Saturday racing in Perth returns to Ascot this Saturday where it is Challenge Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (15:58) abtouch Better Your Bet Plate 1000m
Just how good is 6 Amelia’s On Fire (Bet Now: $1.65)? The 400m trial was okay, a bit inconclusive, but the 1000m trial win at Belmont last Monday was something else. Won by nearly 10 lengths and though pushed out, comfortably ran the fastest 1000m trial of the two year olds that morning and it was the second quickest overall 1000m trial, with the well performed Battle Hero the only trial winner going quicker. I’ll take the punt she’s pretty good.
1 Amarillo Rose (Bet Now: $2.70) is the juvenile with the runs on the board, resuming with a win at this track/distance two weeks ago when on speed and fighting hard to fend off a handy one in Venetian Jewel. Looked a bit big in condition that afternoon so I think she’ll take good improvement from that run, she’s got race fitness and has the right racing pattern.
5 Wicklow Princess (Bet Now: $8.00) was hard in the market when debuting in the Amarillo Rose race from two weeks back and you could make a little case she nearly should have fought the finish out. Just had no room in the straight to build momentum and she didn’t have the turn of foot to quicken immediately when the gap appeared. Trial prior to that was good so giving her another look.
Race 2. (16:38) Henryk Malec 60th Birthday Maiden 1200m
These maidens are always tricky to sort out but I think 3 The Squirt (Bet Now: $9.50) is the pony to bet on. Brett Pope trains this four year old, who was five weeks between runs when racing down the Pinjarra straight where he found ground near the outside fence and loomed to win but his condition just gave way. Up to 1200m and fitter, I think he’s a relatively safe option.
7 Wild Gust (Bet Now: $3.50) is a 17 start maiden for the Bob McPherson stable who has placed on five occasions, including last time at Bunbury where Pike seemed to give the mare every chance of getting the win but the winner Heavenly Affair was holding her comfortably on the line. She’s had a few chances to break the maiden so could I back her with confidence? Probably not, but concede she’s a threat.
11 Miss Pins (Bet Now: $7.50) is a daughter of Pins for the Simon Miller stable that is resuming. This mare hasn’t raced since June 7 at Ballarat when down the track in a maiden over the mile. The two trials now she’s been with the new stable have been more than encouraging and she has showed speed each time. Market is the guide, but any sort of positive push and I want to be on.
Race 3. (17:18) Amelia Park Handicap (1MW) 1000m
7 Macroy (Bet Now: $4.20) is a beauty for the Bruce Watkins and I think she can make it 3/3 this time in. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight ago where she had three wide cover before peeling wider on the turn and finishing off strongly to score a narrow but impressive win. Isn’t badly in at the weights after the claim and this doesn’t appear to be much stronger compared to last start.
6 She’s Vital (Bet Now: $6.50) just had to hold a forward spot from the inside gate to be in the finish. Ran down the straight at Pinjarra last time where I thought she was given a lovely steer by Jade McNaught and the mare finished too good for her rivals. Loses nothing with Jerry Noske taking over and the inside gate just has to be used to advantage and she’ll go close.
1 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $6.00) comes through the Macroy race from two weeks ago where I thought he did a really good job in defeat given he was wide no cover throughout on sped yet kept finding and was only narrowly beaten on the line. 1000m at Ascot does seem his bread and butter and with better luck in the run this time around, he can win this race for sure.
Race 4. (17:55) Cyril Flower Stakes 1200m
The huge query is 4 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $1.95), the talennted mare for Adam Durrant who is probably the best of the second tier mares in WA, with the first tier being Arcadia Queen, Galaxy Star etc. This mare was dominant during the Mares series during the Perth Carnival, winning the Jungle Dawn and La Trice. 1200m is short of her best, but she’ll get back and be very strong late.
1 First Among Equals (Bet Now: $3.70) has been a ripper for a while and is back with Lindsey Smith after a stint with Darren Weir. Has had two runs back in WA, the latest being in the Scenic Blast a fortnight ago when just failing to pick up stablemate Mr Motown in a real upset, with the winner being near $101 in betting. Horse should be hard fit now and is a proven weight carrier.
What to do with 2 Rebel King (Bet Now: $18.00). He comes through the Scenic Blast a fortnight ago where he had a relatively good run just off the pace but when it came to the crunch, he didn’t really fire a shot and was most disappointing behind Mr Motown. On current form, it’s a no, but at his best, he can certainly beat these. Just depends if he has that desire anymore.
