Nine races will be run and won at Doomben on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:47) Sky Thoroughbred Central Handicap 1600m
I like 3 Thunderous Strike (Bet Now: $4.80). Matty Dunn looks to have a progressive type on his hands here. Eye catching debut over 1050m here behind Full Nelson before stepping up to 1350m at Ipswich where he led, was hard ridden and probably ridden upside down, but his class got him home. Prefer him ridden cold. He can be much more effective steered that way.
1 Baccarat Baby (Bet Now: $3.20) is a David Vandyke trained filly who could be similar to stablemate Miss Quaintly who could be heading to Melbourne for the Oaks. She hasn’t raced since taking care of three rivals over this track/distance just over a month ago. Tick over trial a couple of weeks back at Deagon was very good and she’s got class on her side against these.
I think up to the mile will suit the Ben Currie trained 6 Trooper Kelly (Bet Now: $3.90). Stepped up to 1300m last time on her home track at Toowoomba and she absolutely bolted in, albeit she beat nothing but the way she charged away and ran to the line and through it tells me the mile will be no issue. Stable have had a lean run at the Saturday metro meets of late but this girl could change that.
Race 2. (12:22) Bentleys Chartered Accountants Handicap (85) 2200m
5 Chatelard (Bet Now: $9.50) , on his best form, can certainly beat this lot. Thought that was the case a fortnight back at the Gold Coast but he was too bad to be true and pulled up with Cardiac Arrhythmia in the race won by Fighting Teo. I’m happy to give him another look because on his Sydney form, he’d be too good for this lot.
2 Exoteric (Bet Now: $2.90) looks a definite winning chance. Chris Waller trained stayer who comes through the Tumultuous race at the Sunny Coast three weeks back where he really had no luck in the straight when well backed and you could make a case he should have won behind the stablemate. Just needs better luck and he can win.
9 Antigone (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Barry Lockwood mare who is racing in pretty good form at the moment. Hasn’t been far away of late, working home well a fortnight ago at the Sunny Coast behind the in form Fighting Teo. Never really a winning threat given where she was in the run, but she worked to the line well enough. Needs things to fall into place though, but if they do, a win wouldn’t surprise.
Race 3. (12:57) Vae Group Plate (Class 6) 1200m
10 Good Time Charlie (Bet Now: $10.00) is a horse who looks to be loving life in the sunshine state for Michael Lakey. Two runs for the stable have been rippers, both at the Sunny Coast, the latest when working home well over 1200m behind Tawfiq Boy. The concern is he might want further now and first look on the tighter track, but hard to ignore what he’s produced this time in.
3 Junglized (Bet Now: $3.80) is a visitor from Sydney for Brad Widdup who got things to suit nicely last time at Canterbury, getting a leader biased track and just clinging on to beat an in form galloper in Metamorphic. The stable should always be respected when they are on the road because they rarely leave empty handed.
I think 6 The Mechanic (Bet Now: $4.80) is the obvious. Talented galloper for David Vandyke who has won five of his ten career outings, the latest coming last Wednesday at Ipswich where he was in a bit of trouble but once Lloyd got him clear air, his class came to the fore and proved too good. Bolted up at this track/distance start prior so happy to include him.
Race 4. (13:22) Rostron Carlyle Rojas Handicap 1200m
Happy to side with 1 Cannyescent (Bet Now: $4.80). Had his first run for Desleigh Forster a few weeks back at Doomben where he was completely unwanted in betting, with punters thinking he’d need the run. He probably did, but his class came to the fore and he got close to knocking off Tarzan. Horror record second up but admittedly majority of those runs were in better races than this.
5 Tversky (Bet Now: $2.30) has been an absolute revelation this time in, progressing from a 0MW horse to being an Open Handicap winner, with the latest win coming a fortnight back at the Sunny Coast being a winner. He ran the race in patches but once balanced up, he attacked the line and got the win. Harder here, but confident he can measure up.
3 Raido (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Tony Gollan trained sprinter who resumed in the Tversky race from the Sunny Coast where I thought his effort late was very good, warming to the task with purpose to run a close up fourth to Gary Duncan’s sprinter. I reckon the bigger tracks eg Gold Coast/Sunny Coast suit him better, but if he gets a hot speed in front, he can charge and win.
Race 5. (14:07) JLL Proptech Plate (Class 3) 1350m
9 Francisca (Bet Now: $10.00) is a daughter of Lope De Vega for Steve O’Dea who is racing quite well at the moment. Strong winner over the 1350m here two back before racing over the same trip at Ipswich a couple of Wednesdays back and I thought the ride from young Murphy was a poor one. Just waited too long and by the time he got on his bike, his main threat was full of momentum and gone for the prize. Think the 1350m here is ideal and can definitely win.
15 Miss Quaintly (Bet Now: $2.90) is a quality filly for David Vandyke who is on the VRC Oaks path so it’ll be interesting to see what she does here fresh. Hasn’t raced since July 21 when scoring an outstanding win off a slow tempo over the mile here. Looks a very good type and though this is short of her best, she’ll be charging late.
