A strong nine race program will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday, where the feature race is the $150,000 Listed Winter Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:35) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Tumultuous (Bet Now: $6.00) produced a solid debut at Canterbury behind an above average type in Tango Rain before going to Kembla Grange where he got a lovely ride from Rory Hutchings to get the job done. Looks to have good upside, on his home track and again draws a lovely barrier.
Big Danger: 2 Lord Macau (Bet Now: $7.50) resumed at the midweeks at Warwick Farm where he was unwanted in betting yet led all the way and kicked on for a narrow but impressive win. Straight up to 1400m second up looks an ideal recipe for success.
Roughie: 3 Enterprise Mount (Bet Now: $26.00) debuted at Beaumont-Newcastle a couple of weeks back and though the depth wasn’t strong, he sat wide no cover on speed and just bolted in. Comes straight to town, but that win was impressive.
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Race Two (12:10) : #theraces Handicap (76) 1500m:
Back Me: 11 Kingsguard (Bet Now: $7.00) ran over the Warwick Farm mile a couple of weeks back where he hit the front and looked home but his fitness just gave way and had to settle for a close up second to Firebird Flyer, who franked the form by winning last week at Randwick. Maiden taking on the big boys here isn’t easy, but Team Hawkes don’t do that unless they are confident.
Roughie: 9 Dubaiinstyle (Bet Now: $6.50) ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he sat back in the run and looked the winner but was bloused late by Suboric. He’s finding it hard to win but he is clearly knocking on the door.
Big Danger: 4 Dark Eyes (Bet Now: $10.00) was completely luckless at Randwick three weeks back before racing at Canterbury last Wednesday where he ran his races in patches when fifth to Art Noveau. Steps straight up to 1500m and that’s a recipe proven very fruitful for Gai Waterhouse.
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Race Three (12:45) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Deals ‘N’ Diamonds (Bet Now: $5.50) resumed on his home track at Canberra a tick over three weeks back and was afforded a lovely sit off the tempo before shoving into the clear and showing a nice turn of foot to get the job done. Rising seven year old only having his fifth start, so the stable has been patient, but I think they’ll be rewarded here.
Big Danger: 5 Stratum’s Siren (Bet Now: $6.00) has been given a four week freshen up since racing in a Highway over 1500m here where she worked home okay late without threatening behind the in form King’s Officer. Avdulla takes over now, back to 1200m suits and this does look a winnable race for her on her best form.
Roughie: 15 Somebody (Bet Now: $81.00) was huge first up at Narromine sitting four wide no cover throughout before being freshened up and running on a bottomless Mudgee surface where she couldn’t pick her feet up. I’ve liked her since day one and though she rises significantly in grade, she is right down in the weights and gets a draw to sit with cover and ambush late.
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Race Four (13:20) : Schweppes Handicap (73) 2000m:
Back Me: D Day is here for 5 Thurston (Bet Now: $4.80). Two ripping runs to kick off the prep before racing here a fortnight back where he looked to be absolutely bolting on the turn but he just went backwards. If he runs up to the previous runs, I think he wins.
Big Danger: 12 Something Borrowed (Bet Now: $6.00) ran at Warwick Farm at the midweeks two weeks ago and tried hard when running a close up fourth to Get On The Grange. Was scratched from Grafton on Wednesday to be saved for this harder assignment. Hard to beat.
Roughie: 10 Erika (Bet Now: $7.00) was given an absolute peach of a steer from Shinn to win a Highway here a fortnight back, darting up the rail to charge through and grab victory in the last couple of strides. Steps up to the big boys now, but he looks ready made.
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Race Five (13:55) : TAB Rewards Handicap (78) 1500m:
Back Me: 10 Obsidian (Bet Now: $4.60) was a real eye catcher here a fortnight ago here when charging home from the back to run a close up fourth to Wine ‘N’ Dine. He has enormous upside here and with natural improvement, he will take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: 4 Figtree (Bet Now: $11.00) ran at Randwick three weeks back and was pretty good I thought behind Super Tycoon after sitting midfield in the run. He has been knocking on the door for some time and it is getting close to D-Day, so I think he is running out of chances, but he gets his chance here.
