There is a little glimpse of Spring in the air this Saturday at Caulfield with a quality group of sprinters set to take their place in the Group lll Sir Joh Monash Stakes (1100m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:45) TROA Supports Jockeys Trust Plate (78) 1400m
4 Violent Snow (Bet Now: $14.00) was a difficult watch here a fortnight back for her backers, me being one of them. Four wide no cover on speed for the trip and did a really good job to fight on like she did. Provided she has overcome that gut buster in good health, I think she is a great play here in a fairly open contest.
9 Pakaya Prince (Bet Now: $6.00) produced an unbelievable effort two back at Rosehill after doing a power of work when third to Invincible Knight before going to Sandown last Wednesday where he was given a beaut ride on speed by Ben Thompson and the horse found plenty under pressure to win. Looks to map okay here, he’s tough and loves a fight.
13 Mr Optimistic (Bet Now: $10.00) could be the sleeper here at odds. Tony Noonan trained galloper who comes through the Leodoro race here a fortnight back where he got a fair way back in the run but you had to like the way he finished off his race when a close up sixth to the Mick Kent runner. Should be getting hard fit now and is a great knockout hope.
Race 2. (12:20) John & Denise Cobcroft Handicap 1200m
1 Bandipur (Bet Now: $2.50) had to come to town after what he did first up at Moe. The market push said he would win but the manner in which he won was probably not expected. He absolutely trotted up eight lengths. Time was at least six lengths quicker than the other two 1100m races on the card, and that was first up.
10 Aljawzaa (Bet Now: $5.50) is a smart looking filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Debuted in December with a win at Gawler (Metro) before being tipped out. Resumed at Sandown and looked to hit a flat spot at early on in the straight but was very good late. Eats up the 1200m here I think and rates highly.
5 Evolutionist (Bet Now: $41.00) is a nice looking type for Robbie Griffiths who debuted over 1000m at Bendigo and I thought his effort was pretty good late in the piece, closing off strongly to run second to Takemehomemister. Stable are very good when sending them to town and he does appear to have enormous upside.
Race 3. (12:55) Henry Dwyer Racing Handicap 1200m
I think Henry Dwyer can win the race he sponsors via 7 If Not Now When (Bet Now: $7.50). This filly has bumped into Unique Lovely at her past two, the latest here a fortnight back and I thought she was outstanding in defeat considering she was near last at the top of the straight. Draws to get a lovely run here and is well in at the weights.
3 Moonlites Choice (Bet Now: $3.60) was a dominant winner during the Swan Hill Carnival before going to the Unique Lovely race here a fortnight back where she got a mile back in the run and worked home with real purpose to run a close up fifth, beaten under two lengths. Extra 100m looks perfect and if she is within striking range on the turn, she’ll take some beating.
1 Hot Dipped (Bet Now: $7.00) is a classy Tasmanian filly that resumes on the mainland for the Brendan Mcshane yard. She had an outstanding Summer prep, sweeping through all the 3YO fillies races until the Tassie Oaks when second to Parthesia. Trial leading in looked very good and she has class on her side.
Race 4. (13:30) Laming Racing Handicap 2000m
1 Kiwia (Bet Now: $2.30) is a really nice looking type for Darren Weir who had really confident market support when racing here a couple of weeks back and aided by a lovely ride just off the pace, he pounced at the right time and drew clear late for a dominant win. I see no reason to jump off here.
4 Royal Order (Bet Now: $6.50) was backed late to beat Kiwia here a fortnight ago but the move backfired due to another backfire- the blinkers. He sat a bit closer than expected and was quite keen in the run. If he can relax better in the run here, and perhaps sit a pair or two further back, he’ll take some beating.
10 Arohata (Bet Now: $21.00) deserves a crack in town for the Ciraon Maher camp. She has won her last two races, both coming over 1900m on the Geelong Synthetic and while she has lacked a turn of foot, she has toughed it out very strongly and showed pretty good staying potential. I think she can measure up here.
Race 5. (14:10) National Jockeys Trust Plate (90) 1700m
Keen here each way on 12 Bling Dynasty (Bet Now: $5.50). This horse has been great in two runs back from a long spell for the Paul Preusker yard. His last run came over 1400m at Flemington where he got back and closed off with real purpose to run sixth to Cannyescent. The rise to 1700m is perfect, he has upside and stable is in form.
