17/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Ted Van Heemst Stakes day

Maiden races on Saturday metro programs are dangerous but for the sake of a tip, on top is 2 Salary Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He debuted over 1300m at Northam where he attempted to lead throughout and tried his guts out from on speed but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Fearless Talk in a game debut. Should be able to land on speed from the inside gate and with a cheap furlong or two, he’ll take beating.

9 Feels Playful (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has good scope and the first up run was more than encouraging. Resumed over 1400m at Northam where she landed on speed and showed good fight in the straight, just missing out on a first up win when second to Rock My Way in a narrow finish. Think she will lob outside Salary Man and from there, I think that pair will dominate. Just a query on this girl being strong late given last time was a sit/sprint.

3 I Am King (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a knockout chance. He debuted in the same race Salary Man contested and I thought he was good from off the speed, just lacking the change up speed but was good to the line. Might want 1600m now, but the debut was solid enough to suggest he can run a positive race in town given the depth, as a whole, isn’t overly strong.

Tricky race for the juveniles. Landed with 9 More Special (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is on debut for Paul Jordan. She has won two trials to get ready for start one, each coming over 400m at Belmont and what I liked is that she has responded each time and found under pressure. Should press forward from the wide gate, land on speed and prove hard to run down for a stable that can get a juvenile to be ready early on.

6 Shell Bell (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the race experience and fitness under the belt to give this a shake. Attempted to lead throughout two weeks ago at this track/distance under Pike and she gave a strong kick but was nabbed near the peg by Home James in a driving go. She was a month between runs there so you’d think there is room for improvement and good lead that Pike sticks.

4 Jats (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Safeguard that is on debut for the Jason Pateman camp. He has had two trials to get ready for start one, the latest seeing him win at Lark Hill over 950m where he moved clear late near the speed and while the time was nothing flash, he moved pretty well to the eye. I’d watch the market because this stable don’t usually get them ready for a debut/first up performance.

1 Vane Tempest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could have been easily competitive in the Starstruck but I think the move to come here instead will work because she looks a moral. Should have won the Jungle Dawn two weeks ago but was unlucky in the straight. Was about to burst through but Buzzoom closed the gap, had momentum and that was the difference between winning and losing. Back to 1200m, 3kg claim, ideal map…good luck beating her.

5 I’m All Miss (Bet Now:  $SP.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but she is lightly raced and is showing promise. Game second fresh over 1200m at Belmont before going to 1000m at Pinjarra where she was well supported late and despite being under pressure early, she found plenty under pressure to drew clear late and win impressively. Stable finds Pike to steer and take out Vane Tempest, this race is thin.

8 Vogue’s Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to watch from a market perspective. Five weeks between runs since a close up fifth at this track/distance to Real Danger, beaten just over a length in a good effort. She is a mare who races well with fresh legs so I can understand the freshen up and the tick over trial was a good piece of work, so with her best, I think she can be dangerous against these.

4 Weaponson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right form line to give this a shake. Dan Morton has this guy going super, the latest run being two weeks ago at this track/distance when a game second to a horse who I think will end up being Stakes class, Burnya To Survive. Gets a jockey upgrade with John Allen to steer and drawn to get run of the race, I think he wins if he runs up to the last start effort.

8 Halatorian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has drawn out so he should get clear air from the outset and that should be enough for him to finally get the rub of the green. If you have been on his back his past couple, apologies for bringing it up. He should have just about won but both runs he has been badly held up with plenty in hand. The depth isn’t overly strong and drawn out, he should get into the three wide line and prove hard to hold out.

3 Ain’t No Other Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat first up for Team Casey. He hasn’t raced since October 15 at this track/distance where he was on speed and fought on hard but just couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Requisition. He is a horse who can sprint well fresh, he’s trialled well to get ready for the return and should get into a sweet spot from the inside gate. Leading contender.

4 Sky Duke (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing really well at the moment for Neville Parnham. Game second two back to a Saturday class horse in Lexington City before a strong on speed win at the midweeks at Belmont. Overall, this isn’t a strong race, and he has a good racing style, as well as being hard fit and in form, so for mine, he should take beating.

I find it very interesting that 11 Costume Party (Bet Now:  $SP.00) jumps to 1200m given she looks a 1000m horse but she does have good talent. Pike gave her a peach when winning over the 1000m at Belmont last time out, driving hard late to get the win in impressive fashion. Was keen on her last Saturday at 1000m so having an extra week off and going to 1200m intrigues me. Watch the market.

