating.

8 All Too Huiying (Bet Now: $21.00) just has to tick the Stakes class box and he’ll take some running down. Phillip Stokes has done a pretty good job with this bloke and thought a lovely front running steer from John Allen got him the win last time out over 1800m at Sandown, but was out of petrol tickets late, which leaves me with doubts at him at that sort of trip, so like him back to the mile.

6 Nariko (Bet Now: $8.50) on top. This mare had trialled well prior to resuming down the Flemington straight where she was near the speed throughout, near the outside rail, which is usually the A1 ground for straight racing. Was there to win but I reckon condition just gave way late. This does look a real target race for her and did run well during the Spring. Hard to beat.

2 Amberdi (Bet Now: $10.00) is very likeable here. Sue Jaensch trains this quality mare, who ran in the Irwin over 1100m here a fortnight ago where she just got too far back in the run but made up good ground to run fourth to Despatch, who will go around in the Goodwood as a leading contender, so I think the form there isn’t too bad, and now back to mares grade, she does appeal.

4 Split Lip (Bet Now: $12.00) is on the seven day back up for the Will Clarken stable after winning at this track/distance last Saturday and I thought the win was outstanding albeit the depth wasn’t strong. She was off the bit a fair way out given the hot tempo and was entitled to probably weaken late, but she was the opposite. She surged and nailed Easy Beast on the peg. Like that the stable back her up straight away and at her best, she is a Stakes class mare.

If the track is dry, 2 Spright (Bet Now: $3.90) is better than these. That turn of foot she has is far superior to anything engaged here and it’ll just about win her another major having won the Sangster last time out with that turn of foot coming to the fore late where she looked in a nasty spot, a fair way off them on the turn. Just hope the weather forecast, which says it will be fine weather, is indeed correct.

8 Cool Passion (Bet Now: $6.00) is a clear threat. I think in order for her to turn the tables on Spright, she’ll hope that this turns into a hotly run 1200m race and hopefully steal a break on the mare that beat her in the Sangster. Looked home when Vorster asked for an effort but Spright sprouted wings late to get the win. Off that, can’t see her turning the tables, but she does get the barrier draw advantage and a weight pull.

1 Booker (Bet Now: $10.00) should be respected. This mare got her Group l win in the Autumn when winning the Oakleigh Plate first up, beating home Spright, before going to the Newmarket where she was far from disgraced behind Sunlight. Been spelled with this race as a target. Has class, draws to get good cover and launch. Can she go with Spright? Not sure, but time will tell.

One last chance for 12 Private Lounge (Bet Now: $4.50). Tempo clearly against her two back here behind Scottish Rogue before going to the Parks track where I don’t think the tight track was alley but she was far from disgraced behind Artie Dee Two. Back to 1200m and back on a bigger track, hoping she can sit off a good speed, get to the outside and let down, because I think she’s indeed going well enough to win.

9 Extreme Thrill (Bet Now: $7.00) is in a real purple patch at the moment for the Francis/Kent stable. This gelding has won his past two, the latest coming at Gawler on Anzac Day when finishing best over a well performed filly in Be My Star. Jamie Kah jumps on from a good draw, and with a stack of speed in front, can see him getting back and launching at them late.

Really interesting runner is 18 Diamond Tycoon (Bet Now: $31.00), a former Tony McEvoy mare that is now with the Macdonald/Gluyas stable. This mare can sprint well fresh and her April 30 jumpout here was very good, especially late when presented clear air, working to the line strongly. May want 1400m, but if the speed is on, look for her to be working home strong at the end.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Clearly

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Spright

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Dark Confidant

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 6, 8, 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 2, 9, 12, 15, 18

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