Eight races will be run and won at Morphettville this Saturday where it is Birthday Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out nine metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (13:56) TAB Plate 1100m
1 Dalasan (Bet Now: $5.00) might well be the pony to bet on here against this lot. He looked no hope of winning when debuting on the Parks track a fortnight ago where he kept surging late and lunged right on the peg to get the win. On breeding, he should get a decent trip, so whatever he’s doing now is a bonus I think, but clearly looks to have ability. Keen on him running well.
6 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $2.40) looks an above average filly for the Ryan Balfour stable who debuted on December 22 here where she got back and worked home well to run second to free Of Debt, who has franked that form big time by winning at Flemington. Break between runs, no trials since, so market will be the guide, but the debut in a good race does read well for this.
4 Vinco (Bet Now: $9.00) is a son of I Am Invincible for Tony McEvoy who was specked at odds when debuting in a maiden at Geelong where he got back in the run and closed off okay without really threatening behind the seemingly above average Talented. Had trialled up well leading into that, and this race, overall, doesn’t have as much depth, so expect improvement.
Race 2. (14:31) Nutella Palooza Handicap (64) 1050m
9 Raging Queen (Bet Now: $4.80) on top. Phillip Stokes trains this filly, who resumed in a maiden here on January 23 where she was an odds on pop and visually, she wasn’t impressive in terms of brilliance, but she showed really good fight late when the second horse was getting away but she knuckled down and proved too good. Got upside and stable is going well at the moment.
5 Icelandic Star (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Gordon Richards trained six year old who was well supported when resuming on the Parks track last Wednesday where he had the good sit just behind the speed and for mine, he seemed to have every chance and you’d have to mark him down as disappointing when fourth to Raheeba. Second up record is good…have to give him another chance.
11 Pandeia is on the quick back up after racing on the Parks track last Wednesday where she attempted to lead all the way at a good clip and she gave a kick early on in the straight but felt the pinch late when third to Raheeba. She’ll likely lead this field up and give a sight once again, but the last 50-100m will be her hardest test, but I’d include her in exotics.
Race 3. (15:06) Happy Engagement Josh & Lisa Handicap (70) 2040m
2 Lynch Mob (Bet Now: $1.80) is a Tony McEvoy trained galloper who is in a real purple patch at the moment. He has won his past two, the latest coming over 1950m on the Parks track where I thought the ride from Caserta went a long way to winning the race, just making the right moves at the right time and he pounced quickly on Charossa to win. Lot to like here and is a clear threat.
1 Lieder (Bet Now: $8.00) should just about be ready to show his best. He’s on the seven day back up for Michael Hickmott after racing last Saturday over the mile here where he settled back off the pace and tried hard but just didn’t have the zip in the legs behind Bwuva. I think up to 2000m is ideal and I like the fact he’s on the seven day turnaround. Definite threat.
11 All Well (Bet Now: $35.00) is a Grant Young trained stayer who rises a fair bit in grade/depth and while I doubt he will win, he could add some value to exotics. He ran over 2000m here on January 23 where he was just off the speed throughout and tried hard but couldn’t really go on with it when fourth to Exalted Bloom. Was down to run over 2500m last Saturday, but I like him at the trip here, and this isn’t a strong race.
Race 4. (15:41) Hughes Limousines Handicap (90) 1200m
I didn’t really look at him at first look because the blinkers were on Streets Of Avalon, but gee how well placed is 1 Heart Of A Lion (Bet Now: $5.50)? He’s better than these surely. Two runs back from a spell have been okay, the latest in the Sale Quality when fourth to Fox Hall. Back on firmer footing, gate one, the claim for Nugent means he’s very well in. Just needs luck to get clear and I think he can only run well.
3 Barood (Bet Now: $3.80) just has to tick the 1200m box to go to close winning for mine. Sue Murphy has this entire flying at the moment, winning his last over the short course, each time given 12/10 steers. Have to go back 12 months to the last time he raced at six furlongs so the trip has to be a little query with him, but the way he’s racing at the moment, hard to go past him.
8 Stragun (Bet Now: $6.00) is a very hard horse to follow and trust for Grant Kluske. Fab win first up over 1050m here and in two subsequent runs, he’s returned to the old Stragun of teasing and running below par. His best is certainly good enough to win, but it’s almost a case of you’d struggle to back him with borrowed money. But his best is good enough to win, which is the saving grace.