14 Our Bonny Gossip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is still a maiden but will land near the speed and give cheek. Ran in a maiden at Albany last time where she led and gave a solid kick but did a bit wrong late and jut felt the pinch when fourth. If this track is playing up/in, she is a rough outside chance of winning, but realistically, I’d say she is one that could pinch a first four spot at a big price.

This looks a set play for 6 Alsephina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and she was good to me last Saturday so happy to butter up. Pike gave her a peach to win last Saturday over this track/distance, getting into a sweet spot before angling clear and the mare did the rest, surging hard late to get the win. She has that sense of timing about her whereas some of these are looking for the paddock. Pretty keen on her chances.

1 Treasured Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back to this grade, back against her own sex. She looked a definite Railway/Northerly contender but she is one of many examples of the Cerise/White going like a busted and she failed to fire each time in the majors. Back to this level is a big tick for her but I think it’s noteworthy that Pike would have had the option to ride her but he goes with Alsephina. That’s the lead, but this mare has class.

Good test here for 9 Vitalize (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but she has earned a crack the way she is going this time in. Ran last Saturday at this track/distance in a weaker race where she lobbed into a lovely spot under Chris Parnham before edging into three wide line, finding clear air and finished best to win impressively. She took forever to win a maiden but in recent times, she is winning for fun, so include her in multiples.

7 Queen Alina (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be the one to beat here for Team Pearce. This mare ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where she got back to near last in the run but was good late when second to Coolth, who is potentially heading down the Perth Cup path so if that is indeed Perth Cup form, then Queen Alina has to rate as one of the hardest to beat in this kind of race.

4 Off Wego (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is capable with somewhere near his best. Four weeks between runs since racing over 2200m where he was held up for a few strides, and lost momentum, so should have finished closer to stablemate Truly Inspired, but that said, he had his chance throughout. Pike is aboard now and the depth here is nowhere near as strong, so no shock if he bounced back into positive form.

1 Tena Koutou (Bet Now:  $SP.00) might want one more but he has enough quality to run an improved race from the resumption. That came over the mile here four weeks back where he paraded like he would need the run and that is how it panned out behind Above The Peg. Very good second up record and gets the 3kg claim for a very much in form Luke Campbell, so don’t pen him.

7 God Has Chosen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the each way bet for me here and is the horse I want for the Perth Cup. He has looked a 2000m+ since the first up run where he looked one paced and looking like he wanted more ground. He was excellent against the tempo in the Northerly and produced some of the best late splits of the race and meeting. Love him up in trip and I do love that CJP is aboard. He rides the horse better than anyone.

10 Steinem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the hardest to beat. Ran third in the Northerly so really, job done for her now with a Group l placing. Somewhat unlucky in the Northerly and should have finished closer but had her chance all the same to win. The rise to 2100m should be fine for her, she maps to do no work in the run and has the class/quality factor on her side compared to most engaged.

2 Platoon (Bet Now:  $SP.00), on paper, is going like an absolute busted, but he’s capable of running a much improved race. Ran three weeks back in the Scahill where he was back near last in the run and was never really a factor when down the track behind Marocchino. Good track/distance record and is probably the proven performer when it comes to the locals at around this distance range. Doubt he wins but a first four threat.

15 Sweet Tea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has an awful racing pattern but I think she is flying for Cliff Green and can certainly take this out. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here where she got a mile back in the run, near last, and was never really a threat but made up very good ground late behind Keytrade. Yet to tick the 1600m box but off last run, the mile is fine, and hopefully can get a drag into the race.

5 Henchard (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands a little bit of respect. He looked absolutely cooked for the prep but up he bobbed last Wednesday here, winning quite nicely under Pike, who remains on for this race. He looked like he was looking for the paddock but off last run, perhaps there is petrol left in the tank, and is the proven 1600m+ performer at this level.

2 Tinsnip (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is suited back up in trip. He ran over 1200m here two weeks back when four wide no cover for the trip and the hard run told in the straight when down the track behind Burnya To Survive. Much better suited at both this level and this trip, so if that run hasn’t busted him, he’s got the runs on the board to give this a shake, especially with the claim.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Alsephina

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Vane Tempest

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 God Has Chosen

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 6

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7

Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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