16/5/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Roma Cup day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday where it is Roma Cup Day, with the 1200m feature attracting a Group l quality line up. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Sassy Trader (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a smart juvenile for the Casey camp that debuted over 1000m here two weeks ago when heavily backed and despite being a touch keen on speed, he showed good change up speed when asked for the effort and won well. Stable is flying at the moment and don’t see 1100m being an issue for him.

5 Redhead Ritchie (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Safeguard gelding on debut for the Julie Mitchell team. This youngster has had three career trials to get ready for start one, with two of those being this prep. Latest of the two trials came on Monday at Belmont and didn’t mind the way he moved in running third. Good lead for mine is that stable finds Paul Harvey to steer.

2 Tiger Move (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Dion Luciani trained youngster that debuted over 1000m here a fortnight back. He was big odds but thought the run was a definite pass mark after getting a nice run just off the speed. Was no match for the first two but stayed on. Think the extra 100m suits and is one to include in multiples.

1 Amelia’s Contraire (Bet Now: $1.80) is a smart filly for Simon Miller that let the punters down badly as an odds on pop first up over 1100m when leading and tiring. She then came back to this trip, was ridden cold, before Pike weaved his way through the field and the class of this filly came to the fore late. Pike sticks with her and last start, I think, was the key to unlocking her – riding her cold.

3 We’ve Got Dreams (Bet Now: $4.50) is a daughter of Universal Ruler for Michael Lane that resumes. This filly hasn’t raced since January 4 over this track/distance when down the track behind the above average Indian Pacific. Two trials leading in have been strong and stable is absolutely flying in town at the moment.

6 Dew West (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the seven day back up for the Jason Pateman stable after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where she was back near last in the small field and pretty much stayed there behind impressive winner Resortman. The run prior at this track/distance when beaten narrowly by the tough nut Round The Point doesn’t read too bad.

Tricky race but leaning the way of 11 Jaguar Grey (Bet Now: $4.20) for the Justine Erkelens camp. Got the maiden tag out of the way over this track/distance back on April 29 when getting the suck run off a slow speed before before getting the cutaway and sprinting nicely late to get the job done. Don’t think this is a strong race and she’s got upside to come.

4 Bruce Almighty (Bet Now: $6.00) is a consistent and honest animal for Neville Parnham that is rarely far away but just struggles to put it together and get the job done. Ran over 1200m here last Wednesday when on speed and trying hard when third to the in form Stella Door. His last couple have been at 1200m, so like him back up to 1400m, especially from the draw.

12 Looks Like Magic (Bet Now: $23.00) is another that comes here off the back of a maiden win. Hers came three weeks ago over 1200m when specked at a big price and despite being strongly challenged in the straight from the front, she gave a good kick and was too good, just. Her prior efforts at 1400m haven’t been too bad and she’ll give herself every chance.

9 Indigo Wild (Bet Now: $7.00) for me but this is a very tricky race. Jason Pateman trains this mare, who resumed at this track/distance back on April 29 when on speed in a slowly run affair and seemed to have her chance when second to Miss Conteki, but IMO, the tempo was too slow. Think a more rolling speed will suit her…and while her overall winning record isn’t great, she draws well and is down in the weights.

4 Kramden (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Dennis Couper trained six year old that has had strong market support at his past couple. They landed the bets two back when leading and bolting up. Ran four weeks ago over 1200m here when leading, and was keen in front, which left him with nothing left for the straight. Back to 1000m, handle bars down from the front I suspect.

Think Gary Crispin finds a very winnable race for his mare 8 Cosmic Eyes (Bet Now: $26.00). Went too keen in the run two back when down the track here behind Celebrity Queen. Then went to Bunbury over 1000m when sitting off the speed in a fast run race and worked home okay when fourth to Missing Pro. Hopefully the inside gate is used to advantage.

Surely the rub of the green will go the way of 6 Laufey (Bet Now: $2.45) eventually. This gelding ran over the mile here two weeks ago and gee he was unlucky, again. Held up for most of the straight under Pike and seemingly had plenty to offer. Has drawn wide in all four runs this prep but now has a gate to use and think he’s going well enough to take this out, with Pike sticking being a good lead.

3 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $10.00) isn’t far off a win for Michael Lane. Bit disappointing first up here before stepping up to the mile when getting a lovely sit just off the speed before getting the inside split, dashing through and looking home, but was bloused near the line. Tricky draw for him, so will need luck, but the effort last start was encouraging that he might be back on track.

