18/1/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill

A nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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7 Cellsabeel (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) is a big watch here. Maher/Eustace trained filly that debuted in the Golden Gift where physically, she looked the pick of the bunch, but mentally wasn’t there and that’s how she raced, sitting back near last doing a bit wrong but loved the way she attacked the line when balanced up. Freshened up and the trials leading in have been great.

2 Beyliks (Bet Now: $2.80 TOP ODDS) is a quality colt for James Cummings that resumes. She hasn’t raced since debuting in the Breeders Plate when beaten by Global Quest but was far from disgraced in placing. Been given a good break with the Blue Diamond/Slipper in mind and his recent Rosehill trial was outstanding to the eye.

1 Return With Honour (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) had trialled like a star prior to debuting at Randwick where he showed great early toe to lead and from there, it was a rather painless watch if you were on in an impressive debut win. Did he beat much? Probably not, but he looks a smart colt and the mare’s progeny has produced wet trackers. He isn’t a long shot. Just can’t make a case for anything else.

If this track is genuinely wet, which the forecast says it should be, then I think 8 Who’s Shout (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) is one of the better gambles on the card. Loved the first up win at Canberra before going to the Kenso Highway two weeks ago where he worked home strongly and just missed out in a three way go for third. He loves a track with give in it and since the blinkers have gone on, I reckon he’s racing at a better level compared to last prep.

5 Sennacherib (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) will be the horse many will fancy given how unlucky he was in the Highway two weeks ago. It was pretty much a barrier trial for him, getting no room at all in the straight and it was a rather ugly watch if you were on. Lately I’ve found that those that have been stiff not to win have raced since and gone poorly eg Alternative Facts and Word For Word. Can win, but couldn’t back.

12 Refire (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS)…has he turned the corner for Danny Williams? Has promised to be a Highway horse for some time but has struggled, but this prep he looks to be going well. Won two back at Albury before closing off strongly at Wagga last time in a race which had depth to it. Has run well on wet ground before and will be strong at the end of 1500m.

Going with 6 Switched (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS). Talented filly for Brad Widdup who is suited to 1100m from 1200m, the distance of her last run three weeks ago when a fighting second to Aquitaine in a very game effort. Two runs on wet ground have seen her place behind two quality fillies, namely Funstar. Lands on speed and will be tough to run down.

Have to give serious respect 1 Lashes (Bet Now: $1.70 TOP ODDS). Outstanding return from her two weeks back on the Kenso and it was the first time in her career that they rode her properly cold off the speed, and it paid off, because they went quick in front, Collett got into clear air with her and she just dashed right away. Want to see her do it again before diving into her as a betting proposition.

5 Echo Gem (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a WaterBott mare that is three weeks between runs since contesting the Nudgee at Eagle Farm in what was a brutally run affair and she couldn’t keep up with the leaders and was outclassed in the end behind Tahitian Dancer. This looks more her level and from the gate, she either leads or box seats behind Switched. Tick over trial since as well was solid enough.

7 Julian Rock (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS)…what do we do with him? He was going like Winx at the top of the straight on the course proper on Boxing Day at Randwick. It was just a matter of pressing the button, which Chris Williams did, and the gelding bolted up. He’s been hit and miss since coming to Australia but a repeat of last start will see him go very close.

6 Stella Sea Sun (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is going to be popular with most and hard to argue against. Resumed over 1200m at Randwick three weeks ago and she copped severe interference in the straight but still kept on and was really good in defeat when fourth to Aquitaine. Form out of that has been great, she gets J Mac on, parks near the speed and her efforts on wet ground in the past have been excellent.

4 Manhattan Mist (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1350m. Kim Waugh trains this gelding, who resumed over 1200m at Randwick three weeks ago when just not really suited by the stop/start tempo of the race but stuck to the task pretty well in defeat behind Embracer. Form at 1400-1500m doesn’t read too bad and is 2/4 second up, so an improved showing is on the cards.

Potentially going off in the holster one run too early, but I’m with 10 Fasano (Bet Now: $13.00), a talented three year old for David Payne who returns as a gelding. You go back through his Spring form. He was taking the best middle distance three three year olds we’ve got and was far from disgraced, especially early on in the prep, notably first up when bolting up on a wet track. Resumes here and his two trials have been great. If he’s right to go, I think he’s the one.

8 Aim For Perfection (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Mark Newnham trained mare that was hard in the market when resuming on Boxing Day at Randwick but after missing the kick, that sealed her fate, closing off late behind Adelong. Blinkers come off so hopefully she jumps clean this time around and up to 1300m looks a big tick.

