The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday at Randwick with a bumper nine race card, highlighted by the Group l All Aged Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out seven metres from the 1600m-Winning Post; Out five metres for the remainder.
Race One (12:05) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Still Undaunted (Bet Now: $6.00) clearly on top for me here. Progressive three year old for the Cavanough yard who is building up a nice record. Led all the way to win two back at Corowa before going to Scone where he unleashed a brilliant finishing burst to grab victory on the line. Showing really good promise and I think he can measure up here.
Big Danger: 5 Tiger By The Tale (Bet Now: $9.50) is on the quick back up for Danny Williams after resuming on his home track at Goulburn on Monday where he sat last in the run before presenting the widest on the turn and finishing off with real purpose to score a narrow but impressive win. Like that he is backing up here, a rare ploy used by the stable.
Long Shot: 7 Atlantic Sentinel (Bet Now: $11.00) is a proven Highway performer who will make sure the others know he’s here. Ran over 1200m at Wagga last time out and worked home well late behind the talented Dollys Due. Randwick 1200m looks perfect for him and he will be strong late.
Race Two (12:40) : IGA Liquor Handicap (81) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Untamed Diamond (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very good mare that is second up here for the Richard Collett yard. Resumed on Feb 13 at Randwick where she got a mile back in the run yet finished off her race with real purpose when second to Your Way, who of course franked the form and the from overall out of that race has been good. Trialled up well last week, and she is worth the gamble each way I think.
Big Danger: 8 Louie Sea Kay (Bet Now: $13.00) resumed in a heat of the Provincial Championship at Goulburn and gee he was a real eye catcher, finishing off with purpose to run fifth to Maryore. That form at the time looked suspect but it was well and truly franked last week in the Final with the quinella running first and third in the Final. Good record in town and goes very well second up.
Long Shot: 1 Believe (Bet Now: $21.00) is a quality mare that resumes for the Cummings camp. Her opening prep came around this time last year where she placed in the Oaks behind Sofia Rosa before going to Adelaide and running gamely behind Abbey Marie. Prepared for her return to the track with a couple of trials. No doubt better suited over further, but she has class on her side. See what the market does.
Race Three (13:15) : Mostyn Copper Group Frank Packer Plate 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Mongolian Wolf (Bet Now: $3.60) is a very good three year that is now with the Darren Weir camp after racing in NZ. Hasn’t raced since racing in the NZ Derby where he finished down the track behind Gingernuts. We know what Weir can do with tried runners, and that Derby form has been well and truly franked.
Big Danger: 1 Acatour (Bet Now: $2.40) had been a bit of a tease in his first couple of runs this time in, but he showed sharp improvement when the blinkers went on in the Carbine Club (1600m) when showing a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. 2000m is the query, but he has the class/ability.
Long Shot: 5 Rock And Swing (Bet Now: $14.00) looks a knockout hope here. He was specked at odds in the Tulloch (2000m) where he got a mile back in the run and had to stick to the rail but was making up nice ground late behind Jon Snow, who of course won the Derby seven days later. Randwick 2000m looks ideal and he will be strong late.
Race Four (13:50) : TAB Hall Mark Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Redzel (Bet Now: $3.60) is a slight risk at 1200m, but I will take the chance on him. He comes through the Galaxy where he was given every chance in the run by Dwayne Dunn and for the most part he had the race won but was bloused late by the stablemate Russian Revolution. If this race was 1100m, I’d declare him, but 1200m is the query. If he gets the soft run and is cuddled, I think he wins.
Big Danger: 1 Takedown (Bet Now: $6.00) is a beauty that resumes for Gary Moore. Group l winner first up after a brilliant campaign at the end of 2016, which saw him win the Winterbottom before going to Sha Tin where he did Australia proud in the International Sprint. Trialled up well in winning at Rosehill and he is lethal when produced fresh.
Long Shot: He’s not one of my horses, but I am giving 4 Counterattack (Bet Now: $7.00) a look here. Ran in the two feature sprints during the Melbourne Autumn, the Lightning and Newmarket, and failed each time. Freshened up and looked to trial sensationally to the eye at Rosehill recently. If he brings his best, he’s right in this.
Race Five (14:25) : Sharp JRA Plate 2000m:
Back Me: Confident that 8 Happy Hannah (Bet Now: $7.00) can run well here third up. Hasn’t raced since the Emancipation (1500m) at Rosehill where she got back in a slowly run race but finished off quite well I thought behind Zanbagh. Stable love to target races third up into a prep, and this mare has been crying out for 2000m this time in. She gets it now.
