Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:25) : TAB Handicap 1350m:
Back Me: 2 Gaulois (Bet Now: $2.30) had good market support when racing last Wednesday at Canterbury where he sat parked outside a slow tempo and looked to travel well but just couldn’t match the sprint of the leader/winner Envy Of All. Should come right on from that and is a leading contender here for sure.
Big Danger: 9 Momentum To Win (Bet Now: $17.00) is a nice looking gelding for the David Payne yard who resumed a couple of Wednesdays at Warwick Farm where he got a bit held up between runners but when he did get clear, I really liked the way he finished off when a close up fifth to I Am Excited. That looks good form for this and rates highly up to 1350m.
Long Shot: 5 Arrestar (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Matty Dunn trained youngster who could be an improver here at odds. Forget he went around three weeks ago at Randwick given he was three and four wide no cover for the trip and rightfully dropped out to finish near last behind Kementari. Run prior he was good behind a subsequent multiple Stakes winner in Pardoe.
Race Two (12:00) : ATC Handicap (73) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 High Mist (Bet Now: $6.25) comes back to his own age after taking on the older horses in both runs this time in. Really liked his effort three weeks back at Randwick, closing off from behind them when fourth to the talented galloper Magical Stance. Three year olds against older horses and performing well is always a big tick.
Big Danger: 5 Arbeitsam (Bet Now: $2.20) had really confident market support when resuming over 1200m here two weeks ago where he led at a decent clip and kicked strongly throughout in the straight, but just got beat by race fitness when a narrow second to Test The World. Has the run under the belt now, maps well and should take some beating.
Long Shot: 6 Samadoubt (Bet Now: $13.00) looks ready to tackle the Saturday grade again after racing at Canterbury last week where I thought he was very good in defeat. Got a bit lost around the turn and in the early part of the straight but once he balanced up, he really attacked the line. Confident he can measure up back up to 1400m.
Race Three (12:35) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1500m:
Back Me: Sticking solid with 2 Zamex (Bet Now: $2.40). Was all over him a fortnight back in a Highway here and he didn’t miss the start too bad, which you knew would see him go close to winning, and in the end, he won with a bit in reserve. Has subsequent Stakes form around him from this prep, so I see no reason to jump off.
Big Danger: 4 Mister Marmalade (Bet Now: $6.00) was confidently backed to win when resuming in the Highway won by Zamex two weeks ago, and it was just a strange right I thought by Panya. Got rolling a fair way out, running some brutal splits, and that left the horse gassed 200m out. Will the horse bounce off that or sook up? Market will be the guide.
Long Shot: 9 O’Lordy (Bet Now: $11.00) strung together two sharp wins to kick off the prep, including a Highway win over 1200m here, before going to a 1500m Highway here where nothing really went right for him behind Hay Now. Better than that, and I think drawn wide will aid his winning claims.
Race Four (13:10) : Pro Rata ATC Membership On Sale Sprint (85) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Feelin The Love (Bet Now: $9.50) gets the nod for me here in a pretty weak/even mares race. She had really good support at odds when racing at Randwick three weeks back and it was somewhat justified as she got back and worked home strongly to run third to In Times Of War, who ran well last weekend. That reads well for this and stable is flying.
Big Danger: 12 Validate (Bet Now: $6.50) is a mare in ripping form at the moment for the Kim Waugh. She sat wide no cover throughout last time out in a Class 2 at Gosford but you had to like the way she dashed and put the field away quite comfortably. Harder here, but she seems much stronger this campaign and is a live threat.
Long Shot: 8 Foreign Affair (Bet Now: $9.00) is the very interesting runner here. Henry Dwyer trained mare that comes here off the back of a really good effort a fortnight back over 1200m at the Valley where she sat near the speed and stuck on well in defeat when third to the Stakes performed Whistle Baby. She had market support that day too, so respect that here in the small field here with Avdulla steering.
Race Five (13:45) : TAB Rewards Handicap (85) 1500m:
Back Me: 4 Liapari (Bet Now: $6.50) is a handy gelding for the Chris Waller yard who just missed out on the win first up at Hawkesbury before racing at this track/distance where he got too far back in the run and got held up but was good late behind stablemate Invinzabeel. He finds a very winnable race here. Just needs clear running.
Big Danger: 9 Magical Stance (Bet Now: $8.50) had some market support at odds when resuming over 1400m at Randwick three weeks back and that support was justified when he showed a lovely turn of foot to dash to the leader and eventually wearing him down. Will only improve that you’d suspect and up to 1500m is a big tick.
