The Caulfield Carnival wraps up this Saturday with a monster ten race card, headlined by the showpiece event, the BMW Caulfield Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:15) : Mypunter.com Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Sylpheed (Bet Now: $1.90) trialled well at Randwick before resuming here two weeks ago where she produced one of the wins of the meeting when sitting midfield in the run before peeling wide and letting down powerfully to win by over two lengths, drawing clear with every stride. Go back to career start two and she ran third to Impending. That, and the fresh run, should see her take a power of beating here.
Big Danger: 10 Swampland (Bet Now: $17.00) ran well on debut at Moe in the Autumn behind a subsequent Stakes performer before being spelled. She then resumed at Mornington where the punters were on late and they were rewarded with a strong win from off the pace. Trained on the track and there is a stack of upside with her. I think she can measure up.
Roughie: 8 Jennifer Lynn (Bet Now: $13.00) ran well first up at Bendigo behind Ameristrallia, who has franked the form at Caulfield last Saturday. Jennifer Lynn then went to Coleraine and chased hard late to get the job done. Rises significantly in grade, but this is the sort of race where a Darren Weir runner can take the leap, and we see it so often.
Race Two (12:50) : Polytrack Gothic Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Peacock (Bet Now: $16.00) ran in the Poseidon last time out at Flemington where he looked to get a little lost around the turn but he balanced up and found the line pretty well behind Inside Agent. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and looms as a major contender.
Big Danger: 7 Acatour (Bet Now: $2.30) comes to Melbourne after an awfully impressive win at Rosehill last time out over 1500m where he sat off speed before Shinn peeled clear and gee he let down like a really classy galloper. The form out of that race has already been franked via Tower Of Song and Can I Have. Comes here with upside and is in the right stable. Ticks a lot of boxes.
Roughie: 3 Inside Agent (Bet Now: $15.00) won that race at Flemington that Peacock contested and he was impressive, sitting wide throughout before peeling wider and letting down hard to get the job done. Draws gate one, so he should sit closer in the run and has upside. Massive chance
Race Three (13:25) : Crown Lager Allinghi Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: Going with 7 Super Cash (Bet Now: $4.20). She resumed over 1100m here three weeks back where she was given a lovely steer from Williams and found plenty when challenged late to win and draw clear late. That followed some impressive efforts at the jump outs, so the signs are all there she has returned in great order and second up last time in she beat Sooboog, who went on to beat Epsom runner up Dibayani, so the form reads very well.
Big Danger: 1 Miss Promiscuity (Bet Now: $10.00) is the weighted horse to threaten here. She ran in the How Now (1200m) here four weeks back and was just fair I thought behind Secret Agenda. That mare has since failed with excuses but go back to April and she does have a win over Group l winner The Quarterback. Big improver with luck from the gate.
Roughie: 9 Alucinari (Bet Now: $18.00) was luckless first up behind Highly Geared before going to the Sheraco where she sat back in the run and just stayed there behind a Group l performer in Heavens Above. She has since trialled at Randwick and wasn’t asked for an effort behind Japonisme. Go back to the Summer and she was four lengths off Heatherly, who has since placed in the Moir. That reads pretty well for a race like this.
Race Four (14:00) : New Zealand Bloodstock Etheral Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Moqueen (Bet Now: $4.80) surprised many with her win in the Dulcify at Randwick a fortnight ago. But you just have to believe what you saw. She was dominant, sprinting home hard from near last and running around 34 flat for her final 600m. I’m already on her for the Oaks, and her price will be crunched if she gets the job done here. Confident she will.
Big Danger: 2 Sebring Dream (Bet Now: $3.50) is on the back up from the Thousand Guineas last week where i thought her run in defeat was very good given they really steadied up in front mid race and it didn’t suit those out the back. She’s always been touted as an Oaks and finally she steps out to a trip.
Roughie: 7 Tiamo Grace (Bet Now: $12.00) was a strong maiden winner two back at Donald before racing on Murtoa Cup Day over the mile and ran home well late. Step up to 2000m is a big tick, she has upside and is in the right stable, so she is certainly one to include at odds.
Race Five (14:35) : Ladbrokes Caulfield Classic 2000m:
Back Me: Most of these come through the UCI at Flemington and I thought the eye catcher was 8 Kent (Bet Now: $15.00). He looked completely lost on the home turn but I thought his final 150m was very good. He comes here with a sense of timing about him and I think he will love the step up to 2000m.
Big Danger: 7 Highlad (Bet Now: $7.00) came over from NZ with decent wraps and they were somewhat justified in the UCI where he sat on speed throughout and was brave all the way when running third to Wine Bush. The query I have is the start prior he beat Manhattan Street and that horse failed to measure up in the Stutt. On the plus side, he is in the right stable.
Roughie: 6 Inference (Bet Now: $7.00) ran in the Stutt Stakes and he was unlucky not to finish closer behind Hey Doc given he was held on the turn and early on in the straight. Hey Doc ran a beauty in the Guineas so that form is a good pointer for this, and 2000m appears ideal.
Race Six (15:10) : Priceline Pharmacy Coongy Cup 2000m:
Back Me: 2 The Cleaner (Bet Now: $11.00) looks the way to go here. He did his usual thing in front last time out in the Underwood and he was brave as always when sixth to Black Heart Bart. That’s the right form leading in and he should control the race and prove very tough to run down.