1 Onpicalo (Bet Now: $7.00) is a talented miler for Mick Price who was absolutely luckless here a fortnight back over 1800m when getting badly held up behind tired runners when a close up fourth to Radipole. That run tells me that beyond a mile is no issue. Wide gate and weight are the worries, but he’s tough and in form.
If they do overdo it on speed, then a horse like 4 Lucky Paddy (Bet Now: $12.00) could surprise at odds. He ran in the Provincial Plate at Flemington three weeks back where he got back in the run and just stayed there really behind Riydah. Third up last time in he was four lengths off Boom Time. Good enough for this.
Race 6. (14:50) TAB Supports Jockeys Trust Handicap 1400m
6 Enigman (Bet Now: $4.20) showed his true colours with a spank job of his rivals two back at Bendigo before racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where Williams gave him a peach and he looked home but he just lacked the killer punch late when a narrow third to My Paisann, who ran well last Saturday. Confident he can win here.
2 Nikitas (Bet Now: $8.00) comes through the My Paisann race here two weeks ago and I think you just have to put a line through the run. He was wide no cover for the trip on a good speed and was fighting until the final 150m when feeling the pinch. If he can get cover here, I think he’s right in the game.
7 Wayanka (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who did a really good job in the Thaad race at Flemington three weeks back. Williams seemingly gave him every chance in the run just off the speed and loomed to win but he was racing nearer the inside and I don’t think that was the place to be. He can bounce back here back to 1400m.
Race 7. (15:30) PFD Food Services Sir John Monash Stakes 1100m
Going to give the nod to the noted fresh performer, 5 Murt The Flirt (Bet Now: $10.00). Brendan McCarthy trained sprinter who is very good when he is right, as we have seen right throughout his career. His Spring/Summer prep was pretty solid, with the highlight being a third in the Magic Millions Sprint behind Target In Sight. He is lethal when produced fresh, his jump outs have been slick and maps superbly.
1 Lord Of The Sky (Bet Now: $4.60) is back to terrorise punters but he does find a very winnable race here to kick off his second coming after a failed stint at stud. Most recent trial looked outstanding to the eye, but he does always trial well. Still, if he brought his A-Game and was 100% genuine, he’ll beat these.
4 Daytona Grey (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented sprinter for the Macdonald/Gluyas team who should improve big time off his first up effort at Morphettville three weeks back when warming to the task late behind Cashed. Was down to run back home this Saturday, but instead the stable and stable rider come to Melbourne with this bloke.
Race 8. (16:10) LUCRF Super Supports Jockeys 1200m
2 Sullivan Bay (Bet Now: $4.00) bounce back to winning form here a fortnight back in a near identical race at this track/distance where she was ridden a treat on speed by Cory Parish, leading all the way at good fractions and showing super fight late. Looks to map well here and while she struggles to go back-to-back, I’m respecting her here.
6 Divine Chills (Bet Now: $3.80) comes right into play. Quality mare for John Sadler who was ridden a treat by Ben Thompson over this trip at Sandown last Wednesday, parked in a beaut spot behind the tempo before being given clear and finishing best for a narrow but impressive win. Should get a suck run behind the tempo and gets Beau Mertens steering.
1 Beatniks (Bet Now: $7.00) is a talented mare that resumes for the Matty Dale after formerly being with Steve O’Dea in Brisbane, where she was a constant Open Handicap/Blacktype performer. 1200m is short of her best, but she does have class on her side and she does have some very good fresh stats.
Race 9. (16:45) OTI Racing Handicap 1400m
8 Schism (Bet Now: $3.40) is a mare who is low flying at the moment for Ciaron Maher. She comes through the Leilani Final on Saturday where she was ridden a treat on speed by Beau Mertens and she just kept finding to record quite a dominant win. Rises sharply in grade/depth, but maps well, hard fit and in form, plus down in the weights.
9 Invinzabeel (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through the Cannyescent race at Flemington three weeks ago over 1400m where he looked to travel well in the run but as soon as he was asked for the effort, he dropped out badly and didn’t pull up 100% post race. He is a hot and cold horse, but if he is hot, he can win this for sure.
12 Vital Importance (Bet Now: $10.00) also comes through the Leilani Final last week. She had to do it a bit of work from the wide gate and perhaps ridden a bit too close to the speed but she stuck to the task gamely to run second to Schism. I think with a more patient steer, she can turn the tables, and she likes Caulfield.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Schism
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Kiwia
VALUE: Race One Number 4 Violent Snow
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 7
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 8, 9, 12
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
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