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The Caulfield Carnival wraps up this Saturday, headlined by the first of the ‘Big Three’, the Caulfield Cup (2400m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Caulfield Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Caulfield Cup

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Race 1. (12:15) Magic Millions Grand (bm80) 1700m

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Back Me

10 Eagles Crag (Bet Now: $2.30 TOP ODDS) looks a very progressive animal for Archie Alexander that should take a power of beating here. Backed with confidence on Benalla Cup Day where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted in good style. Fitter and up in trip with strong form lines, he’ll do me.

Danger

5 Seiner’s Express (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) has the Maher/Eustace polish and commands respect. The way the track played at Flemington last time, he had no chance and was good in defeat behind the very much in form Mr Brightside, a horse who beat Eagles Crag first up, so the form does tie in nicely. The only threat.

Long Shot

4 Saracen Knight (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is a very interesting runner. Go back to this time last year, he was being talked up as a potential Melbourne Cup horse, but things didn’t fall into place. Has been given a good break and with three jumpouts to get ready, I’d suggest he’s forward enough to run a positive race.

Race 2. (12:50) Tile Importer Trophy 1400m

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Back Me

1 Vianello (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for James Cummings since contesting the Jim Moloney at Sandown, her first run since early August, and I thought she ran a super race chasing a good speed when third to Queen Of Dubai. Back to this level, she appeals here as a winning threat.

Danger

2 Morioka (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited back to 1400m. Chris Waller trained filly that comes through the Edward Manifold where I think the mile just found her out when down the track behind Elusive Express. Back to this level, she can settle closer in the run from the good draw and be strong late.

Long Shot

3 Stern Impulse (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is on the quick back up for Shane Nicholls after racing at Ballarat on Sunday. The race shape wasn’t to her liking, especially given she was 1100m to 1400m, but her effort was sound when third. Has that run under the belt and overall, this is a thin race.

Race 3. (13:25) Gothic Stakes 1400m

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Back Me

2 Park Avenue (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) commands respect. Team Freedman trained three year old that ran last Wednesday at Rosehill. He was back near last in the run and spotted those in front a decent start but was good late when a close up third. He can sit closer in the run and prove hard to beat.

Danger

3 Extreme Flight (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) looks a smart type for Team Freedman. The Blinkers have really switched this guy on. Bolted up in a maiden at Moe two back. Then went to Sandown and was much too good for them, including a likely type in Linas Legend. He’s heading in the right direction and should prove hard to beat.

Long Shot

Back to 1400m is a big tick for 7 Prince Alexander (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS). I was keen on his chances in the Stutt at the Valley. Once he got the split 400m out between runners, he looked the winner, but couldn’t quite finish it off and tired late. Back in trip with Winkers on, expecting a much more sharper horse.

Race 4. (14:00) Ethereal Stakes 2000m

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Back Me

3 Stalking (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks to be ticking along nicely towards the Oaks. This girl resumed in the Edward Manifold. Hit a flat spot initially but picked up and was really good to the line and through it, racing like a horse that wants more ground, which she gets here, and has more upside than most.

Danger

10 Kapalua Sunset (Bet Now: $2.15 TOP ODDS) is heading towards the Oaks and looks one of the main contenders. Admittedly it was just a Kyneton maiden last time, but she made an absolute mess of them in bolting up and Brett Prebble is keen to stick with en route to the Oaks. 2000m no issue and despite the class/depth rise, is a key threat.

Long Shot

11 Daisies (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is still a maiden but has Oaks written all over her. Good late in the Thousand Guineas Prelude before going to the Edward Manifold when back near last and worked home strongly late in the piece behind Elusive Express. To my eye, she just looks a perfect Wakeful/Oaks filly. Hard to beat.

Race 5. (14:35) Neds Classic 2000m

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Back Me

6 Gunstock (Bet Now: $3.50) deserves another chance for the Price/Kent team. Arrogant maiden win two back at Cranbourne. Then went to the Super Impose at Flemington and hit the flat spot but was good late when a narrow third to El Patroness. Fitter and up to 2000m on the home track, he appeals.

Danger

4 Tiz Magic (Bet Now: $7.00) is another of these Price/Kent runners ticking along nicely towards the Derby. Impressive debut win at Wangaratta then ran super in defeat in the Super Impose, strong to the line and through it, suggesting 2000m here will be ideal and has to be given respect.

Long Shot

9 Teewaters (Bet Now: $18.00) is an Archie Alexander trained three year old that rises in grade/depth but he’s a progressive three year old. Didn’t beat a great deal at Ballarat last time but he was dominant, leading throughout and giving them a spanking. Worked well between races at Ballarat alongside Eagles Crag, so I think he commands respect.

