The $1 Million Golden Rose (1400m) is the first major of the season in Australia and it’ll be run and won this Saturday at Rosehill. The favourite will be boom filly Nechita for Patinack. She was quite dominant a few weeks back at Warwick Farm and she’ll take a stack of beating. But I don’t think it’ll be a one act affair, with horses such as Kabayan, Your Song and Shamexpress all posing as serious threats.
Several cracking gallopers will be kicking off their campaign in the $200,000 Group ll Theo Marks Stakes (1400m), including Fast Clip, Fat Al and Tullamore, all for Gai Waterhouse. This race shapes up to be a beauty.
Horses going towards the Newcastle Cup (2300m) and/or Metropolitan (2400m) will look for a confidence boost in the $125,000 Group lll Kingston Town Stakes (2000m). Strawberry Boy, an impressive Warwick Farm winner last weekend, is looking to rise his rating in order to qualify for the $2.5 Million Caulfield Cup (2400m).
But for me, the highlight will be the $100,000 Listed Sheraco Stakes (1200m). Why? Because we will see the return of the champion mare More Joyous, who is going towards the Cox Plate (2040m) alongside stablemate Pierro.
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Race One: McGrath Handicap (80) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Gangster’s Choice was a good thing beaten last start over this track/distance when he was caught deep with no cover and was only nailed in the last stride-and-a-half. He has had a fortnight to recover now, so being third up here he should be cherry ripe for this and he’ll be awfully hard to hold out for John O’Shea and whiz kid James McDonald, who found some form back home in New Zealand at Te Rapa on Wednesday.
Don’t Back Me: High On Believing is a nice type, but first crack at 1500m against a couple of handy types at this time of year is a big ask. It’s hard to doubt Chris Waller at the moment when he’s placing his horses, but this does look a tad too tough.
Big Danger: Big watch on Tohunga for Gai and Nash. Produced an amazing fourth in the Queensland Derby when sitting three deep throughout. Has had one trial to prepare for this, a second to More Joyous. He looked very slick there and he does appear to get a soft lead.
Roughie: Mon Soleil was gallant last Saturday behind Strawberry Boy but found the weight rise and extra 100m that bit too far for him. Back 100m now, drops 1.5kg in weight, drawn perfectly, Brown back on board, definite danger.
$250 Gangster’s Choice Free Bet
Race Two: The Iconic Race Handicap (75) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Keen on Westchester. Her form in Melbourne was strong, where she competed against horses such as Bonaria, Dayita and Callanish, all well above average. In her Sydney debut, she sat last, peeled out wide and found New Beginning too good over the 1400m at Rosehill. The extra 100m looks perfect, there appears to be a bit of speed in the race and she does have upside, while some of her rivals are at the end of their campaigns.
Don’t Back Me: Arinosa is the lay of the day for mine. For me, she is a horse that needs a tight turning track so she can ping off the bends and pinch the race.
Big Danger: Fast And Sexy found the 1800m too much last start behind Sindarin. Her form has been ok this time in and in a weak race, she can definitely improve at odds.
Roughie: Sweet Talkin Woman is the opposite of Arinosa. She needs a bigger track and Rosehill will suit her nicely. Her last two starts were at Canterbury and she has run well without troubling the judge. The form from last start is very good because the winner is a Derby horse and the third placegetter won well at Wyong during the week.
$250 Westchester Free Bet
Race Three: Parramatta Generation Handicap (75) 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: I am a fan of Hoylonny and he looks nicely placed to record his third win from 11 starts. He has raced against some quality animals eg Wild And Proud, Upbeat, Laser Hawk, Ocean Park etc etc etc. His two runs this time in behind Strawberry Boy have been good enough and he drops significantly in grade here. If he doesn’t win here, I don’t know where connections go.
Don’t Back Me: There must be some confidence with the Waller stable in regards to Coup Acclaim given he would have bolted in during the week but they have instead elected to tackle the harder race. I think they have made a mistake because this is a big leap in grade for him.
Big Danger: It’s such a bad race that Merensky Reef comes into play. He has done nothing for 12 months but this is the easiest race he has contested since he won last. He’ll lead from the barrier and in a race with not much depth, he can definitely surprise.
Roughie: Keep an eye on Dragonzone. I think he is going to be a Cups horse in 12 months time, but I think he can run a cheeky race in this event after a freshen up.
$250 Hoylonny Free Bet
Race Four: Sebring Sprint/Theo Marks Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I’m going to steer clear of the two key Waterhouse runners and instead for the rock hard fit Centennial Park. Good first up run in the Missile, sat four wide with no cover in the Warwick Stakes and was beaten less than two lengths, then found the 1600m too far last week in the Chelmsford. Back to 1400m and back to Rosehill, where he flies, is the big ticks in his favour. $7.50 is a good price for a proven WFA performer.