Big Danger: 4 Astronomos (Bet Now: $2.90) has come back in super order this time in for the John Thompson yard. Absolutely bolted up here two back before racing in the Neville Sellwood where he closed off strongly but couldn’t quite reel in Assign. Right down in the weights, gate one, C Williams steering. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 5 Green Sweet (Bet Now: $7.00) might be underestimated here given the lowly profile of the trainer but respect him big time here. Went within a lip of recording a remarkable first up win at Rosehill but couldn’t quite get past Hogmanay. Then went to the Albury Cup where Johan rode him superbly and he toughed it out to beat Cool Chap, which isn’t something to brag about, but he was only second up off 10 month break.
Race Six (15:05) : Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Hard to go past 1 Invader (Bet Now: $1.85). Team Snowden trained youngster who missed the Slipper due to injury and instead was freshened up for the Sires where he was given a lovely ride from Bowman and the colt attacked the line strongly to get the win. Should only improve with the run under the belt and the extra 200m appears to only be beneficial. Generally the best horse wins the Champagne and Invader is that.
Big Danger: 8 Whispered Secret (Bet Now: $5.00) has to go in. There was alot of merit in her win last Saturday in the Fernhill. Probably wasn’t the greatest of rides from Collett, but to his credit, he didn’t panic and allowed the filly to relax within herself and she just cruised to the front. I loved her last 150m when she was strongly challenged yet held that and drew clear late. She’s very promising and is a major threat.
Long Shot: 7 One More Honey (Bet Now: $14.00) dodged the Slipper path and was fresh into the Sires where she was just one of those horses who was back in the run and as we know, it was a day where it was impossible to make significant ground. The run was actually pretty good in defeat. 1600m is perfect, she has the fresh legs like Invader and she does tend to like Randwick.
Race Seven (15:45) : Schweppes All Aged Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Le Romain (Bet Now: $4.00) for me here. Buttering up on this star four year old after his disaster in the Doncaster. Was trucking up nicely early on but then got into a nasty spot when the pace slackened and from that point on, it was just a nightmare for his backers. He’s much better than that, and keep in mind that he did win the Cantala fifth up last time off a Randwick mile run.
Big Danger: 9 English (Bet Now: $3.30) does come here under somewhat of an injury cloud, but no denying her class and how well she is racing this time in. Looked all over a winner in the TJ and was given a 12/10 from Shinn, but no horse could have held out the finishing burst of Chautauqua. Won this race last year and looks to be going better 12 months on.
Long Shot: 7 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $17.00) has been the story of the Autumn. Caused a near massive boilover in the Galaxy when a narrow third to Russian Revolution before backing up seven days later and bolting up in the Star Kingdom. Been a while since he has raced at 1400m, but he does get speed favours and is an absolute swimmer, so the wet track is a big tick.
Race Eight (16:25) : McGrath Estate Agents JHB Carr Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Prompt Response (Bet Now: $5.00) clearly on top for me here and is one of the better bets on the program. Trialled up really well prior to resuming in the PJ Bell where she had the charmed run behind the speed and presented as the winner but her fitness just gave out late when second to Diddums. Confident now that she has the run under the belt, as well as the step up to 1400, she rates highly.
Big Danger: 1 Raiment (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented filly that spanked the older mares first up in the Birthday Card before being a heavily backed fav in the PJ Bell and yes she was ridden poorly, but I think she was just flat after the brilliant fresh effort. Look out for the third up bounce back.
Long Shot: 15 Lilac Lane (Bet Now: $34.00) is a smart filly for Bryce Heys that is probably outclassed on ratings/form, but she does have scope and has shown good promise in her short career. Worked home with purpose two back down the Flemington straight before going to Pakenham where she couldn’t quite quicken when fourth to Chavuma. Has trialled well on Soft ground, and from the good draw, she can sit just off the speed.
Race Nine (17:05) : The HKJC Trophy (100) 1400m:
Back Me: Going to give 8 Sort After (Bet Now: $12.00) another look here. Looked to trial just fair prior to resuming in the Star Kingdom where she got back in the run and just stayed there in a leader dominated race, won by Jungle Edge. Trial since was okay, but we know that she is very good on her day. Great second up record and if she does go forward, she’ll map well.
Big Danger: 10 Duca Valentinois (Bet Now: $7.00) is the very interesting runner here. First up for Godolphin and John O’Shea who had a pretty solid Spring/Summer prep without winning, but he ran some nice races in quality events. Two trials leading in have been quite good and he does tend to race well fresh, so watch the market and see what it does.
Long Shot: 3 Marenostro (Bet Now: $10.00) is a very good galloper for Chris Waller that drops a mile in grade after resuming in the Doncaster Prelude where the bias was somewhat against him but he still ran very well I thought when third to Spectroscope. He is a bit of a dud away from Rosehill, which is the query, but on his best form, he’s just about better than these.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Invader
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 3 Prompt Response
VALUE: Race Two Number 5 Untamed Diamond
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 15
Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 16.66% of the dividend if successful
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