Race 5. (18:30) Carol Hull 50th Birthday Handicap (64+) 1500m
Might need one more but can’t let 1 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $5.00) go around without me. His resumption here three weeks ago was fabulous, getting a mile off them in the run before looking for room in the straight, not getting much and you could make a case he should have won. Once he gets out to a bit longer in trip, he’ll really come into his own, but the resumption was too good to ignore.
11 Dickoletto (Bet Now: $6.50) is a hit and miss galloper for the Pearce team but no doubting that when he brings his best, he’s a Saturday class horse. Ran at the midweeks over 1400m here last Wednesday and the win just has to be put down to Pike and another magical steer, finding the gaps at the right time before bursting through and that customary Pike riding action lifting the horse late. Harder here, but now he’s in form, he’s worth a look.
I’ll take a chance on 4 No Say In It (Bet Now: $10.00), who resumes for Lindsey Smith. This bloke hasn’t raced since August 25 at Belmont when down the track behind Luke’s Gold, pulling up lame post race. He’s been given a good break and looked pretty forward to my eye when winning a 1200m Belmont trial in okay time. Market probably the best guide, but he’s up to these for sure re ability.
Race 6. (19:05) Challenge Stakes 1500m
I’ll take a chance on the Adam Durrant trained 9 Assestro (Bet Now: $12.00). This filly hasn’t raced since January 5 when beaten a lip by Sliced Bread over the mile here in a race which has turned out to be a decent form reference via Angelic Ruler. Has since trialled at Lark Hill over 1450m and was given a good hitout there when second. Fitness won’t be an issue I think so I’ll go her way in a competitive race.
7 Creative Hero (Bet Now: $2.25) is a Team Williams trained gelding who has won his past two. Bolted up to win the maiden two back at Bunbury before racing in a Class 3 over 1400m here at the midweeks where he had the good sit just behind the speed before letting down when the gaps appeared and was impressive to the line. Harder here, but a bit to like about the way he’s going about it.
3 Regal Power (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Team Williams trained three year old who comes through the Bunbury Classic where he got back in the run, never really looking a winning threat, but he worked to the line strongly to run third to the above average filly Angelic Ruler. Up to 1500m looks idea, gets gate one and I think he’s the best chance of the Bob Peters runners.
Race 7. (19:40) Chereena Horne 40th Birthday Handicap (76+) 1400m
I think each way at double figures you can’t go wrong with 5 Red Publisher (Bet Now: $12.00), who is on the seven day back up after racing at Pinjarra last Saturday where I thought he ran really well in defeat when beaten narrowly by Alpha Sky, who controlled things in front and kicked hard when required. Kilo weight swing in his favour and maps to get a good run near the speed, plus back up to 1400m looks ideal.
9 Special Delivery (Bet Now: $9.00) looked to trial up really well prior to resuming over the 1400m here three weeks ago and I thought the win was great. Sat wide in the run, with cover, before peeling out on the turn and though he took a while to get there, his last 50-75m was very good as he really surged, wanting to win. Just needs to repeat that effort to go close here.
If they overdo it in front, look for 7 Mizlecki (Bet Now: $10.00) to be warming to the task late. Quality mare for Fred Kersley who is first up. She hasn’t raced since the Winter Carnival, which ended with a fab win in the Belmont Oaks over 2000m. I think whatever she does here, she will improve on, but the trial at Belmont last week wasn’t too bad and she’ll be strong at the end.
Race 8. (20:15) Own The Dream Handicap (64+) 1800m
I think a safe option in the get out is 1 Avidus (Bet Now: $7.50), who is absolutely flying this time in for the Steele Casey team. Not sure what to make of the last start romp over the mile here given he stacked them up in front before Pateman asked for the effort on the turn and he put them away quickly. His chances will probably depend on what Beaucount does. Will that horse set up a 10+ length lead or will he ease back like normal. If it’s the latter, Avidus could control things and prove hard to beat again.
3 Crystal Valley (Bet Now: $4.50) looks to be absolutely flying at the moment for the Colin Webster stable. Tough effort two back over 2100m here before stepping back to 1800m where she was ridden cold, probably for luck, and when the gap appeared late, she dashed and savaged the line late to win. Creeping up in the weights, but always have to respect a mare in form.
Up in trip, expect 10 Beaucount (Bet Now: $17.00) to go to his usual tactics of rolling along on speed and giving his rivals something to chase. Had a six week freshen up and has had two runs after that little break over unsuitable trips, and I think he hasn’t been too bad each time. Getting out to more of his distance, I think he’ll do his thing in front and look the winner for a long way.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 7 Macroy
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Amelia’s On Fire
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 5 Red Publisher
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 11
Leg Two: 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 8, 10
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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