16/10/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Sapphire Stakes day

Not sure what to make of 2 Shared Ambition (Bet Now: $1.95). The ‘Pros’ are thinking he’s a Group l horse, and if so, he should be $1.50 here and win. Visually, the win at his Australian debut here was very good. To counter what the eye saw, I don’t think he beat a great deal, despite a couple of subsequent winners to come from the race. Rather watch than back, but concede he’s a nice horse.

4 Creedence (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to be going well for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Got the confidence boost he needed to win two back on the Pakenham Synthetic before going to the Ansett Classic at Mornington when back in the run and finishing off okay to run third to stablemate Valac. This race doesn’t appear to be overly strong and the trip will be no issue. He looks value.

You can just about lock in that 7 Alienated (Bet Now: $35.00) will win a 3000m race at the Valley this night racing season. Cliff Murray has the old boy flying. He ran over 2400m at Mornington last time and I think with clear air, he wins. Just no luck in the straight when seemingly full of running, eventually running third to Shepard, who looks progressive. He’s one that can add value to exotics.

12 Tavistock Dancer (Bet Now: $3.50) looks to be back on track. He had been terrible to start the prep, but there were good signs for him at Mornington on Grand Final Day and I think he should have won. Just had no luck at a vital stage when wanting to get clear and by the time he did, the race was over. Big tick that Olly remains on, he’s down in the weights, home track, upside…like him.

11 Tysonic (Bet Now: $6.50) looks suited at 2000m third up. She ran over 1800m here on Underwood Day where she didn’t have much luck in the straight when appearing to have something to offer when fifth to No Effort, who franked that form in the Pinker Pinker Plate. Like that Johnny Allen remains on and from the wide gate, she should get clear air from the start.

13 Blandford Lad (Bet Now: $6.50) is a progressive mare for the Gelagotis team that is looking for three on the bounce. Finished off strongly from the back to win at Sale two back before going to Moe where she produced something similar and got up near the peg in a really good win. Clearly her hardest test to date here, but she’s down in the weights and in form.

The market will tell you how forward 2 Nelson (Bet Now: $8.50) is. If he’s right, then based on his form when trained by Aidan O’Brien, he’ll be beating these. He hasn’t raced since the Arc De Triomphe last year when beaten only 4.5L by Enable, a race regarded by some as the best in the world. On form, he should be winning, but I think wait to see the last 10-15 minutes of betting to determine if he’s ready or not.

3 Kiwia (Bet Now: $16.00) is sneaky flying for Archie Alexander. He comes through the Pushin Shapes race on Underwood Day where he was back near last in the run in a race totally dominated by those on speed, but I thought he closed off quite well late in the piece. He has a fab track/distance record and looks to be right on track to go and improve on that record.

9 Top Of The Range (Bet Now: $27.00) looks to be going okay and could provide some value to exotics. He comes through the JRA Cup at the Valley where he was never really likely given the soft tempo, but he found the line well enough and was a definite pass mark behind Captain Cook. Reckon he wants further and while he has no turn of foot, he’ll keep chipping away.

It was hard to miss how unlucky 11 Royalty (Bet Now: $4.60) was last Wednesday at Bendigo over 1400m. He was bolting behind them and was going to burst through but every run Lane wanted, it closed, and you could easily make a case he was a good thing beaten. Should eat up the 1600m and with clear air this time, despite somewhat a rise in depth, he’s one of the hardest to beat.

8 Serious Liaison (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Danny O’Brien trained three year old that comes back to the mile after contesting the Derby Trial over 1800m at Flemington where he was sound in defeat behind Adelaide Ace after getting slightly held up early on in the straight. Looked like he wanted a bit further, so interesting he comes back to 1600m, but has ability.

5 Oscar Boy (Bet Now: $6.00) looks a talented animal for Jason Warren. Really liked the way he knuckled down to win on debut at Bairnsdale before stepping up to the mile at the Valley and I think he should have won when third to Vegas Jewel. He was badly held up behind tired runners and should have just about won. Draws to get clear air from the outset and be strong late.