Roughie: 11 Steamin (Bet Now: $13.00) is a consistent type for Marc Conners who ran at the midweeks a couple of weeks back at Warwick Farm when working home well late behind Rock Mylady. He should be getting close to peak fitness now and looms as a definite contender.
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Race Six (14:35) : Winter Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: I think there is real value in the shape of 8 Hidden Warrior (Bet Now: $21.00). He was superb when resuming before going to the Winter Dash at at Randwick where he was wide throughout yet stuck on well I thought behind Mount Nebo. Extra trip will really suit this horse, and if he gets any sort of normal luck here, I think he’ll run a cheeky race at odds.
Big Danger: 1 Ninth Legion (Bet Now: $4.60) has really got a new lease on life since being sent to Peter Robl. He has won his past two starts, both at Stakes level, including the Civic Stakes here a fortnight back when ridden a treat by Sam Clipperton. The 1kg weight rise isn’t that much of a negative for mine because he is a proven weight carrier, and the extra 50m is only beneficial.
Roughie: 9 Better Not Blue (Bet Now: $5.00) ran a game second to Ninth Legion in the Civic where he charged home late and looked the winner but the eventual winner just kicked on a touch too strongly. He does get a little weight pull on that horse here and he really is bursting to win a race. Gets his chance here for sure I think.
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Race Seven (15:15) : Tab.com.au Handicap (93) 1200m:
Back Me: There was a bit to like about the win of 3 El Sasso (Bet Now: $2.60) when resuming here on July 2. He had a charmed run behind the tempo and when presented, gee he showed a lovely turn of foot to put them away easily and the time was sharp. This horse has really good upside and he looks very well placed.
Big Danger: 11 Grande Punto (Bet Now: $6.00) is on the back up after racing last Saturday at Randwick where he lumped 60kg and couldn’t pick himself on the cow paddock that was Randwick when down the track behind Burning Passion. Tumbles right down in the weights, draws well, races best at Rosehill and he can sharply improve here for sure.
Roughie: 1 Forget (Bet Now: $15.00) is a talented galloper that resumes for Kim Waugh. He contested some really good races during the Carnival, and behind some high class animals such as Our Boy Malachi and Solicit. His latest trial at Gosford was very good, he runs well and despite the hefty impost, he’ll be hard to beat for sure.
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Race Eight (15:55) : Pluck @ Vinery Handicap (85) 1350m:
Back Me: 11 Extensible (Bet Now: $8.00) had one run in the Summer at Warwick Farm and was superb in getting the job done there, albeit it was narrow. Has been given a really good break and has been tuned up for her return to racing with a couple of trials. She flies fresh and stable is going very well.
Big Danger: 12 Zelda (Bet Now: $16.00) ran over the Randwick 1400m three weeks back when trying hard but she was simply no match for Elle Lou and had to settle for second, beaten 1.5L. She has been knocking on the door to win a race for a little while now, and I think she gets her chance here.
Roughie: 5 Fiftyshadesofgrey (Bet Now: $21.00) comes through the Pioneering race here a fortnight back where she got back in the run and made up nice ground late to finish just under four lengths away from the winner. That was her first run off a little freshen up, so she should improve off that, and with a likely genuine tempo here, she’ll be very strong late.
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Race Nine (16:35) : McGrath Estaye Agents Handicap (77) 1200m:
Back Me: 14 No Bad Blood (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a really good play at each way odds to close out the card. He didn’t really fire a shot in two runs during the Summer, but he has looked very sharp in a couple of barrier trials, in particular the latest one at Gosford on June 27. He loves racing fresh, drawn a sweet gate and should be sitting off a likely strong tempo.
Big Danger: 3 Butterboom (Bet Now: $3.60) takes on the boys after running in a Mares race here a fortnight back where she sat on speed and fought on very strongly when running a close up third to Pioneering. Giving weight to the males isn’t easy, but she’s hard fit and in form, plus she draws well.
Roughie: 15 Puzzling Wonder (Bet Now: $9.00) was backed at odds to win last time out at Wyong but he just got a mile back run when a flashing fourth to Isorich, a race in which the form has been franked through Badajoz last Saturday. He does get a 1.5kg weight swing on Isorich here and I think he has more upside.
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BEST BET: Race Five Number 10 Obsidian
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 11 Kingsguard
VALUE: Race Six Number 8 Hidden Warrior
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 3, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 12, 13, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 7.44% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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