Don’t Back Me: As I said, I’d steer clear of the two key Waterhouse runners, Fast Clip and Fat Al. Both are well above average, but I think they are both a risk first up over the 1400m on a bone dry surface. Happy to watch them go around at this stage.
Big Danger: Only the remarkable horsemanship of Hugh Bowman got Dystopia home first up in the Toy Show. She is a fresh horse hence she races best when her races are spaced. She has had three weeks since that win and you’d think she’ll get the gun run from the inside barrier. I give her a big chance.
Roughie: He is very poorly weighted against these and is rising many lengths in grade, but I really like Waterford Hill. He is well above average. He toyed with them in three runs during the Autumn/Winter. Trialled superbly at Tatura and although I doubt he’ll win, expect him to attack the line.
$250 Centennial Park Free Bet
Race Five: Sharp Sheraco Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: More Joyous $1.30 into $1.24…Enough said. Class gets her home.
Don’t Back Me: Next.
Big Danger: Streama should run a nice second as she heads towards the Myer Classic. Her first trial was terrible, but she looked alot sharper in her second and latest trial, when finishing fourth behind Satin Shoes. She is back on target.
Roughie: Gai’s Choice was electric during the winter, winning three of her four starts and finishing third in the Tatt’s Tiara (1400m) at Eagle Farm. She’ll sit back and work home.
$250 More Joyous Free Bet
Race Six: De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: It’s a two horse race I think between Nechita and Kabayan. I’m sticking with Kabayan. Should have won the McNeil at Caulfield but he was caught four and five wide with no cover and had no chance. His effort to just get beat was outstanding. Back to Sydney, Nash will send him to the front, he’ll be dictating and it’ll take a star (Nechita perhaps) to gun him down. At the prices, I’ll go with Gai and Nash.
Don’t Back Me: Two horse race. The others just lack the x-factor to win a big one.
Big Danger: Nechita is a beauty. You knew she was after her first trial when she beat Sizzling, Queensland’s best two-year-old. She made mince meat of her rivals on debut before having a break, resuming in the Silver Shadow and she just blew them away. From all reports, she has been flying in trackwork and is spot on for this. However, at $2.20, I feel she isn’t a betting proposition.
Roughie: Your Song has the best form in the race- a 1.3L second to Pierro. That automatically puts him in the mix.
$250 Kabayan Free Bet
Race Seven: Kingston Town Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Strawberry Boy is a serious racehorse. He wouldn’t be out of place in a Caulfield Cup, but first he needs to win this, and I think he will. Spanked his rivals first up in a weakish race. Then last week he had no idea what he was doing but was still too good for his rivals. He still has enormous upside and he should just about win this. But at $2, he isn’t worth backing at this stage. Hopefully he gets out to $2.50-$3.
Don’t Back Me: I am not sure about Stout Hearted. Sure, he has been racing well of late, but his last two starts have been a concern. He only just took care of a weak benchmark 90 race, then he was safely held by Glencadam Gold and Permit in the Premier’s Cup. I just think they are trying to do too much too soon.
Big Danger: Maules Creek has ran a couple of cracking races in WFA company this time and drops back to handicap level. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Cassidy slide forward and get a sit behind the top pick and look to wear him down late.
Roughie: Ironstein was the eye-catcher of the day a fortnight ago here over the 1500m when resuming. He sat midfield on the fence, was under pressure a little way out, worked to the outside and got home very nicely for fourth. Look for him to do the same before he heads to Melbourne.
$250 Strawberry Boy Free Bet
Race Eight: Tab Sprint Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I’ll go for value in the shape of Midnight At Ascot. He resumed a week-and-a-half back at Canterbury and didn’t have the best of luck. He got into a nice spot, travelled well in the run, but when it came to the business end of the race, he had no luck and at Canterbury, if you don’t get a clear run, you can’t win. He got home well enough for third. Second up record isn’t great, but Cassidy from barrier one is a big advantage. A throw at the stumps to end a fantastic day of racing.
Don’t Back Me: Eucumbene is a talented horse on his day make no mistake. But barrier 16 against this lot seems mission impossible. Shinn will need to produce a gem.
Big Danger: Aeronautical hasn’t done anything since his two-year-old days, which is a worry. But he has had two trials to prepare him for this and he has looked strong in both hitouts. Don’t be surprised to see the old Aeronautical race on the weekend, because at his best, he’d put a gap on these.
Roughie: Hardbreak Hotel pulled his head off last start and weakened out of it, so I think it was a forgive run. Go back to his first up performance where sat last and stormed home to nail his rivals right on the line. A repeat of that run and he could finish top four.
$250 Midnight At Ascot Free Bet
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