Think the rise to 1800m should be ideal for the David Harrison trained filly 11 Fuel The Friar (Bet Now: $23.00), who ran over the mile here two weeks back in a 3YO race and despite being $51, gee she was good and a bit unlucky not to finish closer, getting held up for a few strides when wanting to build momentum. Like her up in trip and Harvey takes over.

1000m isn’t the A1 trip for 5 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $14.00) but he just maps perfect here so I’m going his way. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago when in the 1/1 and seemed to have his chance, but was still far from disgraced in defeat when fourth to the in form Pym’s Royale. Way I see this, he gets the perfect sit behind Condor Heroes and will get first look at running him down from the box seat.

9 River Beau (Bet Now: $2.15) is a Bruce Watkins trained three year old that deserves a crack at this level. Three weeks between runs since scoring an impressive win at this track/distance against his own age, getting the box seat sit before a split appeared and under riding was too good for his rivals. Harder here, probably short enough, but is a winner.

11 State Attorney (Bet Now: $8.00) will be a fast closer here. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and worked home very strongly from the back behind Condor Heroes, clocking some of the best late splits of the race. If he can sit a pair or two closer in the run this time around, think he’ll be dangerous and represents value.

Leaning the way of 2 Mankind (Bet Now: $8.00). Resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago when run off his legs by Condor Heroes, but loved the way he kept finding and was pretty game in defeat I thought when third to the flying Gangemi sprinter. On paper, his second up record is poor, but if you break down each run, there has been excuses. I’ll give him a chance despite jumping straight to 1400m.

Interesting that 9 Star Value (Bet Now: $21.00) comes back to 1400m. Ran over the mile here last Saturday when back in the run and while he was never really a winning threat, he did make up ground and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Pinsson. He’ll likely be spotting them a start back in trip but will be strong late and has run okay on the back up before.

Roy Rogers has done an outstanding job with 13 Luke’s Gold (Bet Now: $12.00) this time in. Has gone from a provincial class horse to now being a proven Saturday metro horse. He won over this track/distance three weeks ago and was most impressive in winning after getting the sit behind the speed. Got a split and drove through. Harder here, but have to respect the way he’s going.

It would be a remarkable training feat if 2 Vega Magic (Bet Now: $3.00) was to return to racing a winner and I think he can. At his best, he was one of the best sprinters in Australia, as we saw in the 2017 Everest where he should have won when second to Redzel. Been a while since he has raced anywhere near his best, but is back home in WA and he looked sharp in a trial win recently at Belmont.

Hard fit and back up to 1200m are two big ticks for the Simon Miller mare 11 Flirtini (Bet Now: $4.00), who had to chase Fabergino two weeks ago in the Northam Stakes over 1100m here and tried hard, but the sustained speed of that brilliant mare was too much for Flirtini, though was game in second. Set up is ideal for her here and she’ll be strong late.

8 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $9.50) is a talented four year old that is first up. He hasn’t been sighted since finishing down the track in the Kingston Town Classic behind Kay Cee after sitting back in the run and failing to come on. No public trials, but he is an absolute bomb when produced fresh and has class. The query is the wide gate.

7 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $5.00) looks ready for the step up to 1400m for Luke Fernie. He won over 1200m here two weeks ago when sitting off a good speed and finishing best under a lovely ride from Pateman. Bit of depth to this line up, but he was a month between runs when winning that race and for mine, he’s better suited at 1400m.

11 Laverrod (Bet Now: $2.40) is unknown at 1400m and is taking on the older horses but Team Casey has this three year old absolutely flying at the moment. He was an impressive winner over 1100m three weeks ago here, showing an electric turn of foot and winning with something in hand. Impressive trial winner on Monday and I think he’ll be okay at 1400m.

4 Carocapo (Bet Now: $12.00) is a horse that will love the rise to 1400m. Five weeks between runs when racing over 1200m here a fortnight back when missing the start and was back near last throughout, failing to get into the race behind Pym’s Royale. He’ll come on from that one would assume and big tick is getting to 1400m.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Speeding Comet (Each Way)

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Sassy Trader

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Mankind

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 9, 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 9, 13

Leg Three: 2, 8, 10, 11, 12

Leg Four: 4, 7, 11, 14

$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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