The Sydney Autumn Carnival really begins to warm up this Saturday at Rosehill where it is Coolmore Classic Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (13:00) Catanach's Handicap (88) 1350m
Really like 9 Star Of The Seas (Bet Now: $3.90) as a horse and I think he gets a chance to put a win on the board this prep. Hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing at this track/distance where he kept chasing and was far from disgraced behind Archedemus, who looks the likely Provincial Championships winner. Should sit off a good speed and hopefully can finish over the top.
I think 1 Don’t Give A Damn (Bet Now: $11.00) can bounce back here but gee he’s getting near D-Day. The inside wasn’t the A1 ground when he resumed first up at Randwick but was still a flop behind You Make Me Smile. Subsequent trial at Warwick Farm was good but the key to this horse is finding the front. He’s unbeaten in several runs when leading. If he finds the front, at his best, clearly the horse to beat.
10 Tinkermosa (Bet Now: $26.00) was big odds when an upset winner first up at Wyong but the win did have merit to it given she was on speed on a track which probably didn’t suit her, big weight…she was tough and too good, beating Oakfield Twilight, who ran a beauty in a Provincial Championships Qualifier. Wet track no issue, tumbles in weight…must for exotics.
Race 2. (13:40) Maurice McCarten Stakes 1100m
I’m reading between the lines and guess that 3 Fiery Heights (Bet Now: $7.00) horse is flying. Barry Lockwood could have resumed him in the Goldmarket at the Gold Coast but instead elects to resume in Sydney. Gate one and stable finds J Mac to steer, so a few positives for him. Good fresh horse and was given a solid hitout in winning a trial last week at Deagon. Gave them a caning first up last prep over 1200m and ran brilliant splits, so I think he’s the clear overs here.
He’s a bit hit and miss but at his best, 1 Music Magnate (Bet Now: $10.00) would be too good for this lot. This time last year he was running in the Al Quoz at Dubai when outclassed behind Jungle Cat and I don’t really think he fully got over that experience in the Spring with some real uninspiring efforts at times. Been given a good break, has trialled up really well and finds a winnable race. If he’s right, he wins…just want to see him for now.
8 Akasaki (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute beauty for Stephen Jones and he could easily run well. He resumed on Feb 9 at Warwick Farm where you could make a case he should have won, having to duck and weave his way through the field to run a close up third to Badajoz in a race where that form has been franked via Malahat. He is a good fresh who doesn’t mind a wet track, so he’s a chance for sure.
Race 3. (14:15) Magic Night Stakes 1200m
Hoping back to Sydney and back to Rosehill can see 4 Athiri (Bet Now: $4.00) bounce back. On face value, I thought she was disappointing in the Blue Diamond when fourth to Lyre because she was given every chance by Williams in the run but couldn’t finish it off. Bred to handle a wet track, has handled a wet track comfortably in a trial, gate one, J Mac…she’s well placed at this level.
Taking a chance on the Brent Stanley trained 12 Invincible Lotus (Bet Now: $16.00). Was crunched in betting when debuting last week at Seymour over 1100m and the punters got it spot on. Led all the way under Mitch Aitken, bolting in and running good time and splits relative to the day, which is always a good sign for a two year old on debut. 1200m a little query, but she looks handy and will be on speed.
9 Giselle Anne (Bet Now: $71.00) is a Lee Curtis trained filly who has had four career outings, so experience is no issue for her. She ran in the Sweet Embrace where after a tardy start she was forced to sit back in the run compared to sitting near the front, and in the end, that might have cost her some decent prizemoney because the race was dominated by Anaheed on speed. If she jumps well, should be near the lead and giving herself every chance.
Race 4. (14:55) Pago Pago Stakes 1200m
4 Yulong Savings (Bet Now: $9.00) on top. Been a big fan of this colt since he trialled and hasn’t really let me down. Debuted with a very sharp win over 1100m at Bendigo before going down the Flemington straight where he should have won IMO but his run was impeded by Cheer Leader when looking to build the revs. Clear air this time and I think he’ll take some beating.
1 Hightail (Bet Now: $4.40) a definite threat for me. Team Snowden trains this colt, who hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast where he ran a gutsy third to Exhilarates in a high pressure race. Has been given the freshen up and the trial win at Canterbury was just fair I thought. Love the blinkers going on, hopefully to sharpen him because the trial did look sluggish to the eye.
13 King’s Champ (Bet Now: $26.00) is a horse I’d be keeping close tabs on from a market perspective. Debuted in the Breeders Plate, a race I have serious doubts over as a decent form race. Forget he went around given he was wide five wide no cover for the trip and rightfully dropped out. Been given a good spell and has looked sharp in a couple of trials. If he runs up to his trials, he’s a knockout chance. Deep Fields are also very good when they have give in the track.
Race 5. (15:35) Phar Lap Stakes 1500m
Best manners brought to the table here and 11 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $2.70) should be winning. High quality filly for Chris Waller who hasn’t raced since having the first run for the stable in the vanity at Flemington where she wanted to do things wrong once again but her last 200m was excellent behind Amphitrite. She’s a filly who loves a track with give, soft game and J Mac remaining on, plenty to like.
I’m hot on 12 Zalatte (Bet Now: $4.80) at 2000m+ this prep so I think 1500m is short of her best but no denying her quality. She was well backed at odds first up in the Surround and for mine, the distance was too short but her last 75-100m was excellent for a filly who is clearly looking like she’s an Oaks candidate. She’ll be strong again late…does she have enough zip to beat these?