Race 6. (15:10) Moonga Stakes 1400m

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Back Me

7 BeGood Toya Mother (Bet Now: $9.00) looks to be back on track. He hadn’t done much since his Rupert Clarke win, and the stable had tried to get him to take a sit, but I think last start in the Testa Rossa proved the best and only way to ride him is to roll on speed. He fought on gamely, only nabbed late by Chaillot. If he brings that effort here, he’ll take beating.

Danger

1400m is the query with 1 Zoutori (Bet Now: $3.90) given he looked to be heading down the Salinger/Sprint Classic path, and might well be, but a 1400m lead in? Not sure about that, but stable is in form and this horse is just so well in at the weights. Just missed in the Gilgai and his class factor will carry him a long way.

Long Shot

2 Morvada (Bet Now: $17.00) will put himself on speed and look to give his all. Sat near the speed in the Paris Lane two weeks back at Flemington and tried hard, but couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up fifth to Justacanta. He was 1100m to 1400m so has the run under the belt now so should be better off.

Race 7. (15:45) Tristarc Stakes 1400m

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Back Me

3 Nimalee (Bet Now: $4.20) is ready to win and she gets her chance here. Excellent from the back fresh in the Theo Marks behind Chat. Then went to the Golden Pendant where she sat on speed and loomed to beat Vangelic but that horse had a picnic in front and kicked on too strongly. Third up, just looks a perfect set up.

Danger

2 Colette (Bet Now: $2.00) is flying and with a wet track likely, she will take beating. Definite pass mark fresh in the Memsie before going to the Makybe Diva when back and closing off with real purpose late behind Incentivise. Well documented her problems since, which has forced her to come to this path, but she has a bit on these re class and a bit of juice in the track is ideal.

Long Shot

10 Steinem (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very progressive mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that should be suited up to 1400m. Resumed over 1200m at Mornington where she was dragged back from the wide gate and was never really a winning factor but her finale was very good. Might need this as well, but she is capable if things fall into place.

Race 8. (16:30) Alinghi Stakes 1100m

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Back Me

6 Bless Her (Bet Now: $6.00) looks to be in for a good prep. Formerly with Shea Eden, she had her first run for Clayton Douglas a few weeks back at Sandown and closed off strongly over an unsuitable trip when second to Esta La Roca, a 1000m specialist. Fitter and up in trip, she has run well at blacktype level before so expecting something similar.

Danger

2 Varda (Bet Now: $3.70) should prove hard to beat here for James Cummings. Resumed in a strong 1000m race at Warwick Farm where she had to burn the candle between the 800m-400m and that burn just told on her late when second to Lord Olympus. Fitter and back to Mares grade, she appeals.

Long Shot

5 Paul’s Regret (Bet Now: $31.00) is certainly capable if she produced anything near her best. Resumed in the Cockram several weeks ago at Caulfield and failed to beat a runner home behind Probabeel. She’s better than that, so starting again, she is a market watch for sure against this lot.

Race 9. (17:15) Caulfield Cup 2400m

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Back Me

Not sure I want to dive into the short odds of 2 Incentivise (Bet Now: $2.70), but I can’t tip against him. He is the horse to beat, quite clearly. He is nothing flash to the eye to look at when he is winning, but he just keeps finding and was strong in the Turnbull. I think only bad luck or him going backwards beats him. Just has to hold his form and he wins.

Danger

16 Nonconformist (Bet Now: $10.00) is ticking along beautifully. He comes here with the perfect platform for the back up. It was a 600m dash in the Might And Power last Saturday and he closed off strongly, just missing out on picking up Probabeel. That is a good platform…just the query is 2400m.

Long Shot

I’m with Spanish Mission for the Melbourne Cup, but the best of the locals I feel is 3 Explosive Jack (Bet Now: $14.00). Whether he will be suited here is unknown, but I think this will be a lovely pipe opener and clean the cobwebs out for the first Tuesday in November. Can he win here? Of course he can and has to be respected.

Race 10. (17:50) Caulfield Sprint 1000m

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Back Me

8 General Beau (Bet Now: $9.00) for me in the get out. Ellerton/Zahra trained three year old that comes back to 1000m after racing in the Danehill down the Flemington straight when back in the run and closing off strongly when second to Kallos. Fast run 1000m, he’ll sit off the hot speed and be strong late.

Danger

10 Curran (Bet Now: $6.50) is an absolute beauty for the Tolson/Proctor team. Backed with confidence first up in a 955m at the Valley and under a lovely steer from Cartwright, he was able to wear down a speed demon, Yulong Command. Harder here, but he’s very genuine and should be around the mark.

Long Shot

Good test here for 6 He’s A Balter (Bet Now: $6.50) but he’s flying at the moment for Will Clarken. The ride from Meech last time won him the race when winning at this track/distance. Sent straight to the front, controlled and was far too good for them late. Harder here, but hard to knock him and how genuine he is.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Incentivise

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 10 Eagles Crag

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 3 Stalking

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3

Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 9

Leg Three: 2

Leg Four: 3, 6, 8, 9, 10

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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