17/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

If 4 Jambalaya (Bet Now:  $SP.00) runs up to the jumpouts, he wins. Shooting To Win gelding on debut for James Cummings off the back of a couple of jumpout wins at Flemington, the latest seeing him lead throughout and he won comfortably in solid time. Draws well to lead and with J Kah back firing, should prove extremely hard to run down around The Valley.

10 She’s Bulletproof (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Shooting To Win on debut for Charlotte Littlefield. The stable isn’t known for having them ready for start one but this filly has looked extremely sharp in jumpout work, winning her latest a couple of weeks ago at Pakenham in okay time. Has a tricky gate to overcome, but with a positive ride, she’s dangerous for sure.

2 Death Defying (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Corstens trained Deep Field gelding that is having start one. He trialled at Benalla a few weeks ago and seemed to move pretty well to my eye, winning it narrowly but impressively with something in hand. Not sure he is sharp enough to win but for wider exotics, he can entertained.

7 Grand Shanghai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Queensland raider who is flying I think for Lindsay Gough and for mine is the each way bet in the race. He ran at Beaudesert two weeks ago where he ran over 3090m where he got a sweet sit in transit and looked all over a winner when he hit the front but was nabbed late by Leather Jacket Lew. He has the run under the belt at a trip, which should hold him in good stead.

8 Bold Jakkal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has only won the one race but is racing well for Patrick Payne. He ran over two miles at Echuca on Cup Day where I thought he was given a peach ride by Kuru and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there when third to impressive winner San Remo. Stable should always be respected in staying races and the depth is a bit on the thin side.

6 Da Deputy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout. He ran fourth in the Sam Remo race mentioned above when wide no cover for the most part and credit to him, he actually hit the front for a few strides but couldn’t quite see it through behind San Remo but gee he was brave. If there is petrol left in the tank, he’s one of the leading contenders for sure.

2 Mr Fabulous (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the least chewed up of this lot IMO and with upside, off a win, he’s the one for me. Market said he was a moral when racing over two miles at Wagga last time and under a confident steer from JVO, he made a mess of them and was impressive in winning. Off that, a further rise in trip should be fine and despite drawing tricky, he appeals.

5 Raid The Bar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key threats. He was 3000m back to 2400m when racing at Mornington just under a fortnight back when back near last in the run and closed off well enough without threatening when third to impressive winner Dictionary. Back up in trip should suit and overall, the depth isn’t deep.

1 Botti (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a definite winning chance. Patrick Payne trained gelding that ran in the San Remo race at Echuca on Cup Day. He was badly held up at a crucial stage and while I don’t think he beats San Remo, he would have made the finish interesting. He’s finally found form since arriving from NZ and with that in mind, he is in the mix.

2 Let Fly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Matt Cumani trained mare that resumed on Horsham Cup Day where she had the suck run in behind the speed and was held up, full of running. She eventually got clear and surged, just missing out on the win behind Red Phantom. Fitter and up to the mile, maps to get an ideal run once again, claim for Gaudray, she appeals as a key chance.

7 Royal Mule (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one with upside/progression and a good racing style. Both career outings have come at Kilmore, placing on debut before stepping up to 1462m when leading throughout and she was strong to the line in winning given she was challenged early on in the straight. Likely is the leader and if the track is playing up/in, she’s dangerous.

9 By Any Other Name (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is another that comes out of maiden grade and comes straight to town but she is a mare on the up. Her maiden win came at Benalla last time where she gave them a start and a beating, letting down with purpose to win nicely. Knockout hope if the inside gate is used to advantage.

3 Awash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in a purple patch and I think he can maintain it. Loved the way he built into the race and was strong late when winning the maiden two back on the Synthetic at Pakenham before going to Swan Hill where he got into a sweet spot behind the speed before angling clear and finished best, getting better as the race went on. Gets in well after the claim and for mine is a straight bat option.

