18/2/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, with champion sprinter Nature Strip odds on in the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Good test here for 12 Wishlor Lass (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but beware the unbeaten horse and she gets J Kah on. 3/3 to start her career, winning at Sandown on Australia Day where she was there to be beaten but she kept finding and in the end, drew clear late and was dominant in a sharp effort. Good test here, but she is a mare on the up who lobs into the dream spot and is the one to beat for mine.

The jury is somewhat out on how well 11 So You See (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is going, but she does have the quality to give her another look. This mare ran behind Glory Daze at Sandown and was pretty plain I thought after getting a fair way back in the run, failing to make up any real headway, finishing down the track. Reckon the big track and back to 1600m, firmer footing, she can certainly bounce back.

2 Lyrical Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness for Phillip Stokes. He ran over the mile at The Valley three weeks back and was good late from near last behind Rambler Rebel, beaten just under three lengths. J Mott is back aboard and although drawn tricky, he has upside, likes Flemington and will be strong at the end. Definite winning chance.

4 Queen Air (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly I have time for and she has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Oaks placegetter from the Spring that resumed in a 1300m maiden at Warrnambool where she looked a moral on paper and she was ridden like that by Fry, leading throughout and giving them a spanking. Has versatility re racing pattern, off a win, strong late, stable flying, leading contender.

5 Climbing Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks one of the hardest to beat. Phillip Stokes trained filly that resumed in the Manfred at Sandown and I thought she was very good from the back, clocking good late splits behind Jacquinot. Back to Fillies grade and with the run under the belt, she has the upside and quality to prove hard to beat against this lot, especially getting to 1400m and the big track.

1 See You In Heaven (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality filly for Team Jolly that is three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Morphettville when first up in the Durbridge and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off, run down late by a hard fit and in form veteran in Shamino. Fitter and up to 1400m, astute camp, she’ll take beating in what looks a winnable race.

2 Amur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) may find these a tad sharp early but I have no doubt he will be one of the strongest late and does get J Mac aboard. 2/2 to start his career, both wins coming at The Valley where he hasn’t looked the greatest around the tight track but balanced up in the straight and drove hard to win each time. Fast run 1100m, I think he’ll be sitting around midfield and launching late.

4 Scorsese (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a juvenile with good talent. Market specked him at odds when debuting in the Blue Diamond Preview and I thought he did more than enough, finishing off the race with real purpose late in the piece when third to all the way winner The Instructor. Does hold a nomination for the Blue Diamond so needs to win to secure a start and he’s in the right camp.

1 Krakarib (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another chance. He was a notable drifter in betting when resuming in the Blue Diamond Preview and the market got it spot on as he sat on speed and seemed to go well but he found nothing in the straight and was on the plain side behind The Instructor. If he runs up to the win from the Spring, he’s certainly good enough to take this out.

8 Timour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 2000m. Did more than enough fresh here behind Beltoro before going to Sandown where he failed to fire and was on the plain side behind Glory Daze. He is a stayer so he should appreciate the rise to 2000m and does have the Waller polish, so I wouldn’t be totally dismissing him, and I think a lead, potentially, is that J Mac rides.

4 Nobel Heights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) likely has eyes on the Adelaide Cup maybe? Archie Alexander trained gelding that hasn’t raced since New Years Day in the Bagot where he was given every chance but couldn’t quite finish it off, running second to San Huberto. 2000m is a tad on the short side for him, but has residual fitness and the runs on the board to command respect.

7 Hasseltoff (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been in work a while but is seemingly holding his form pretty well. He ran two weeks ago over 1700m at Sandown where he got a fair way back in the run and did make some headway but was never a threat behind Glory Daze. I do think getting back to Flemington is a big tick for him and 2000m should be okay. Hard to beat I’d suggest.

4 Annavisto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a bomb fresh mare for the Price/Kent camp that is first up and looks like she is ready to rock and roll. She dodged the Spring to be kept on ice for the Autumn, having not raced since a down the track effort in the Tatts Tiara during the Brisbane Winter. Jumped out well but to my eye, she trialled outstanding last Monday at Cranbourne. Think she is the straight bat option.