5 Columbia (Bet Now: $4.50) looks primed to run well for Will Clarken. He ran over 1200m at the Valley on Moir night where Jamie Kah gave the gelding a sweet steer just off the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Lagerfeld, but the run was still good in defeat. Like him up in trip and sitting off a good speed, he’ll be strong at the end I’m sure.

1 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $4.00) is a really talented horse for the in form Mitch Freedman stable. Had little to no chance first up at Caulfield behind Dawn Dawn before racing on Benalla Cup Day where he was given a sweet steer just off the speed and finished best to get the job done. Think the rise to 1400m will be ideal for the gelding and he does have a good third up record.

3 Bad Wolf (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Lloyd Kennewell trained gelding that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since July 6 at Flemington when contesting the Winter Championship Final and being outclassed behind Reykjavik. This guy can sprint well fresh and really liked the way he trialled last week at Cranbourne, plus he can land on speed without much pressure it seems.

6 Haunted (Bet Now: $4.00) for me. Was on him in the Testa Rossa but just thought six weeks between runs and chasing a hot speed, he couldn’t quite dash well enough, but kept on and was only beaten a lip by Renewal. He’ll take really good improvement off that one would assume and he remains really well in at the weights, so in a tricky/competitive race, I’ll go his way.

1200m at this level looks the A1 trip for 4 Zoustyle (Bet Now: $2.15) and he’ll give this a shake. He showed really good sustained speed in the Testa Rossa over 1200m here last time and gave a mighty kick under Prebble, but just found Renewal too good, right on the line. 1200m at this level sees him right out, so for his fans, hopefully he can jump, roll and pinch it.

3 Handsome Thief (Bet Now: $18.00) is an interesting runner. Chris Meagher trains this seven year old, who put together a good sequence of runs in Queensland, including an impressive win at Doomben. Hasn’t raced since August 24, so fitness levels are a bit unknown, but he has residual fitness on his side and I think a fast run 1200m will be right up his alley, so not dismissing him, and his recent Mornington jumpout was good.

Clear air, normal luck, and 4 Condo’s Express (Bet Now: $5.00) will be winning. Richard Laming has this bloke flying it seems. He trialled last Monday at Cranbourne and gee he looked to move well under an absolute hold when a narrow second, and did it without the blinkers. On race day, he’s been a much better horse with them on, so if that trend continues, and with the form around him, he’ll be winning.

Sprint racing and at the second tier level is the set up for 11 Anaheed (Bet Now: $8.50) so she’ll take some beating here. She comes through the Tea Rose where she tried hard but 1400m is a bridge too far and she tired late behind Funstar, who obviously ticked that form off in the Flight. Like her back to 1200m, she’ll land on speed and prove hard to run down for sure.

I think the Adelaide filly 12 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $18.00) commands some form of respect. She resumed on the Parks track at Morphettville just under three weeks ago where Jerry Chau gave the filly a 12/10 steer behind the speed and it looked a case of how far, but first up, she just ran out of condition late. Think she’ll come right on from that and she is a multiple Stakes winner from the Adelaide Carnival.

I reckon 7 Temple Of Bel (Bet Now: $27.00) is a bet here each way. She’s had a couple of runs back from a break and has been quite good each time. Thought she made up good ground fresh at Geelong behind Secret Vega before going to the 1400m here when back off a crawling speed, but still made ground and produced good late splits behind Harbour Views. Third up at the mile, back to Mares grade, she’s likeable at odds.

6 Fidelia (Bet Now: $2.80) is flying for Robbie Griffiths. The problem is that she’s showing no early speed this prep and she can have all the best late speed. Means nothing without early speed, and that’s been her downfall. Forget the Blazer run. Haut Brion Her walked them in front and gave nothing else a look in, and Fidelia had no chance. If she can be within range on the turn, she’ll be hard to hold out.

11 Silent Roar (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Team Hawkes trained mare who was a good winner at the Valley two back before remaining there for the Stocks Stakes when outclassed but far from disgraced behind Princess Jenni. She should get a sweet trip from the inside gate, gets a bit of weight relief and does have a good record here, so an improved showing wouldn’t shock.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Condo’s Express

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 12 Tavistock Dancer

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Temple Of Bel

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 4

Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 9, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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