Fitter and up to 1600m are two big ticks for the Lindsey Smith trained 6 Mahrez (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumed over 1400m at Warrnambool when wide no cover for the trip and despite being held late, he was pretty good in defeat behind Super Snitch. Gets a much better set up this time around and goes T Childs to B Shinn. Upside. goes forward, leading contender.

2 Whiskyontherocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is putting together a tidy record for Lucinda Boyd. Market wanted him with confidence when racing over the mile at Swan Hill last time and despite a few nervous moments, he really picked up late and was impressive to the line in winning. That was a moderate 58. Now up to a solid 64 but gets the claim for Bull and maps to do no work.

3 Cadmus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This guy was a strong winner fresh at Sale before having a few weeks off and racing at this track/distance where he looked the winner on the turn but he just lacked the dash to put them away when second to Rebadge. He has the 2040m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead.

SA form, more often than not, stands up in Melbourne so with that in mind, I am respecting 7 Sir Kingsford (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He has won three on the bounce, the latest coming over 2000m at Morphettville when on speed throughout and he was absolutely trucking before being clicked up in the straight and away he went for a strong win. Harder here, but confident he measures up.

1 Russian Dancer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for multiples. He ran third in the Rebadge race mentioned above from two weeks back where he was outside the speed throughout before taking the front and looked like he would kick on the turn but just whacked late but stuck on to run third. If he leads and gets control, he’ll take running down.

1 Mamaragan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top for me. Nick Ryan trained sprinter that is knocking on the door to win. Ran two weeks ago over this track/distance, getting back off the speed and found the line with purpose when a narrow second to Scuderia. He seems to have a real liking for the track/distance and now gets B Shinn aboard, he has plenty in his corner.

10 Rubicon Crossing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. This filly gave them a spanking two back at Mornington before going to The Valley over 1000m when not getting the rub of the green at a crucial stage so be forgiving of the run behind Celui in a tidy effort. Back to this trip, drawn soft, she’ll land near the front and prove hard to beat.

5 Harbin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky gate to overcome but he has the talent to measure up. He ran on Geelong Cup Day over 1300m when keen in the run and that left him without many petrol tickets for the straight behind the in form Boldinho. He does seem suited as a short course horse, he gets in well after the claim and his best is good enough.

8 Aminatu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a great each way gamble. This mare has a good record at the track/distance and I think she is flying off a sharp win at Mornington where she produced sustained speed from the front and gave nothing else a look in, winning quite comfortably in solid time. Should hold the front from the inside gate and prove hard to get past at a likely decent price.

10 Under And Over (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a progressive filly for Team McEvoy. Market wanted her with confidence when resuming over 1000m at Ballarat where she got into a dream spot behind the speed before angling clear at the right time and drove hard late to win and win well in a strong return. Good room for improvement I think, will press forward and be hard to beat.

9 Tapo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Frosted for Gwenda Johnstone that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since July 22 at Caulfield when on speed and tired late to finish down the track behind Va Via in an end of prep run. Her jumpout work has been more than encouraging to my eye and her best is good enough so watch the market.

7 Veloce Carro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will do me in the get out for Maher/Eustace. This gelding ran on Sale Cup Day where he got back in the run and while he did make up headway, he was never threatening behind Rey Magnerio, who won at Flemington last Saturday to frank the form so that clearly reads well for a race like this and prior form was more than sound to say he can win a race like this.

1 El Soleado (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Robbie Laing trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 13 at Flemington when producing an end of prep run, finishing down the track behind a handy horse in Oceans Above. He seems better suited at this distance range and with three jumpouts under the belt, the intent is there to say he runs well first up.

14 Bankroll (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is in with a shout for Peter Burgun. You can make a case to say he should have won first up at Bendigo on their Cup Day, getting badly held up behind the speed before eventually drove clear and just missed out on the win when a narrow second to unbeaten filly Material Dreams. If the rub of the green goes his way, he can threaten.

BEST BET: Race One Number 4 Jambalaya

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 3 Cadmus

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Aminatu

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 10

Leg Three: 2, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 9, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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