6 Unguarded (Bet Now: $8.00) is ticking along really nicely for the Freedman camp and is a key chance. Ran at Randwick on Boxing Day and while she was clearly no match for the above average Adelong, she stuck to the task pretty well and was good in defeat in running second. Hard fit now and the give in the track should be perfect.

Could be stupidity. Have to wait and see, but old mate 9 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $16.00) is on top for me. I’m going his way because I think he is a horse who races best when there is give in the track, and you have to go back to August to when he last saw that, seeing him place to The Party Girl, which reads well. Recent form has been so so but back on a wet track, I think he can improve out of sight.

4 Tony’s Reward (Bet Now: $4.80) is a son of Reward For Effort for Bjorn Baker who is racing really well at the moment. Little to no luck two back behind The Party Girl before placing behind Embracer and Superium at Randwick three weeks ago when having his chance but that form clearly reads well for this. Just unsure how he’ll be on wet ground.

Kevin Hickmott will be hoping the forecast is right and we get a good hit of rain because 10 High Cost (Bet Now: $41.00) will be a definite contender on rain affected ground. Led last week at Doomben and tried hard when third to Winter Passage, who is flying and a proven Saturday performer in Brisbane, so that form reads well enough and this horse does like a track with give in it.

6 Embracer (Bet Now: $3.20) is a smart, speedy customer for the WaterBott team that comes here three weeks between runs since scoring an all the way win at Randwick, with Tommy really seizing the initiative to lead and that won him the race, beating home a good one in Superium. Has since trialled and loved the way he went there in winning. Think his best chance of winning will be leading/box seating off a fast speed and being strong late.

One soft trial leading in is the knock for quality mare 2 Laburnum (Bet Now: $7.00), but it was a very impressive trial and she’d be clearly on top if this was a dry track. Resumes after a two run Spring prep, the second run seeing her place in the Mona Lisa. The trial win was outstanding, looks to have come back well…just not sure about the 1100m on wet ground set up off one trial.

8 River Bird (Bet Now: $8.00) is an Epaulette mare for Jason Coyle that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since July 27 over 1350m here when a solid fourth to the Stakes performed Foxy Housewife. Tends to save her best for Rosehill, her two trials leading in have been quite good and she is a mare who loves to get her toe in, so the forecast for rain is perfect.

I am doing this meeting based on a genuine wet track and with that in mind, I think 4 Word For Word (Bet Now: $4.00) is the best on the program IMO. On face value, yes she’s been disappointing and let the punters down, but I’m marking her down as a wet tracker, as we saw during the Winter with excellent performances behind quality types. J Mac on, I hope they roll forward and get the drag over via Dylan’s Romance/Mr Dependable and get the A1 run in transit. If she can’t win here, then it’s a life ban.

11 Birth Of Venus (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Chris Waller mare who should really be suited up to 2000m. She was unwanted in betting when racing over 1800m on New Years Day but I liked the way she found the line in defeat when second to Killer Instinct. Got plenty of upside left in the tank one would assume and big tick for her is getting to 2000m.

Fitter with upside are two ticks for the Chris Waller trained 9 Raqeeq (Bet Now: $18.00), who lacked a turn of foot when racing over 1800m at Randwick three weeks ago but stayed on and was actually pretty good late when a close up fifth to impressive winner Berdibek. Think he’s going well this bloke and can run a cheeky race at odds.

8 Bandersnatch (Bet Now: $1.60) is still doing a bit wrong for Gerald Ryan but clearly has a good engine under the hood. Just wasn’t 100% tractable three weeks ago at Randwick when attempting to lead all the way, which allowed Leviathan to build momentum and got past him, but he didn’t turn it up when headed. If he puts it all together, can win this.

9 Welsh Legend (Bet Now: $3.90) is a quality mare for Chris Waller that resumes, having not raced since the QLD Oaks when doing work on speed and fighting on strongly to finish a couple of lengths off Winning Ways. Liked the way she found the line in a trial here earlier this week and interesting she races straight away a few days later. Watch the market.

1 Notio (Bet Now: $15.00) could be a big improver getting his toe into the ground. He’s been going okay this time in for Team Hawkes, with his latest run being two weeks ago behind Mercurial Lad where he had the soft run from the inside gate but couldn’t get into the race. Better suited here I feel and his wet track stats read well enough for this kind of race.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Word For Word

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Julian Rock

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 8 Who’s Shout

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10

Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 8

Leg Three: 4

Leg Four: 1, 4, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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