17/2/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Headquarters at Flemington this Sunday for Black Caviar Lightning Day, where Redzel is expected to kick off 2018 with a bang. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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1 Prairie Fire (Bet Now: $7.00 BOOSTED ODDS) looks a near good thing to my eye. Very good looking colt for Mick Price who debuted in the Chairmans at Caulfield where he got back of a slow-ish tempo but I loved the way he attacked the line when second to Ennis Hill. Wins this and he’s in the Blue Diamond. Wouldn’t be surprised if he did the double.

10 Pierro Belle (Bet Now: $4.20 BOOSTED ODDS) is a beautifully bred filly on debut for the Tony McEvoy team. This girl trialled on the Parks track a few weeks back and she could not have been more impressive in winning under Jamie Kah, sitting on speed before bounding clear without being extended. Not sure she can win but for mine, she is a massive watch because she too could do the Talindert/Blue Diamond double.

6 Roobeena (Bet Now: $17.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is a well bred filly for the Tony McEvoy team who did an excellent job here on debut on Cup Day behind Setsuna before resuming at Ballarat where the market said she had three legs and ran accordingly in a disappointing sixth. Convinced she is better than that, so I’ll give her another look.

Bludger of a race. No confidence but going with 3 Imperator Augustus (Bet Now: $3.60 BOOSTED ODDS). Darren Weir trains this bloke, who ran over 1850m at Kyneton a fortnight back and it was a peach from Brad Rawiller that got the horse home. Tucked in behind the speed, got the split at the right time and finished best. 2000m is a query, but he has a turn of foot. Most of these don’t have that.

2 Khutulun (Bet Now: $6.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is an absolute beauty for the Luke Oliver team. On the quick back up for the stable after winning over 1800m at Caulfield last Saturday where she chased hard all the way and eventually wore down Downhearted to win in the last stride. Has a great record at 2000m and gets in very well after the claim for Steph Thornton.

9 Midas Man (Bet Now: $17.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is absolutely flying at the moment for the Robert Kingston team. This bloke has won his past three, the latest over the 2040m at the Valley when worrying Big Pat’s Pontiac out of the win. Two runs at the trip for two wins, gets McEvoy on, maps okay and doesn’t find a strong race. Why not?

6 Sharing (Bet Now: $3.10 BOOSTED ODDS) is a mare that is racing in super form at the moment. Gave them an absolute galloping lesson here two back at the track/distance before going to Caulfield where she got back and worked home strongly to run second to Jester Halo. Flemington 1400m looks ideal and keen to butter up.

7 Bellaria (Bet Now: $11.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is a Darren Weir trained mare I have time for. Close up behind Runson at Caulfield two back before going to Sandown where she was really good odds and under Ethan Brown she scored a narrow but impressive win. Harder here, but always respect these Weir horses up in grade, especially in town.

5 Tykiato (Bet Now: $11.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is a mare for John Price who is racing really well at the moment. Just can’t quite crack it for a win. Comes through the Sale Quality last time out where I thought she was far from disgraced behind Leodoro. Back to her own sex and I think the Flemington 1400m will be right up her alley.

7 Kings Will Dream (Bet Now: $2.30 BOOSTED ODDS) looks beautifully place here by Darren Weir. Former Irish galloper who is two for two since coming to Australia, the latest win coming over 1400m at Ballarat where J Allen gave the horse a peach just off the pace and once he got clear air, it was game over. Very confident he can measure up and get the job done.

5 So Poysed (Bet Now: $7.50 BOOSTED ODDS) is a talented son of Sepoy for the in form Richard Laming yard who is racing in career best form at the moment and deserves a crack at this kind of race. Ran over the mile at the Valley last time out where I thought Melham gave him a peach and once he got clear air, he charged to the line and won with a bit in hand. Happy to give him a look.

2 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $18.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is a talented middle distance/stayer that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team. First Australian prep was a ripper, winning a couple of races on the bounce before a gallant over 2800m here on Cup Day. Jump out here last week was a good hit out and to my eye, he’s forward enough to run well fresh.

3 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $4.20) will love the drop back in depth here after contesting the Australia Stakes last time out at the Valley where WFA was really against him but I thought he more than held his own when fourth to Thronum. Coming out of that race was Brave Smash, who was one of the real hard luck stories in the CF Orr. That reads very well for this.

13 Handsome Thief (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Darren Weir trained galloper who looks extremely hard to beat here. Both runs this prep have come at Caulfield and both times he has had no luck at all. Resumed and was luckless when flashing home behind Nasdex before racing there a fortnight back and sitting back in a crawl but savaged the line behind Eurack. Normal luck here and he goes awfully close.