3 Excelida (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a great record at the Flemington 1400m and second up from a break, she should just about be ready to go. Resumed two weeks ago in the Bellmaine at Sandown where the race shape wasn’t really to her liking but I liked the way she stuck on and found the line okay in defeat behind Wrote To Arataki. Tempo should be more genuine this time around and is much better suited at Flemington.

7 Vespertine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win again. Race shape was clearly against her in the Standish two back before going to the Bellmaine where the tempo again wasn’t to her liking but she worked home well enough in defeat I thought behind the in form Wrote To Arataki. Has a good record at Flemington and I reckon with a more positive steer, she can take this out.

I am intrigued to see how 5 Elliptical (Bet Now:  $SP.00) goes fresh for Team Freedman. He hasn’t raced since the Spring Champion where he looked all over a winner when Shinn pushed the button but couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by Sharp N Smart. He looked like a camel in his recent jumpout, but the thing to take note is that Blinkers weren’t on and he’s clearly a better horse with them on.

4 Bank Maur (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading contenders. Richard Laming trained three year old that resumed in the Manfred on Australia Day where he kept finding the line and just missed out on the win, beaten a lip by Jacquinot, and we know what he did last Saturday. He showed in the Spring he can measure up against the big boys and the first up run indicates he’s come back well. Hard to beat.

12 Angry Skies (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run a much improved race. Team Hayes trains this three year old, who resumed in the Manfred where he was back near last in a race not suited to backmarkers, so forgive and forget he went around behind Jacquinot. He can settle much closer in the run this time around and for mine, he has the quality to measure up.

It’s hard to get away from the champ that is 1 Nature Strip (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He did Australia proud at Royal Ascot when spanking them in the King’s Stand but that took it out of him in the Spring when run down in The Everest and Champions Sprint. Been given a good break for this prep and he has sizzled in both a Warwick Farm trial and Flemington jumpout. If he brings his best, which it looks like he will, he just wins.

9 Buenos Noches (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality colt for Matty Smith that resumes. He did an excellent job in the Spring, headlined by placings really. Beaten a lip by Giga Kick in the Danehill before going to the Coolmore where he ran a ripping third to star filly In Secret. He’s had two trials and a gallop between races to get ready for the return, and with upside/progression, he clearly rates highly.

7 September Run (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a classy mare for Chris Waller that resumes. She has a fab record down the straight and has run well in this race previously. Only the two run Spring prep, both at The Valley in the Moir and Manikato, the latter seeing her run a strong fourth to Bella Nipotina. She’ll likely be spotting them a start but will be one of the strongest at the end.

3 Scallopini (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for me. O’Dea/Hoysted trained gelding that resumed in The Syndicate on Magic Millions Day at the Gold Coast where he got back in the run and spotted those in front a decent start. He worked home well but was never really a threat when third to Centrefire. Good second up record and like him up to 1400m on the bigger track. Tricky race, but he’ll do me.

4 Uncle Bryn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality galloper for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumes. He had a busy Spring prep, where he was potentially a Caulfield Cup horse, but ended up being a miler, spanking them in the Cranbourne Cup to end the prep on a high. Jumpout/trial work has been more than encouraging and first up at 1400m on the big track, he looks set up to run very well.

12 Umgawa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect in a race like this. Ran on Australia Day in the John Dillon where he had the sweet trip in transit behind the speed and was there to win but couldn’t quite get there when fourth to Gentleman Roy, beaten just over two lengths. He’s been up a little while but is racing well and does have fitness on his side compared to most.

10 D’Jumbuck (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a few weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington where he got into a sweet spot near the speed and when clicked up by Shinn, he went through his gears nicely and drew clear late to win well. Kept on ice with this race in mind, proven at the track, he rates highly.

5 Sacred Palace (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. I was keen on him at The Valley last time and the ride from Olly was a peach, hunting up and holding a forward spot. He got out and was there to beat Dance To Dubai but on the line was safely held. Hard fit now and the bigger track, he is one of the leading chances.

9 Sessions Road (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Team Hawkes. Thought he did more than enough fresh at Sandown behind On The Lead before going to Sale where he was run off his legs but liked the way he finished his race off when fourth to Jungle Jim, who produce sustained speed from the front and was miles too good. Likely will be spotting them a start but dangerous if he’s within range.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Nature Strip

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Annavisto

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 8 Timour

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 11, 12, 14

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 12

Leg Four: 3, 5, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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