Big Danger: 1 It’s Somewhat (Bet Now: $2.30) comes to Melbourne in ripping form after beating up three plodders in the Craven Plate (2000m) last time out at Randwick where he was ridden arrogantly by McDonald and it won accordingly. Draws a soft gate with Bowman aboard and should get every chance.
Roughie: I can’t believe that 10 Calvin Williams (Bet Now: $41.00) is a $41 chance. His three runs this time in have been pretty good when you properly dissect them. The first two were behind a subsequent Stakes winner, Ulmann, and then the Toorak winner He’s Our Rokkii. He then went to the Bairnsdale Cup where he sat on speed and for the most part looked the winner but was bloused late by the lightweighted New York. Down on the minimum and up in trip, he is a knockout hope.
Race Seven (15:45) : Schweppes Tristarc Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Tycoon Tara (Bet Now: $2.35) returns to Caulfield a several lengths better mare since Team Snowden has taken charge. She comes here off the back of a dominant win at Rosehill in the Golden Pendant where she led from the front and gave nothing else a look in. She won’t have it her own way here, but it’s hard to ignore what she’s done.
Big Danger: How good was the run of 6 Danish Twist (Bet Now: $3.90) first up in the Premeire!? Yes she trialled well but gee I didn’t expect her to go within a lip of beating high class sprinters. Back to her own sex now, comes here with enormous upside and she will be strong late.
Roughie: 12 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $10.00) produced one of the wins of the day when racing here a couple of Saturdays back, sitting near last in the run before Oliver weaved his magic wand and got the mare into the clear and she savaged the line to win a Stakes winner in Sovereign Nation. She came to Australia with big wraps and she is starting to show us those wraps were near the mark.
Race Eight (16:30) : BMW Caulfield Cup 2400m:
Back Me: The obvious last year was Mongolian Khan and I think the obvious this year is 11 Jameka (Bet Now: $3.60) in what appears to be one of the weaker Caulfield Cups of the modern era. She spanked them two back in the Naturalism here before going to the Turnbull where she spanked everything bar the main challenger to Winx in the shape of Hartnell. I think it’s either Jameka or the internationals…I’m leaning with Jameka.
Big Danger: 4 Scottish (Bet Now: $7.50) is the first runner in Australia for Charlie Appleby and he means business with a high class animal here. He has been pretty in recent outings, running second and winning respectively. The last time he was at 2400m he ran a 1.5L second to Highland Reel. That horse has since gone on to run well in a Cox Plate last year and was runner up recently in the Arc, so that is world class form. I’m just not sure if he is a genuine 2400m horse, against the best of the best engaged here. Plus, that last start form worries me. On the flip side, his turn of foot is just about superior to anything else in the race.
Roughie: I’m not sure he can win, but I think the horse that’s a silly price is 2 Our Ivanhowe (Bet Now: $26.00). I didn’t mind his effort in the Turnbull behind Hartnell. Got a fair way back in the run and stuck on okay late on a track which would have been hell for his feet, but he seemed to pull up well. I’m hoping there is more cushion for him here, and keep in mind he did run third in a much stronger edition of this race last year and is going better form wise 12 months on.
Race Nine (17:10) : Dilmah Single Origin Teas Caulfield Sprint 1000m:
Back Me: 2 Our Boy Malachi (Bet Now: $3.00) is an old marvel that makes his Victorian debut after a strong return to the track in the Premiere where he looked the winner for most of the straight but he couldn’t quite peg back Takedown. He has an outstanding second up record, including a win over Dothraki and a third at Group l level. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: I can’t believe that double figures was offered for the former champ that is 1 Lankan Rupee (Bet Now: $6.50). He has been off the scene for 12 months, but gee he at his best he is world class, and his recent work, including jump outs, have been very good. Has to carry the grandstand, but he’ll get a suck run off the fence and is a major threat.
Roughie: 8 Viddora (Bet Now: $10.00) is the interesting runner. She resumed in the Lightning at Morphettville and beat home subsequent Stakes winner Ocean Embers before going to the Valley where she went within a couple of strides of beating Heatherly, who placed in the Moir, so that form reads well, and gee she couldn’t have gone any better in a Parks trial last week.
Race Ten (17:45) : Ladbrokes Moonga Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 11 Hopfgarten (Bet Now: $9.00) resumed over 1400m at Flemington where he was kept safe by punters and he ran up to that summation, closing off nicely from the back to run fourth to the heavily backed Ulmann. Stable has a very good record with their runners in Victoria and this bloke does appear well suited.
Big Danger: 10 Mabeel (Bet Now: $12.00) is such an interesting runner. The Busuttin/Young galloper was very good last prep during the Summer/Autumn in New Zealand where he was very close up in a couple of Group l races, one occasion behind Kawi, the best horse New Zealand has to offer. If he comes here with his best form, he is right in this.
Roughie: 16 Lucky Liberty (Bet Now: $18.00) may have been flattered given he was clear of the carnage, but it was really good to see him win here last time out, sitting back in the run before peeling widest and building up uninterrupted momentum to get the job done. He ran fourth behind Hellbent and closed off well first up, so he is right in the ball game.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Jameka
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Tycoon Tara
VALUE: Race Two Number 9 Peacock
Have Your Say: Agree or Disagree with one of our tips? – Leave a comment below.
Early Quaddie Tips (Races Three Through To Six):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg Three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
$50 Investment= 3.96% of the dividend if successful
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10, 12
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Leg Four: 1, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16
$50 Investment= 3.40% of the dividend if successful
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