6 Umberto (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Tony Gollan trained gelding who resumed in the Tawfiq Boy race from the Sunny Coast three weeks ago and the set up probably wasn’t ideal for him but I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off to run fifth, beaten just under two lengths. Has a really good second up record and I think returning to Doomben will really help his cause, where he has solid stats at.
Race 6. (14:42) Herron Todd White Handicap (0MW) 1050m
A dry Doomben track should ensure those on speed will be advantaged, which is why I’m confident 9 Goldfinch (Bet Now: $2.90) can resume a winner. He’s a very nippy customer who is first up for Steve Engelbrecht after a mixed Autumn. He’s always been a barrier trial star and that’s been the case twice. Clearly wound up for a first up win, and he gets his chance here, but the last 100m will be the test.
5 Bold Xaavi (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Garnett Taylor trained son of Testa Rossa who ran over 1000m at the Sunny Coast a fortnight ago where he was up near the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat I thought behind a Stakes class sprinter in Tactical Advantage. That was his first run in five weeks so he should improve off that.
16 Aggravate (Bet Now: $15.00) is five weeks between runs for the Les Kelly stable since resuming at this track/distance where he got a mile back off the pace but I liked the way he finished his race off behind a progressive type in Meet Mr Taylor. Think he wants a touch further, but he’ll be strong late if they overdo it in front.
Race 7. (15:22) Kestrel Solutions Handicap 1600m
Happy to butter up again on 3 Order Again (Bet Now: $2.05). Outstanding first up win over 1350m here, aided by a fast speed. He then went to the Sunny Coast mile a fortnight ago where on face value, I was quite disappointed with his effort, but when the winner is running sub 34 for his final 600m, and with 51kg on his back, Order Again did a good job I think. Third up, he should be ready.
I reckon the trip up north could spark 5 Jaminzah (Bet Now: $26.00) back into action. He hasn’t for five weeks since racing over 1700m at Flemington where he was wide throughout and that extra work just told on him late in the piece behind Sikindarabad. On his best form, he can certainly win this, and always be wary of these Waller horses with strong Sydney/Melbourne form.
8 Veladero (Bet Now: $18.00) comes through the Prioritise race from the Sunny Coast two weeks back and I think just put a line through the run. The tactics were changed, with the stable opting to ride him cold. I reckon that’s the way to ride him but that didn’t suit last time given the tempo was slow. More genuine speed here, he can bounce back.
Race 8. (16:02) Gadens Lawyers Handicap (85) 1350m
8 Reach For Heaven (Bet Now: $3.70) is a former Kris Lees galloper that is now having his first run for the Toby Edmonds yard. I thought he did a huge job in defeat last time over 1400m at the Gold Coast given he was wide no cover throughout yet loomed and probably hit the front for a moment but Looks Like Elvis, who had the suck run behind the speed, got the split and proved too good. Just needs better luck to go close.
4 Old Habits (Bet Now: $9.50) will love the extra trip. Rob Heathcoate trained gelding who resumed in an open handicap over 1200m at the Sunny Coast two weeks back and I didn’t mind the way he finished his race behind Tversky, not getting much room in the straight but finished off quite well. Normally runs flat second up, but convinced he’s come back in super order.
5 Most Exalted (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented son of Street Cry resuming for Mack Griffith. This bloke had a pretty solid Autumn campaign, which ended with a down the track effort in the Scone Cup behind Sedanzer. Good fresh horse, has trialled well at Mudgee in readiness for this and stable should be respected when they travel.
Race 9. (16:42) Surf Life Saving Handicap (70) 1600m
Like 12 Tedder Avenue (Bet Now: $4.60) here. Kevin Kemp has this mare going really well at the moment, her latest run coming a fortnight ago over 1800m at the Gold Coast where she was a heavily backed fav and under Anthony Allen, she proved far too good for them and the race did have depth to it. Back to the mile the only worry, but hard to knock a mare in form.
10 Hotel Coste (Bet Now: $18.00) is a bit of a nutcase upstairs but in recent times he’s slowly getting better. Ran over 1700m at Ipswich last Wednesday where he got back in the run but worked home strongly late to just miss out on the win when a narrow third to Foxy Affair. I think he can run a race here at decent odds, but buyer beware: sometimes he can turn it up.
5 Polemic (Bet Now: $10.00) looks the knockout chance. Stephen Lee has this former Godolphin galloper going great guns at the moment. Good third first up at the Gold Coast behind Tedder Avenue before going to Lismore and appreciating the drop in depth/grade with a spank job, aided by a peach from Jake Bayliss. Good record at the mile and has upside.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Reach For Heaven
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Thunderous Strike
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 10 Good Time Charlie
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 5, 9, 12, 16
Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 8
Leg Four: 5, 8, 10, 12
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
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