Long Shot: 3 Signposted (Bet Now: $15.00) is another that is three weeks between runs. He comes back to 1500m after racing over the Randwick mile where he led at a decent clip and gave a good kick but was outgunned the final furlong. Would prefer him at Randwick, but he maps well here and being third up he should be close to peak fitness.
Race Six (14:25) : Kensei Handicap 2000m:
Back Me: 10 Montauk (Bet Now: $7.50) is a gelding who is just racing so well at the moment but has had no luck at his past couple, both coming here. First of those was at 2000m when badly held up behind Broadside before dropping back to 1800m where he was again held up but good late behind Supply And Demand. Back up to 2000m looks a big positive and rates as one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 7 Alegria (Bet Now: $7.50) comes through the Supply And Demand race here a fortnight back over 1800m where she chased hard from off the speed and nearly got there but had to settle for second to the Waterhouse/Bott mare. She will be better suited up in trip here, she has upside and a really good record at Rosehill.
Long Shot: I’m wary of the Victorian visitor 9 Araldo Junior (Bet Now: $51.00). Talented stayer for the Mike Moroney yard who comes from Melbourne where he had been struggling a bit for form, but his best effort did come recently on a heavy track in the Warrnambool Cup behind the dominant winner High Church. Back on a wet track here, he could be a big improver.
Race Seven (15:05) : Schweppes Handicap (85) 1100m:
Back Me: I think the old boy 2 Zin Zan Eddie (Bet Now: $21.00) can run a race here at odds. Resumed on a rock hard track over 1200m here a fortnight back and didn’t like it at all behind Firsthand. Much better when he gets his toe in, which is what will happen here, and he is well in at the weights after the claim.
Big Danger: 3 Badajoz (Bet Now: $4.20) hasn’t raced for three weeks since resuming over 1100m at Rosehill where he got off the pace in the run and tried hard but had to settle for second to the hard fit Kudero. That form held up in the Junes Stakes via The Monstar, and with this horse, he is best when his races are spaced, plus he handles all conditions.
Long Shot: 12 Magic Alibi (Bet Now: $6.00) is the big query. Handy mare for Gerald Ryan that is first up here without any trials, so how fit she is remains to be unknown, but she does have an excellent fresh record, winning two and placing in another from four outings. First up last prep she was a half length of Heavens Above. That reads so well for this.
Race Eight (15:45) : #theraces Handicap (78) 1800m:
Back Me: 12 Collateral (Bet Now: $6.50) on top for me here. Former Queenslander who has gone to a new level since linking with Bjorn Baker. Deserves a crack at Saturday grade after winning last Wednesday at Canterbury and while he didn’t beat much, he was dominant. Wide gate is good for him because he needs clear air. Hates being boxed in. The one for me.
Big Danger: 1 Multifacets (Bet Now: $9.50) steps up in trip after racing over the mile at Randwick three weeks back where he sat midfield in the run and couldn’t quite quicken well enough but I thought he stuck on pretty well in defeat behind stablemate So Willie. Not the best of records at Randwick, so back to Rosehill at 1800m and with fresh legs, he could be a big improver here.
Long Shot: 11 Brogue (Bet Now: $11.00) looks the knockout hope here at odds. Lightly raced gelding who comes here off the back of a last start second in the Nowra Cup where he sat on speed under Beany Panya and the five year old gave a good kick but Vain Elaine proved too good. Up in trip looks ideal, should lead and take some beating.
Race Nine (16:25) : Tab.com.au Handicap (78) 1350m:
Back Me: I think the Mexicans can get the win here via 14 Pakaya Prince (Bet Now: $6.00). John McArdle trained galloper who has been quite good this campaign, with the highlight being a strong win from off the pace during the Warrnambool Carnival. Avdulla takes the ride, he maps well, he’s tough and back to 1350m is a big tick, plus he loves a wet track.
Big Danger: 2 Invincible Knight (Bet Now: $6.00) can be a hit and miss galloper, but there was alot to like about his first up effort over 1200m here a fortnight back, ducking and weaving his way through the field for an eye catching fourth to Firsthand. He will only improve up to 1350m. The worry is that his second up efforts have been awful.
Long Shot: 10 Lay Down The Law (Bet Now: $26.00) is a greybeard at rising 10, but the old boy is racing as well as ever. He hasn’t raced since Anzac Day over 1400m at Randwick where he sat near the tempo and fought on strongly behind Imperator Augustus. Not the most reliable horse fresh, but comes to town off no trials, so I’d watch the market.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Collateral
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 High Mist
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Zin Zan Eddie
Have A Tip? – Post Your Tip in the Comment Section Below
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11, 12
Leg Four: 2, 6, 9, 10, 14
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