9 Fast Cash (Bet Now: $35.00) is a talented sprinter that resumes for the Wendy Kelly team. This bloke hasn’t raced since December at Caulfield when finishing down the track behind Crystal Dreamer, who was flying at the time. Trials/jump outs have been good to the eye and he can sprint well fresh. Horror record at Flemington the concern.

1 Aloisia (Bet Now: $3.70) does look the one to beat on class, but in terms of a price, I think wait and you’ll get better on race day. Thousand Guineas winner who looked a moral in the Oaks but a combo of perhaps being ridden upside down and playing up behind the gates were against her. Jump outs/trials have been good enough for me to suggest she has come back. She’ll give away a start, but we know she can savage the line.

2 Bring Me Roses (Bet Now: $7.50)  is a Tony McEvoy trained filly that is first up here. This girl hasn’t raced since the Oaks where she worked home with purpose from the back to run a mighty second to Pinot after flopping in the Wakeful on Derby Day. Her jump outs have been quite good and looks forward enough to run well first up.

11 Shagra (Bet Now: $34.00) is a talented filly for the David Briedoake team who resumed last Wednesday at Sandown where Williams had her tucked in behind the speed and she was never really clear of a pocket to build up proper momentum but I liked the way she stuck on. Flemington 1400m looks ideal and she does have that race fitness.

Happy to be each way with 7 Muraaqeb  Bet Now: $12.00). He was well backed late when resuming in the Manfred a fortnight back but he just got a bit too far back and was asked to make his run a fair way out but he closed off really nicely to run third to Cliff’s Edge. On paper, hard seeing him turning the tables. Just hoping Muraaqeb gets the drag up and launches.

1 Cliff’s Edge (Bet Now: $5.50) was such an impressive winner of the Manfred at Caulfield and it was a scary thought for his rivals because really, he is best suited at 1400m-2000m, so he’ll only improve off that outstanding win. Last time he has raced here, he ran a mighty sixth in the Emirates behind Tosen Stradom. That reads very well.

11 Island Missile (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Team Snowden trained gelding who was well backed when contesting the Gosford Guineas last time out and when he peeled out and let down, it looked game over, but he wanted to duck in and turn it up. He should have won but had to settle for second to Bella Martini. If he brings his best, he goes awfully close.

1 Redzel (Bet Now: $1.80) just picks himself and the $1.80 all in does look very good now. Best sprinter in Australia at the moment who had a wonderful Spring, headlined by wins in the Everest and then backing that up with an outstanding win in the Darley Classic. Trial last week was unbelievable and he looks ready to rumble.

Very interested that they have accepted with 10 Formality (Bet Now: $10.00). Very good filly that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Was planned to resume in the Oakleigh Plate but they instead resume here against the best sprinter in Australia. Her latest jump out was very good and she draws to stalk Redzel. Only threat to the star sprinter, apart from bad luck.

3 Hey Doc (Bet Now: $10.00) is a multiple Group l winner who resumes for the Tony McEvoy yard. They tried him out as a miler-2000m horse but after failures at the mile, they freshened up and went to the Manikato where he got a surprising yet impressive win, albeit aided by dodgy tactics from Luke Currie and a touch of bias. Another that goes well fresh and has jumped out well.

9 Pure Pride…(Bet Now: $12.00) she’s a bludger but this is easily the sort of race she could blow them away. She comes through the John Dillon at Caulfield where nothing went right for her, like in the Chester Manifold the start prior. Just a very slow tempo in front of her and she just couldn’t run on. Any injection of tempo here and she’ll go close. Convinced she is going well.

7 Chamois Road (Bet Now: $9.50) has been up longer than Ron Jeremy, but gee he is racing just so well. He comes through the John Dillon too and I thought his effort against the slow tempo was very good when fourth behind Tshahitsi. Good record at Flemington and with a couple of hard runs at 1400m under the belt, he should take some beating here.

3 Royal Rapture (Bet Now: $19.00) is a veteran for Darren Weir who I thought did a pretty good job in the John Dillon considering he was completely unwanted in betting and had to cover extra ground. Had every right to drop off but I thought he stuck on really well. Very good record at Flemington, he flies second up…gee I think he’ll run a beauty.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Ken’s Dream

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Redzel

VALUE: Race Seven Number 7 Muraaqeb

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 11, 13

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 7, 9, 16

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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