7 Seabrook (Bet Now: $6.00) deserves another look. Had trialled up alright prior to resuming in the Surround where she was back and wide in a slowly run affair and couldn’t really get involved but did make ground late and wasn’t too bad behind Nakeeta Jane. Is a winner on soft ground in the past and should improve off the resumption. Interesting to see how she goes.
Race 6. (16:10) Sky High Stakes 2000m
When I first looked at this race, I thought 10 Samadoubt (Bet Now: $4.00) would be a risk, but with the scratchings and how the map leads, plus with the wet track, he does look so well placed on the quick back up after bolting in the Canberra Cup on Sunday where Tim Clark rode him a treat on speed, getting some really cheap sectionals and turning it into a dash up the straight. Michael Walker is very good on front runners and being by Not A Single Doubt, the wet track no issue.
Can 3 Red Cardinal (Bet Now: $3.20) repeat the dose to what he did first up in the Parramatta Cup from three weeks ago. He lapped up the fast speed and once he got to the outside, his class came to the fore and he proved a mile too good. That form wasn’t exactly ticked off last Saturday, so a little query, but he’s had the extra week off and is a horse who likes a track with give.
I think 1 Patrick Erin (Bet Now: $8.00) can be a big improver here. He’s had two runs back from a spell for Chris Waller and has been solid enough at each outing, both behind the champion mare Winx so hard to get a real guide on how well he’s truly going but the Chipping Norton was a brutal contest so up to 2000m and significantly back in depth, interesting to see how he goes.
Race 7. (16:50) Coolmore Classic 1500m
Two horses I am backing in this race, the first of which is 11 I Am Serious (Bet Now: $5.50). Been high up in the fan club of hers since day one and now she’s living up to the early expectation. Millie Fox run was very good I thought and a little case to say she should have won, losing momentum at a vital stage and she’s mare that needs clear air early to wind into her work. The big tick for her is the weather forecast, where we are expecting rain. If that comes, her chances are only enhanced.
Took a slice of the $26 all in for 17 Jamaican Rain (Bet Now: $4.00) on the basis that we get a genuine wet track, because she’s one of the best wet trackers in Australia. Only time she’s been defeated on wet ground was back in 2017 at Seymour as a $1.20 pop on what could only be described as a cow paddock. Resumed on a firm surface in the Mannerism and the race was more or less handed to her, with Olly taking her to the front and she dominated. Form was franked in the Matron last Saturday, 1500m no issue and if the rain does come, I have her marked $10, maybe shorter.
2 Dixie Blossoms (Bet Now: $18.00) looks a bit more dour this time in so up to 1500m on a testing track looks perfect for her. Resumed in the Guy Walter where she loomed to win but Alassio was hard fit/in form and just proved too good on the day. She gets the suck run from the draw, handles a wet track…why is she $14/thereabouts. Should clearly be single figures.
Race 8. (17:30) Ajax Stakes 1500m
Gee I think 9 Fierce Impact (Bet Now: $9.00) is a really good each way gamble here. The signs are there that he’s wound up to win this to ensure a Doncaster start. Love horses that end a prep on a high and that is what he did when bolting up in the Summer Cup. Been given a good break and his two trials have been outstanding to the eye, both 1000m+ trials, so I think the grounding is there to run well and he looks to have speed in the legs because when clicked up, there has been a response instantly.
11 Seaway (Bet Now: $4.20) looks hard to beat. Looked a good thing on paper when racing here three weeks ago and after landing on speed in a slowly run race, he was always in control and never really looked like getting beat. Taking on some big boys here with top notch credentials, so it won’t be easy for him, but he’s going about it in the right manner and does like racing here.
10 Mask Of Time (Bet Now: $15.00) an outside winning chance for me. The Maher/Eustace stable trains this bloke, who resumed over 1500m here three weeks ago and loomed large to beat the in form Seaway. Just think his condition gave out late when third to the Waller four year old. Loves a track with give in it, which is what he should get here, and I think he gets control from in front, where he can be tough to beat.
Race 9. (18:10) ANZ Bloodstock News Handicap (78) 1900m
Had to like the Australian debut of 3 Supernova (Bet Now: $3.90) at the midweeks here back on Feb 27 over 1500m. Got a fair way back off the pace and was never really in the hunt but his last 150-200m was really encouraging when warming to the task late to run second to Sondelon. If he improves off that for this, he looks the likely winner. Just hoping there’s no second up syndrome. Sire was a swimmer so wet track no issue in that regard.
Was hard to miss the run of 2 Desert Path (Bet Now: $4.40) at Randwick from two weeks ago. Spotted them a huge start on the turn but finished off with real purpose late to just miss out on picking up the well ridden and well backed Goathland. He was second up there, so should a stack of upside left with him and he’s in the right stable. The negative is coming back in trip.
5 White Boots (Bet Now: $11.00) could be a knockout chance here if he gets things to suit on speed. Sat outside the speed last time at Wyong on Feb 19 when he looked gone on the turn but he kept finding under Billy Owen and scraped in. Has won at 1900m in the past and should have room for improvement. Lacks the class of some of these, but will be on speed and a wet track shouldn’t be an issue.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 9 Fierce Impact
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 11 Verry Elleegant
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Yulong Savings
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 10
Leg Two: 2, 6, 11, 17
Leg Three: 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 9, 13
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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