Race 5. (16:21) M&J Chickens Handicap (70) 1200m
Pretty confident that 9 So We Are (Bet Now: $9.50) can measure up here. Phillip Stokes trains this daughter of So You Think, who trialled up well prior to resuming in a Gawler maiden where she was given a lovely steer by Pannell and she bolted in when asked for the big effort, and time was solid relative to the day. Can only see upside…only negative is remaining at 1200m.
4 Caraluisa (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Rebel Raider filly for the Macdonald/Gluyas stable who ran in a Class One at Gawler over 1200m where she was well supported late and she justified the market push with a very dominant win, winning by a space and ran good time. She’s promised to be a metro class horse and with that confidence boost under the belt now, hopefully she can go on with it.
8 Jaamint (Bet Now: $27.00) is a Gordon Richards trained filly who has been around the mark since winning at odds three back on the course proper here. Last run came three weeks back on the Parks when near the speed and tired late behind Stryke In Style. Probably hasn’t got the class/brilliance to beat these, but I think for wider exotics and multiples, she should be included.
Race 6. (17:01) South Adelaide Football Club Handicap (70) 1200m
10 Flop (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Gordon Richards trained mare who has been quite good in two runs back from a break. Last run came a fortnight back on the Parks track when running a close up fourth in a field of five won by Everyday Lady. Not the greatest of third up records but she seems a much better horse now and looks one of the hardest to beat against this lot IMO.
12 Don’t Doubt It (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Kristi Evans trained mare who was hard in the market when resuming on Strathalbyn Cup Day where she got the dream run off the pace and when Boyd angled into clear air, she finished strongly and proved too good, just. Just missed out second up last prep and the form around her from last prep does read well for this, so she gets respect from me.
5 French Rock (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Francis/Kent trained gelding who resumed last Saturday here where he just got a mile too far back in the run and was never really in the hunt when fourth to Domination, but wasn’t disgraced by any means. Think he’ll improve off that and up to 1200m suits, plus backs up straight away, which is usually a good sign for mine.
Race 7. (17:41) Birthday Cup 2040m
This is one very thin race so I’ll go with the horse that has upside, which lies with 4 Silent Warrior (Bet Now: $5.00) for Stuart Gower. Was second up when racing over the mile last Saturday where he was on speed all the way and tried really hard but the in form and above average Morvada just had last look and edged past him late but his effort was more than satisfactory. Up to 2000m is idea, got upside, lands near the pace and will be hard to run down.
It’s a Listed race so I’d normally say that 3 Wasabi Bob (Bet Now: $4.50) will find it tough but it’s a benchmark class field so he’s a definite threat. Raquel Clark gave him an absolute peach of a ride when leading all the way on the Parks track over 2250m three weeks ago, beating Olympic Academy, who bolted up last Saturday to frank the form. Back in trip no issue, hard fit and in form. Likeable.
8 Exalted Lightning (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the Adelaide Cup path and he appears to be ticking over okay for the race after an eye catching second in the Strathalbyn Cup last start where he got home with purpose late to just miss out on the win. I think 2000m is short of an ideal trip for him, but stable should never be underestimated with their stayers and this race doesn’t have much depth.
Race 8. (18:20) Shane Miller's 60th Birthday Handicap (75) 1600m
10 Light The Waves (Bet Now: $4.60) is a mare with upside and she’s already a winner this time in so happy to be in her corner. She ran on the Parks track a fortnight ago where she was given a lovely steer from Holder and when he clicked her up, away she went and she bolted in. Didn’t beat much, but the manner in which she did it was impressive and is only third up here so there’s room to improve for sure.
2 Daktari (Bet Now: $7.00) is a very interesting runner. Dennis O’Leary trains this bloke, who was well backed when resuming on the Parks track three weeks ago where he seemed to get a soft lead and for mine I’d mark him down as disappointing when fourth to Over And Above. He’s better than that, so give him another look because the market support fresh should be respected.
5 Tahnee Tiara (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Peter Hardacre trained mare who is racing in near career best form at the moment. Ran over the mile at Murray Bridge last time where I thought Raquel Clark gave the mare every chance in the run and did everything she could to get the horse home, but she just wasn’t quite good enough. Has run well in town before and is a mare in form, so has to be respected.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Lynch Mob
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Dalasan
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 10 Flop
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
Leg Two: 5, 6, 10, 12
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8
Leg Four: 2, 5, 7, 8, 10
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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